全球滞胀将持续

    我们最近一直在苦苦思索的一个问题是： “我们将去向何方？”——特别是涉及到前几个月来媒体一直在报道的大宗商品涨价问题。

    就全球通胀趋势而言，有一个令人瞩目的例子可以说明剑已出鞘。 随着“核心”消费价格指数（CPI）加速上涨，特别是在中国、印尼、泰国等一些亚洲国家，全球各家公司正利用最近强劲的全球增长趋势和乐观的增长预测，将价格上涨转嫁到消费者身上。

    相对于我们的模型以及当前全球宏观背景（通胀日益加速和利率上调），美国、中国、日本、印度和巴西等主要经济体对于自身增长的一致预测都太高了。

    尽管“核心”CPI与“广义”CPI两者重要性的争论已沦为老生常谈，但这里令人吃惊的地方主要是，人们没有充分认识到， 即便大宗商品价格从目前高位开始回落（即如果中东和北非地区的冲突今天停止，原油价格回落至80-85美元区间），全球通胀依然很有可能 将继续加速，主要理由有二：

    1. 企业将把过于乐观的全球增长预测作为正当理由，从而把上两个季度的价格上涨转嫁给终端消费者，试图同时保护利润率和盈利。

    2. 最近有这样一种全球趋势，即政府公职人员屈从于民粹主义压力而增加补贴、转移支付和薪资，这将继续增加需求导致的通胀压力，并在短期内加剧多种大宗商品目前的供需不平衡。长期来看，这种虚假的消费需求支持可能会造成额外的价格转嫁给终端消费者，中期内可能会阻碍消费增长。

    由于我们都知道关于目前全球增长预期虚高的共识，所以我们就直接跳过，来说说第二点。关于近期增加补贴、转移支付和薪资这种全球趋势，一些具体例子包括：

    • 中国： 由于政府对经济进行再平衡，以加大对国内消费的依赖程度，预计全国31个省都将连续第二年调高最低工资，其中广东、北京和上海等主要省市的上调幅度最大。

    • 印尼： 该国原定于3月取消持续已久的燃料补贴，目前此计划已经废弃。 过去，取消此类补贴已引发多起抗议，并曾导致印尼政府下台，例如20世纪90年代末苏哈托政权的下台。

    • 中东和北非： 说到抗议，约旦、阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥、也门、利比亚和或许最为重要的沙特阿拉伯已通过在国内实行大规模转移支付，从而避开目前和今后的抗议者。 具体而言，沙特皇室上周刚刚宣布了一项高达370亿美元的一揽子福利计划，该计划最终可能被证明是为预防国内社会动荡所做出的徒劳努力。

    • 印度： 在该国的最新预算中（上周一发布），印度政府正试图通过上调所得税减免额度来提振收入。 此外，印度正在提高住房贷款补贴，并拨款1.44万亿卢比用于食品和燃料补贴。 预计今后数周将宣布其他补贴。

    • 泰国： 政府近期刚刚延长了一项为穷人提供免费用电和公共交通的计划。

    • 巴西： 罗塞夫总统刚刚宣布，为巴西的家庭补助金转移计划增加13亿美元资金，这将使更多家庭领到补助金。

    香港在这方面做出的妥协可能远远超过以上国家，由于这一趋势涉及发展中国家和发达经济体之间的比较，从而揭示出一个惊人的有趣之处。 继香港特首曾荫权（香港级别最高的官员）上周早些时候在一片公众抗议+声中遭袭之后，财政司司长曾俊华同意发放现金、退税并对养老金账户注资，每一项均高达6,000港元。 而在上月，他已决定免除2个月的公屋租金 并提供电费补贴，同时坦言发放现金会带来危险的通胀压力。

    面对媒体，曾俊华这样说道： “我们认为这是回应居民需求的最佳方式…”

    鉴于大多数人认为香港是一个相当发达的经济体，看到香港特区政府向民粹主义屈服，发放额外资金 ，这很有意思。 这表明这一趋势可能不再局限于诸如中东和北非地区、印度、中国等发展中国家和地区。

    总而言之，自去年10月份以来，我们始终在为全球滞胀而争论不休。 现在由于石油交易价格高于每桶100美元，大家达成共识已经弄清了通胀组成，我们的任务就是弄清楚如何测定根据股票空头来揭露悲观增长因素的时间。 如果2008年可以作为前车之鉴，股票空头们会又踢又叫，买入下跌时的每一次下探——假如我们正朝着那个方向前进的话；而时间和空间最终将证明一切。

    One question we've been wrestling with lately is: "Where do we go from here?" – particularly as it relates to the commodity inflation you've been reading about for the last few months.

    There's a compelling case that the boat has left the dock with regards to global inflation trends. As we've seen with accelerating "Core" CPI readings, particularly in Asian economies like China, Indonesia, and Thailand, companies globally are taking advantage of recent robust global growth trends and bullish growth forecasts to pass price increases through to consumers.

    The US, China, Japan, India, Brazil are just a few major economies where consensus growth forecasts for 2011 are much, much too high relative to our models and the current global macro backdrop of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates.

    Irrespective of the tired argument between the importance of "Core" vs. "Headline" CPI, the key takeaway here is that even if commodities start to back off their current highs (i.e. if MENA conflict stopped today and crude oil went back down to the $80-$85 range), there is a very high and underappreciated possibility that global inflation readings will continue to accelerate for two main reasons:

    1. Corporations will look to overly bullish global growth estimates as justification to pass the last two quarters of price inflation through to end-consumers in an attempt to protect both margins and earnings.

    2. The recent global trend of public officials caving in to populist pressure to increase subsidies, transfer payments, and wages will continue to add to the demand-side inflationary pressure and exacerbate the current supply/demand imbalances of many commodities in the near term. Longer term, this artificial support of consumer demand is likely to result in additional price pass-through to end-consumers, which is likely to stymie consumption growth over the intermediate term.

    Since we all know where consensus is regarding the current lofty global growth assumptions, we'll just skip right to addressing point #2. A few specific examples of the recent global trend of increasing subsidies, transfer payments, and wages include:

    • China: As the government moves to rebalance the economy towards a greater reliance on domestic consumption, minimum wage hikes are anticipated in all 31 provinces for the second consecutive year, with key populations such as Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai are at the forefront of gains.

    • Indonesia: Plans to remove longstanding subsidies for fuel in March have been scrapped. In the past, the removal of such subsidies has led to protests, which brought down Indonesian governments, such as the Suharto regime in the late '90's.

    • MENA: Speaking of protests, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Yemen, Libya, and, perhaps most importantly, Saudi Arabia have flooded their economies with transfer payments to ward off current and future protesters. Specifically, the Saudi royal family just announced a $37 billion benefits package last week in what may turn out to be a moot effort to prevent a domestic social upheaval.

    • India: In its latest budget (released Monday) the government is attempting to boost incomes through greater income tax exemptions. Moreover, it is increasing subsidies for housing loans and allocating 1.44 trillion rupees for food and fuel subsidies. Additional subsidies are expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

    • Thailand: The government just recently extended a program that provides free electricity and public transportation for the poor.

    • Brazil: President Rousseff just announced a $1.3 billion increase in funding for Brazil's Bolsa Familia transfer program, which will allow even more families to receive benefits.

    Perhaps more so than the other countries, Hong Kong's capitulation on this front revealed an interesting takeaway as it relates this trend with respect to developing vs. developed economies. After Chief Executive Donald Tsang (the highest ranking Hong Kong official) was assaulted amid a wave of public protests earlier this week, Financial Secretary John Tsang agreed to hand out cash, tax rebates, pension injections to the tune of HK$6,000 in each instance. This is in addition to his decision last week to wave public housing rents for two months and provide subsidies for electricity bills while talking up the dangerous inflationary pressures of providing cash handouts.

    Addressing the media, Tsang had this to say: "We find this is the best way to respond to demands from residents…"

    Given that most regard Hong Kong as a reasonably developed economy, it was interesting to see its government give in to populist demands for additional handouts. It suggests that this trend may no longer be contained to developing nations like those of the MENA region, India, and China.

    All told, we've been beating the table on global stagflation since October. Now that consensus has figured out the inflation component as oil trades above $100 per barrel, our task is to figure out how to time consensus' uncovering of the bearish growth factor on the short side of equities. If 2008 is any guide, they will kick, scream, and buy every dip on the way down – provided we're headed there; ultimately, time and space will tell.