利比亚乱局：石油巨头的500亿投资危险了

    上周末利比亚发生了动乱，成了牺牲在阿拉伯世界不稳定性下的第一个盛产石油的国家。许多国际石油企业耗费数年之功，才在这个闭塞的北非国家建立了分支机构，其中最值得注意的是意大利的石油巨头埃尼集团（Eni）。对于这些公司来说，利比亚的动乱实在是个坏消息。自从针对利比亚的贸易制裁被解除以来，利比亚已经成了能源投资的温床。如果现在的利比亚政权倒台，从英国石油公司（BP）到埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）在内的大型油企，很可能会损失成百上千万美元的投资和未来的预期收益，在某些情况下，这种损失甚至可能高达数十亿美元。

    就在一周前，如果有人说穆阿玛尔•卡扎菲可能被赶下台，恐怕还会被人斥为痴人说梦。卡扎菲原本是一名陆军上校，他在1969年夺取了这个人口稀少的国家的政权，当时年仅27岁。自掌权以来，卡扎菲已经用他的理念彻底地改造了这个国家。一提起这个沙漠中的国家，人们总是不免会对这位“中东怪客”非议一番。

    不过就在上周末，卡扎菲似乎突然失去了对权力的掌控。抗议者点燃了政府大楼和卡扎菲的肖像。利比亚动乱的速度之快，几乎让所有人都猝不及防。相比之下，伊朗革命经过了一年的抗议示威，才在1979年迫使伊朗国王下台。不过在这个社交媒体的新时代里，革命的速度似乎也进化到了“微博速度”。

    不过卡扎菲已经决定反击了。与突尼斯和埃及的动乱不同，卡扎菲下令开枪镇压抗议者，似乎没有任何良心上的不安，甚至出动了战斗机来轰炸示威人群。日前卡扎菲在利比亚国家电视台的节目中露面，表示了自己反抗的决心，他发誓将留在利比亚，“直到最后”。

    “茉莉花革命”最终将演变成什么样子，目前还不明朗。现在就断言卡扎菲会下台还为时过早。要知道，卡扎菲躲过了美国的数次直接袭击，而且从残酷的国际制裁中幸存了下来。多年以来，卡扎菲利用利比亚的石油财产贿赂部落领袖，换取了他们的支持。而抗议者们既没有领袖，也没有组织。这次起义失败的速度可能会和它爆发的速度一样快。

    不过如果卡扎菲真的下台了，那么利比亚的大量石油资产的命运将何去何从，还是未知之数。自从利比亚发生动乱以来，国际油市应声上涨，未来的日子里还可能涨得更高。利比亚境内的大多数石油公司都疏散了非必要的人员，并且关闭了一些设施。埃尼集团昨晚表示，该公司已经关闭了其Greensteam天然气管线，这条管线担负着意大利10%的天然气供应。（不过由于意大利拥有后备储备和替代资源，因此预计意大利不会出现天然气短缺的局面。）

    有报道称利比亚的一些港口已经封闭，还有人称卡扎菲引爆了一些石油设施，以“惩罚”他的敌人。不过这些报道大部分未经证实。埃尼集团表示，该公司的石油设施没有任何一处受到攻击，而且只有部分设施暂时关闭了。

埃尼集团的风险敞口

    利比亚每天出口160万桶原油，占世界消费的1.8%。虽然利比亚陷入无政府状态的可能性很小，但也足以让石油贸易商感到恐慌了。不过在短期内，利比亚的供应缺口很容易就能被其它石油输出国组织（OPEC）的成员所填补——比如沙特阿拉伯的闲置产能是每天400万桶原油。尽管如此，利比亚仍然是欧洲高品质石油的重要来源，如果利比亚的供应中断持续下去，那么欧洲一定会深切思念利比亚的高品质石油。

    说起利比亚对世界石油市场的重要性，没人比埃尼集团的首席执行官保罗•斯卡洛尼认识得更深刻了。斯卡洛尼一向对媒体很友好，不过这次他对利比亚局势缄口不言，一直持观望态度。埃尼集团的官员告诉《财富》杂志：利比亚的原油占了埃尼集团原油总产量的13%，该集团每天有244000桶原油产自利比亚。

    埃尼集团很早就进入了利比亚，并自此在该国扮演了重要的角色。卡扎菲上台时，埃尼集团已经在利比亚运营了10年之久。联合国从上世纪90年初开始对利比亚进行贸易制裁，一直到2004年才结束。在这段漫长的制裁期里，埃尼集团是该国境内唯一一家西方石油公司。

    制裁结束后，许多国际石油公司都宣称要重返利比亚。利比亚还有好几处尚未开采的石油和天然气田。利比亚已经和埃克森美孚、英国石油公司、壳牌、法国的道达尔石油公司（Total）和挪威国家石油公司（Statoil）等跨国企业签订了开采和生产协议。

    埃尼集团对利比亚的忠心也得到了回报，2007年，它与利比亚签署了一项长达10年的投资合同，投资额高达280亿美元。利比亚还同意将埃尼集团所有的石油和天然气合同分别延长到2042年和2047年。据称卡扎菲本人从这些销售合同里拿到了一大笔回扣。

卡扎菲的交易

    利比亚现在的石油产量只有上世纪60年代卡扎菲掌权之前的一半。随着钻井和勘探技术的日新月异，利比亚很可能会在世界能源舞台上扮演一个更重要的角色。

    利比亚巨大的天然气储量对壳牌石油公司来说最为重要，壳牌正在升级利比亚的液化天然气设施，以便将大量的天然气出口到英国。同时，壳牌正在利比亚各地开采更多的天然气。2007年，英国石油公司与利比亚签署了一项为期多年的生产合同，合同价值至少为9亿美元。该公司将在一个比整个科威特面积还大的地区同时开采陆地和海洋油气资源。在未来20年里，英国石油公司在利比亚的总投资可能会高达200亿美元。

    2008年，埃克森美孚重新进入利比亚，该公司承诺投资9700万美元，用于开采利比亚的离岸石油和天然气。它还向利比亚政府支付了7200万美元的“签字费”，并且同意出资2500万美元，资助面向利比亚公民的奖学金计划。在未来10年里，预计埃克森美孚花在利比亚的钱还会更多。

    不幸的是，如果卡扎菲被驱离利比亚，那么这些石油公司签署的天价合同将无异于一堆废纸。无论是谁接管了政权，新政权无疑会想要重新协商这些合同，而这将削减石油公司的利润。新政府甚至可能会将石油工业全盘收归国有，永久驱逐所有外国石油公司，就像20世纪30年代的墨西哥一样。

    不过可以肯定的是，利比亚将继续向世界出口石油和天然气。如果卡扎菲政权倒台，利比亚可能会出现一次小小的供应中断。但无论是谁接掌了政权，新政府的第一要务，很可能就是让油井尽快恢复钻油。不过，最终究竟谁能获得这些油井的开采权，现在尚不可知。

    译者：朴成奎

    The instability in the Arab world claimed its first oil-rich victim over the weekend with the uprising in Libya. That's bad news for the bevy of international oil firms that have set up shop in the cloistered North African nation over the years, most notably Eni, the Italian oil giant. Libya has become a hot bed of energy investment since the lifting of trade sanctions seven years ago. Major oil companies from BP to ExxonMobil could now stand to lose millions, and in some cases, billions of dollars in investments and expected future revenue if the current regime falls.

    Just a week ago it would have been unthinkable to suggest that Muammar Qaddafi could be ousted from power. The former army colonel, who seized power of the sparsely populated country in 1969 at the tender age of 27, had totally reshaped the country in his image. It would be impossible to mention the desert nation without some crack about its eccentric leader.

    But suddenly over one weekend, Qaddafi seemed to lose his grip on power. Protesters set fire to government building and burned his likeness in effigy. The sheer speed of the uprising caught nearly everyone off guard. To put it in perspective, it took over a year of protests to oust the Shah of Iran in 1979. But in this new world of social media, revolutions seem to move at the speed of tweets.

    Nevertheless, Qaddafi is determined to fight back, and unlike in Tunisia and Egypt, he seems to have no qualms in gunning down protesters en masse and even using fighter jets to bomb crowds. On Libyan state television yesterday, he showed his defiance, vowing to remain in the country "until the end."

    It is still unclear what will come of this latest chapter of the "Jasmine Revolution." To say that Qaddafi's ouster is a done deal is a bit premature. He has survived direct attacks from the United States and years of crippling international sanctions. He has the support of tribal leaders in the country, who he has bribed for years using the country's oil wealth. The protesters have no leader and no organization. This uprising could fizzle out just as fast as it has exploded.

    But if Qaddafi should fall, the fate of the country's vast oil wealth would be up in the air. Oil markets rallied significantly on the news this week and could move higher in the days to come. Most oil companies have evacuated non-essential personnel and have shut down some of their operations. Eni said last night that it has shut down its Greensteam natural gas pipeline, which supplies 10% of Italy's gas supplies (there is not expected to be any shortage of gas in the country due to backup reserves and alternative sources).

    There have been reports of port closures and talk of Qaddafi blowing up oil installations to "punish" his enemies, but those reports remain largely unconfirmed. Eni said that none of its oil installations have been attacked and that only some were offline.

Eni's exposure

    The mere chance that Libya, which exports 1.6 million barrels of oil a day (1.8% of world consumption), could fall into anarchy was enough to spook oil traders. But any short-term supply disruption could easily be filled by other OPEC members, like Saudi Arabia, which has 4 million barrels of spare capacity at its disposal. Nevertheless, Libya remains an important source of high-quality oil for Europe, which would be sorely missed if supply disruptions persist.

    No one is more aware of how important Libya is to the world oil markets than Paolo Scaroni, the chief executive of the Italian oil giant Eni (E). The normally media-friendly chief executive has stayed mum on the situation and has taken a wait-and-see approach. Around 13% of Eni's total crude production, some 244,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, comes from Libya, Eni officials tell Fortune.

    The company entered Libya 10 years before Qaddafi came to power and has played a significant role in the country ever since. It was the only major Western oil company to remain in the country during the long UN trade embargo against Libya, which began in the early 1990s and ended in 2004.

    Since then, dozens of international oil companies have been clamoring to get back into Libya. The country has several untapped oil and natural gas fields and has inked exploration and production deals with the likes of ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, France's Total (TOT) and Norway's Statoil.

    But Eni was rewarded for its loyalty in 2007 when it entered into a massive 10-year $28 billion investment deal with Libya. The country also agreed to extend all existing oil and natural gas supply contracts through 2042 and 2047, respectively, with Qaddafi reportedly receiving a generous cut of the profit from those sales.

Qaddafi's deals

    Oil production in Libya is now half of what it was before Qaddafi came into power in the 1960s. With today's new drilling and mapping technology, Libya could potentially become a much bigger player on the world energy stage.

    The country's vast natural gas reserves are of primary importance to Shell (RDSA), which is upgrading a liquefied natural gas facility in the country to export large amounts of gas to the UK. It is also exploring for more natural gas around the country. In 2007, BP inked a

    multiyear production contract with Libya worth at least $900 million. It will explore for oil and gas both onshore and offshore in an area larger than Kuwait. Total spending by BP (BP) in Libya could reach as much as $20 billion over the next two decades.

    In 2008, ExxonMobil (XOM, Fortune 500) reentered the country, agreeing to invest $97 million to explore for oil and gas off the Libyan coast. It also paid a $72 million "signature bonus" to the state and agreed to pay $25 million to fund scholarship programs for Libyan citizens. The company is also expected to spend much more money in the country over the next decade.

    Unfortunately for the oil companies, these massive deals would most likely become worthless pieces of paper if Qaddafi were to leave the country. Any regime that comes to power will undoubtedly want to renegotiate the contracts, which could see less profit for the oil companies. A new government could even fully nationalize the industry and kick all foreigner oil companies out forever, similar to what happened in Mexico in the 1930s.

    But there is no doubt that Libya will continue to export oil and natural gas to the world. A small supply disruption should be expected if the regime falls, but whoever takes power will most likely make it a priority to get the wells pumping as fast as possible. Who will ultimately be pumping those wells remains in doubt.