余震动摇日本汽车业

    汽车业是由无数零件供应商、装配工厂、物流网络以及经销商组成的一个庞大的、有时甚至是混乱的行业。在面临自然灾害或其它灾难时，这个行业可能显得尤为脆弱。

    汽车厂商都深知洪水、暴雪、泥石流、森林大火等灾害会给汽车生产带来哪些影响。许多经销商都有过汽车存货被洪水和怒潮吞没，或是被冰雹损坏的经历。

    海上也可能发生灾害。2002年，一艘载有2862辆汽车的挪威货船途经英吉利海峡时，在浓雾中与一艘货柜船相撞，继而沉没。

    不过与地震后的日本相比，这些都微不足道了。上周的日本地震、地震引发的海啸，再加上人们对震区核反应堆熔毁的恐慌日益加深，为日本汽车业带来了三重威胁。

    作为全球第三大汽车生产国（仅次于中国和美国），日本的汽车生产网络高度发达，而且格外复杂。日本的高速公路和海港非常拥挤，这是日本的“先天不足”。此外日本汽车业中还有许多人为的复杂因素，例如许多日本厂商都在零部件运输上采取了“零库存”的即时交付制度。这些因素使得日本汽车业成为了一个极为精细、高度平衡的体系。

    如果正常运转的话，这是个极为高效的系统。不过倘若系统中的某根链条出现了断裂，就会影响到整个系统的运转。装配一辆汽车需要差不多10000个单独的零件，一个都不能少。

如何能帮助日本？

    日本汽车业从未遭遇过这么大的破坏。除了地震和海啸造成的损失之外，日本汽车业还需要面对一些次级影响，例如断电、供应短缺，以及高速公路、铁路及海上事故等。此外还有一些第三级的影响。据报道，有些汽车厂家已经暂时关闭，以便员工料理因地震而导致的个人事务。

    据预计，日本几家最大的汽车厂商将会一直关闭到星期三。有些分析人士预测道，更进一步的破坏将持续数月之久。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）分析师科特•桑格指出：“尽管未来几天里，我们可能看到日本汽车业恢复了一些产能，不过由于能源供应和零部件供应的限制，日本汽车业基本不可能在短期内迅速恢复到正常的运行状态。”

    这场灾难的影响之广，令人惊讶。马自达（Mazda）的总部位于广岛，远离震区，因而外界本以为马自达可以幸免于难。不过由于零部件短缺，马自达还是在周一夜里和周二全天暂时停止了日本西部四个工厂的生产。

    此次日本地震对汽车业的影响甚至波及到了欧洲，这充分证明了日本汽车产业的全球跨度。雷诺汽车公司（Renault）在法国的经营与其日本伙伴日产汽车公司（Nissan）有着千丝万缕的联系。戴姆勒（Daimler）的扶桑（Fuso）品牌也在日本经营着两家卡车工厂。大众汽车公司（VW）还拥有铃木汽车公司（Suzuki）19%的股权。

    在未来几周里，美国的汽车消费者也会感受到日本地震所带来的影响。据德意志银行估算，在北美销售的所有汽车中，约有12%源自日本。此外，许多在美国的日本厂商所生产的汽车里，也多多少少包含了某些在日本生产的部件。接下来的五个月正是美国车市销售旺季，因此如果日本汽车业遭受的破坏延续下去，很可能导致车市上的某些产品出现短缺。

    例如日产汽车公司的所有英菲尼迪（Infiniti）轿车都是在日本生产的。日产公司表示，该公司有1300辆轿车在本州岛东部的日立港被海啸冲毁，海啸还损毁了1000辆停放在一家服务中心里的日产轿车，使该公司的出口遭受了沉重打击。这也将使日产公司难以补充美国地区的存货，而目前在美国市场上，英菲尼迪汽车只剩一个月的库存了。

    丰田公司（Toyota）在普锐斯（Prius）轿车上也遇到了同样的问题。由于汽油价格上涨，普锐斯的销量已经出现了激增。不过普锐斯也是全部在日本生产的。一位美国经销商手上的普锐斯新车已经全部卖光了，他对《纽约时报》表示，他甚至只得把用过的普锐斯轿车放在展厅里当样车。

    日本厂商一向以擅于适应逆境、擅于在灾难中随机应变而闻名。最出名的一次是丰田公司的一家制动阀供应商于1997年毁于一场大火，而丰田公司居然在五天内就恢复了生产。因为有其他37家零部件供应商联合起来，提供了机床系统，并且建立了临时装配线，为丰田生产这一急需的零部件。

    这次灾难给日本汽车业带来的破坏是多方面的，它将检验日本汽车业的智慧与创造力。

    译者：朴成奎

    With its sprawling, sometimes tangled array of parts suppliers, assembly plants, logistics networks, and dealers, the auto industry is perhaps uniquely vulnerable to disasters, natural and otherwise.

    Manufacturers are all too familiar with interruptions to production from floods, blizzards, land slides, and forest fires. Dealers have seen their new car inventories wiped out by overflowing rivers, surging tides, and punishing hail storms.

    Catastrophes happen even at sea. A Norwegian carrier with 2,862 cars aboard sank in the English Channel in 2002 after colliding with a container ship in thick fog.

    But there has been nothing like the triple threat in Japan wrought by last week's earthquake and tidal wave, combined with growing worries of a nuclear reactor meltdown.

    As the world's third-largest producer of automobiles (after China and the U.S.), Japan's manufacturing network is highly developed and unusually complex. The natural constraints of Japan's crowded highways and seaports, combined with man-made complications like just-in-time parts delivery have led to the creation a finely-tuned, delicately-balanced system.

    Running smoothly, it is highly productive. But a single disruption anywhere along the line can tie up the whole system. Assembling a car requires some 10,000 individual pieces, and every single one of them is needed in the finished product.

How you can help Japan

    Japan has never seen a disruption like this. In addition to the direct damage caused by the earthquakes and tsunami, there are secondary effects -- coordinated power outages to deal with, supply shortages, interruption of highway, rail, and ship traffic -- and tertiary ripples. Some auto plants were reportedly closed so that employees could cope with personal issues stemming from disaster.

    Japan's largest auto producers are now expected to remain shut down through Wednesday, and some analysts foresee further disruptions lasting months. "While we could see some production capacity come back on line in the next few days, energy supply limitations and parts supply restrictions make a quick return to normal operations highly unlikely," says Kurt Sanger of Deutsche Bank.

    The disaster's impact has been surprisingly widespread. Mazda was thought to have been spared because it is headquartered in Hiroshima, far from most of the damage. But it suspended production at its four plants in western Japan Monday night and all day Tuesday because of parts shortages.

    Demonstrating the industry's global span, repercussions are being felt as far away as Europe. Renault's operations in France are intertwined with those of its Japanese partner Nissan. Daimler's Fuso operates 2 truck plants in Japan. VW owns a 19% stake in Suzuki.

    U.S. car buyers also will be feeling the effects of the disaster in coming weeks. Deutsche Bank estimates that approximately 12% of all vehicles sold in North America originate in Japan. Additionally, many vehicles produced in North America by Japanese automakers contain at least some content that is produced in Japan. The next five months are the seasonally strongest of the year for U.S. sales, so extended disruptions could cause shortages of some products.

    Nissan, for instance, which makes all of its Infiniti brand cars in Japan, said the tsunami destroyed 1,300 vehicles at the Port of Hitachi plus 1,000 more at a service center, impacting exports. That will make it difficult to replenish inventories in the U.S, where only a month's supply of some Infiniti models is on the ground in the U.S.

    Toyota (TM) faces a similar problem with the Prius, whose sales have spurted as gas prices have risen. The Prius is only manufactured in Japan. One U.S. dealer who is sold out of new cars told the New York Times he had resorted to displaying used models at his showroom.

    Japanese manufacturers are renowned for their ability to improvise and adapt in the face of the adversity. Toyota famously resumed production within five days after a fire destroyed a brake valve supplier in 1997. Thirty-seven other suppliers improvised tooling systems and set up makeshift assembly lines to make the needed part.

    The multi-faceted nature of the destruction from this disaster, however, will test all of their ingenuity and resourcefulness.