沙特能否拯救油市？

    上周二，暴乱横扫利比亚，导致国际油价飙升。利比亚是全球第18大石油生产国，利比亚动乱预示该国石油开采可能中断。

    Oil prices spiked Tuesday as violence swept Libya, raising the prospect that the world's 18th-biggest oil producer could be taken off line.

    为了缓解国际社会对石油供应震荡的恐惧，石油输出国组织（OPEC）承诺将在必要的时候动用石油储备，并增加产量。不过国际能源署（The International Energy Agency）表示：“从目前的处境来看，这一举措并不必要。”

    尽管如此，投资者显然还是希望石油输出国组织能够挺身而出，在油价上涨到更高位前，能有所作为。上周二，原油期货交易价格在纽约达到了98美元，在伦敦更是达到了107美元，这也是自2008年以来的最高水平。美国的汽油价格近来在略高于3美元（每加仑）的价格区间浮动，不过现在看来，汽油价格有望在今年夏天上涨到3.5美元甚至更高。

    经济学家爱德华•亚德尼上周二在他的博客上写道：“我预期石油输出国组织将生产更多的石油，以避免油价的飙升。他们应尽力减少能源价格上涨所导致的全球不稳定性，这也符合他们的利益。”

    没人怀疑亚德尼的逻辑。不过有石油观察人士质疑道：石油输出国组织是否有能力提高石油产量，并在较长的时间内保持这种高产量？

    对于石油输出国组织的产能的质疑主要集中沙特阿拉伯身上。沙特阿拉伯是世界上最大的石油出口国，2009年，沙特生产的石油占全球石油产量的12%，而且这还不算它的闲置产能。沙特预计其闲置产能大约在每天200万桶左右，不过美国政府表示，沙特的闲置产能要“远远高于”这个目标。

    这些言论表明，严重依赖于石油的全球经济不必因为上周的油价飙升而过分担忧。

    不过并非所有人都相信这些话。杰弗里•布朗是美国达拉斯地区的一位石油工程师，他就对沙特能满足全球石油需求的论调表示怀疑。

    OPEC sought to ease fears of a supply shock, promising to release reserves and increase production if need be. The International Energy Agency said "we are not in a situation where that is necessary."

    Even so, investors are clearly expecting OPEC to step into the breach soon before oil prices rise further. Futures contracts hit $98 in New York Tuesday and $107 in London – the highest level since 2008. Gasoline prices, recently in the low $3-and-change range, look poised to run to $3.50 or higher this summer.

    "I still expect that OPEC nations will pump more oil to avert a spike in oil prices," economist Ed Yardeni wrote Tuesday on his blog. "It is in their interest to do what they can to reduce global instability caused by higher fuel prices."

    No one doubts his logic. But some oil watchers question whether OPEC is actually capable of boosting production and keeping it there for a long time.

    The questions about OPEC's capacity center on the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudis accounted for 12% of global oil production in 2009, and that doesn't count their spare capacity. Saudi Arabia estimates that buffer at 2 million barrels a day, though the U.S. government says Saudi spare capacity is "well above" that stated target.

    Those comments suggest an oil-addicted global economy has little to worry about from this week's price spike.

    But not everyone is convinced. Jeffrey Brown, a Dallas-area petroleum engineer, questions the assumption that the Saudis can meet the world's needs.

    He notes that Saudi production has declined in three of the four years since it peaked at middecade – including an 11% plunge in 2009. At the same time, Saudi oil consumption has soared, making it the 15th-biggest petroleum consumer as of 2008, according to U.S. government data.

    布朗指出，沙特的产量在2005年左右达到顶峰，而在此后的四年里，有三年都出现了下降，在2009年甚至下降了11%。与此同时，沙特的石油消费却出现了激增。根据美国政府的数据，自2008年以来，沙特已经成了全球第15大石油消费国。

    布朗预计今年沙特的石油消费量将达到每天300万桶，比2005年增长50%。目前全世界对石油的需求越来越大，而沙特国内每消费一桶原油，就意味着它可供出口的原油又减少了一桶。

    这意味着沙特要想把出口恢复到2005年左右的全盛水平，就必须要扭转几年以来的下跌趋势，创造新的产量纪录。

    要想达到2005年每天出口910万桶原油的纪录，沙特在2011年必须每天生产1210万桶原油。这几乎比沙特最高年产量还多出10%。

    这可是一笔大“订单”，不过目前并没有特别迹象表明沙特可以执行这笔“订单”。这似乎暗示了油价还会继续上涨，这对恢复之势甚为疲软的美国经济来说可不是好消息，因为美国经济的恢复是建立在全球经济强势增长的基础上的。

    石油输出国组织能否长期保持高产，这个已经让石油观察人士困扰了一段时间的问题，可能明年就会见分晓。如果届时结果正如布朗所预料的那样，那么油价还会涨得更高。

    布朗表示：“如果其它石油国家的生产也受到了干扰——但不是在沙特阿拉伯，那么最终我们可能会明确地得知，沙特究竟可以在可持续的基础上生产多少原油。”不过从最近的中东局势看来，就连这一点也不能保证。

    译者：朴成奎

    Brown estimates Saudi consumption will hit 3 million barrels a day this year – up 50% from 2005. Every barrel consumed at home is one the Saudis cannot export to fill booming demand for fuel.

    That means the Saudis will have reverse years of decline and, indeed, set new production records just to bring their exports back to levels regularly seen during the good old days of the middle of the past decade.

    In order to simply match their 2005 export peak of 9.1 million barrels a day, the Saudis would have to pump 12.1 million barrels a day in 2011. That's almost 10% above the kingdom's highest output for a year.

    That is a pretty big order to fill, with no particular sign that the Saudis can fill it. Those numbers seem to point toward higher oil prices, which is not good news for a weak U.S. recovery predicated on strong global growth.

    The next year may also bring the answer to a question that has puzzled petrol watchers for some time. If the answer is the one Brown is expecting, even higher prices look like a good bet.

    "We might finally find out for sure what the Saudis can produce on a sustained basis," Brown says, "if there are production disruptions elsewhere, but not in Saudi Arabia." And the way things are going in the Middle East lately, even that is no sure thing.