除非有奇迹发生，否则印度难超中国

    中国的年均GDP增长率高达8.5%-9.5%，这个数据已经够让人震惊了。然而最近有几份经济报告乐观地预测，到2013年至2015年，印度的GDP增长率将开始超过中国。这些报告之所以做出这一结论，是由于印度近年来出现了一些趋势，例如劳动人口年轻化且受教育程度提高、退休人口相对较少、储蓄率较高等，此外印度政府还在持续进行大范围的结构性改革，以及增加基础建设支出。

    根据联合国的测算，未来印度的年龄抚养比（指工作人口中需要抚养儿童及老人的比例）将会大大得到改善，从2010年的55.6%下降到2025年的47.2%。中国比印度先一步享受到了大量的劳动人口所带来的好处，不过中国很快将进入老龄化社会，劳动人口的数量也将下降。中国的抚养比也将从2010的39.1%上升到2025年的45.8%。在未来10年里，全世界新增劳动人口将有26%是由印度贡献的。因此，印度的技术工人人数也将大大增加，这些技术工人将会大量储蓄，而这笔钱反过来又可以被投资于印度的经济中。

    如果印度能够为人民提供教育、更快地进行推迟已久的商业改革，并且能够处理更大的人口基数所带来的环境后果的话，那么印度只会从这种“人口红利”中得到好处。

    印度的教育体系很不完善，为此印度政府已经采取了一系列措施，这些措施很有希望取得成绩，不过印度政府仍然有大量的工作要做。在印度，只有74%的男性和48%的女性受过教育；而在中国，96%的男性和88%的女性都受过教育。印度的“知识经济”虽然广受吹捧，但是它的知识经济只雇佣了223万印度人，这个数字与7.5亿的工作人口基数相比，实在显得微不足道。

    辛格政府也意识到了这些不足，并且已经开始实施一系列改革，包括在未来几年里划拨600亿美元资金用于扩充初等教育体系；制订法案，以允许外国教育提供商在印度进行运作；以及其它能够促进私营部门投资印度教育业的措施。归功于这些改革，印度失学儿童的人数已经从2000年的1800万人减少到2005年的560万人，而且小学的辍学率也有所下降。

增长障碍

    不过，尽管有这些发展，但是印度未来所面临的挑战仍不免使人感到气馁。目前，只有12%的印度公民接受了高等教育，政府希望到2017年，这个比例能够达到21%。世界知名的印度理工学院（Indian Institutes of Technology）是若干所工程和科技院校的总称，不过它每年只招收7000名学生。印度政府指出，在未来10年里，在2.4亿到2.5亿印度人中将会出现所谓的“技能差距”。目前印度的各种行业培训和技术培训学校每年只能吸收110万名学生。在卡皮尔•席保（Kapil Sibal）这位有才干的、精力充沛的人力资源发展部长面前，横亘着大量艰巨的任务。

    印度的企业改革也只完成了一半。尽管总理辛格的努力值得赞赏，不过传说中的“许可证为王”现象在很大程度上依然存在。所谓“许可证为王”（license raj），是指要想在印度建立和运营企业，就要走许多复杂的手续和繁文缛节。不过政府已经朝正确的方向采取了一些举措，比如印度政府正在努力简化错综复杂的税法，而且许多新的领域也已经对外国直接投资开放了。尽管采取了这些举措，但在世界银行的经商便利指数（Ease of Doing Business Index）排名上，印度在183个国家里仍然只排到第134位。例如在印度建立一座仓库的平均成本（包括获取许可证和执照的成本和联接公用设施的成本）就比中国高了四倍多。

    国大党领导的印度政府在六年前就已经承诺进行改革，但至今收效甚微。改革速度的缓慢也让印度人越来越感到沮丧。加快改革进程是至关重要的，它既能使本地企业更加高效，也有助于吸引外国直接投资（印度吸引的外国直接投资远远落后于中国，而且在2010年还回落了超过30%）。

    最后，在我们为印度的“人口红利”欢欣鼓舞之前，还有一个问题 ：印度次大陆（和全世界）是否真的能承受14亿印度人？加尔各答的人口密度已经超过了纽约两倍多。食品通胀问题正困扰着印度经济。自从去年以来，洋葱以及其它蔬菜价格已经上涨了71%（蔬菜是大多数印度穷人的主要食物）。精简农产品供应链可使印度的食物短缺问题暂时得到缓解，不过从长期看来，环境的恶化将使印度很难大范围地提高农产品产量。

    全球变暖以及“大气棕色云”已经对印度的农业产量产生了负面影响。所谓“大气棕色云”，是指常年漂浮在印度大部分地区上空的一层密集的烟雾，它主要是由于燃烧柴油、木材和牛粪所生的。此外印度长年存在着8%左右的电力短缺。随着越来越多的中产阶级开始购买电视、空调和其它电器，问题只会越来越糟。印度已经是世界第三大温室气体排放国，而且现在印度的人均排放量还很低。目前一个美国人每年排放的二氧化碳几乎相当于13个印度人的排放量。印度的经济繁荣是一种高碳型经济，再考虑到其迅速增长的人口，印度所面临的环境问题似乎比教育和经济方面的挑战更加严峻。

    和印度的经济增长一样重要的问题是：印度和全世界做好迎接14亿个富裕印度人的准备了吗？

    本文作者安佳•曼纽尔是The RiceHadley Group LLC公司的负责人，也是斯坦福大学国际安全与合作中心（Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation）的访问学者。

    译者：朴成奎

    Several recent economic reports glowingly predict that by 2013-15, India will start outpacing China's stunning annual GDP growth rate of 8.5-9.5%. A number of trends in India lead to this conclusion, including a young, increasingly educated labor force, relatively few retired people to care for, India's high savings rate, the massive structural reforms the Indian government continues to undertake, and increased infrastructure spending.

    The UN estimates that India's age dependency ratio (the number of working age people supporting children and the elderly) will improve substantially, from 55.6% in 2010 to 47.2% in 2025. China, by contrast, has already reaped the benefit of a large working age population, which will soon begin to age and decline: its dependency ratio will rise from 39.1% in 2010 to 45.8% in 2025. India alone will contribute 26% of the total rise in the world's entire working age population over the next 10 years, thus -- the argument goes -- adding a large number of skilled workers, who will have larger savings, which can in turn be invested in their economy.

    India will only be able to take advantage of this "demographic dividend," however, if it can educate its people, move more quickly on long-delayed business reforms, and tackle the environmental consequences of an even larger population.

    The Indian government has taken promising steps to improve its inadequate education system, but an enormous amount of work remains. Only 74% of Indian men and 48% of Indian women are literate, compared to 96% (men) and 88% (women) in China. India's much-touted knowledge economy employs only about 2.23 million Indians out of a 750 million strong working population.

    Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government is aware of these deficiencies and has started to implement a series of reforms, including setting aside $60 billion over the next several years to augment the primary education system, tabling bills that allow foreign education providers to operate in India, and others that will facilitate private sector investment in Indian education. Thanks to these reforms, the number of children out of school has dropped from 18 million in 2000 to 5.6 million in 2005, and dropout ratios in primary schools have improved as well.

Obstacles to growth

    Even with these promising developments, however, the challenges ahead are daunting: at present, only 12% of India's citizens enter higher education, and the government hopes to increase this to 21% by 2017. The Indian Institutes of Technology -- a group of universities focused on engineering and technology -- are world-renowned, but offer only a miniscule 7,000 places to students each year. The Indian government has identified a skills gap in between 240 -- 250 million persons in the next ten years. Current vocational and technical training schools unfortunately only have the capacity to absorb 1.1 million students a year. Kapil Sibal, the talented and energetic Minister for Human Resource Development has a herculean task ahead.

    Indian corporate sector reforms are also only half complete. Despite Prime Minister Singh's admirable efforts, the legendary "license raj" -- the elaborate red tape required to set up and run businesses in India -- is still much in evidence. Again, the government has taken some steps in the right direction: it is actively working to simplify the byzantine tax code, and many new sectors have been opened to foreign direct investment. In spite of these promising steps, India still ranks a low 134 out of 183 countries on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index. For example, the per capita cost of setting up a warehouse in India -- which involves the acquisition of permits and licenses as well as obtaining necessary utilities connections -- is slightly more than four times higher than in China.

    Indians are increasingly frustrated at the slow pace of reforms, which the Congress-led government has now promised for the past six years. Speeding up their pace is critical both to make local businesses more efficient, and attract foreign direct investment (which lags far behind foreign investment in China and sank by over 30% in 2010).

    Finally, before we celebrate a "demographic dividend," can the Indian subcontinent (and the world) sustain 1.4 billion Indians? Calcutta's population is more than twice as dense as that of New York City. Food inflation currently plagues the Indian economy: onion and other vegetable prices (staples for most poor Indians) are up 71% since last year. Streamlining the agricultural supply chain can help to relieve immediate food shortages, but in the long run, environmental degradation will make it difficult to vastly increase crop yields.

    Global warming and the "atmospheric brown cloud" -- a dense smog that permanently hangs over much of India from burning diesel, wood, and dung -- negatively impacts crop yields already. To compound the problem, India suffers from chronic electricity shortages of about 8%. And with a growing middle class buying more TVs, air conditioners and the like, the situation will only get worse. India is already the world's third largest-emitter of greenhouse gases, and that is with is current low per capita emissions rate. One American currently creates almost 13 times as much CO2 per year as one Indian. Combine a more carbon intensive, prosperous economy with a rapidly growing population, and the environmental problems India faces look even more overwhelming than its education and economic challenges.

    As desirable as Indian economic growth is -- are India and the planet ready for 1.4 billion more prosperous Indians?

    Anja Manuel is a Principal at The RiceHadley Group LLC and a Visiting Scholar at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation.