日本财政危机并非近在咫尺

    三大评级公司都已表示，现在要判定日本大地震是否会导致日本主权债务评级下调，仍为时过早。眼下，惠誉（Fitch）对日本的评级是AA，标普（S&P）给出的评级是AA-，穆迪（Moody's）给出的是Aa2，三家评级公司都决定目前维持评级不变。

    当日本正在竭力应对上周一系列自然灾害带来的诸多麻烦时，这些声明或许能帮助日本暂时免于债务危机。

    在日本，工作人员正在全力避免核融毁威胁，死亡人数在不断攀升，而能源与食品短缺在日本各地蔓延。穆迪指出，据《日本经济新闻》（Nikkei News）援引日本首相菅直人的话称，此次地震和海啸令日本面临“二战以来最严重的危机”。

    穆迪在最近的一份报告中指出，“上周五的地震不会使日本很快陷入财政危机”，惠誉和标普也赞同此看法。穆迪还表示，“我们认为，当前政府的关注点应放在应急救援和重建努力上，不管财政成本是多少。”

    有些对冲基金在此次地震前就已押注日本将现金融危机，他们预计日本庞大的债务（预计相当于今年该国GDP的2.28倍）可能出现违约，或让日元贬值。过去一周，围绕日本财政状况的争论重现，看空者的依据是政府可能不得不借入更多钱以满足救援和重建工作所需。

    任何调低日本主权债务评级的行为，都会加大债务危机爆发的可能性。虽然评级公司都坚称评级只是一方观点，但这些评级往往会决定大型机构投资者能否持有一只债券（还是必须卖出）。评级下调也可能是信用违约互换(CDS)等金融合同的触发事件，迫使资金易手。历史上，评级下调也曾令市场风声鹤唳。全球金融危机期间美国国际集团（AIG）评级遭下调，就是评级决定引发真实灾难性影响的一个典型。

    就日本而言，三大评级机构都表示，它们相信日本有能力筹集所需资金，近期不会调整评级。它们还认为，重建能在未来创造经济活动，或能抵消这些借贷成本。

    不过，惠誉警告称，在政府负债迅速增加的背景下，日本如何拿出一个平衡预算、解决债务压力的可信计划，更具重要意义。并称，如果“(日本国债)收益率持续上升……致该国主权债务处于更不利的地位”，惠誉将考虑将日本列入负面观察名单。在庞大的债务重压下，哪怕利率的微幅上升也是日本所无法承受的。

    穆迪也同意这种观点，并指出如果市场开始抛售日本国债、收益率上涨， “拐点就可能到来”。

    不过，日本长期以来一直向国内民众和机构借钱，这使得利率一直保持在低水平，而且市场稳定。标普相信日本将能进一步发行更多债券，而“无需大幅调高风险溢价”，并预计不会有大量资本外流。

    “当然，这种推测将受到考验，”标普在报告中写道。

    The three largest credit rating agencies have said that it's too early to decide whether the recent earthquake will lead to downgrades for Japanese sovereign debt. Fitch rates Japan AA, S&P AA-, and Moody's Aa2 and all three will remain unchanged for now.

    The announcements may help keep a debt crisis at bay in Japan, as the country grapples with the mounting problems created by the last week's series of natural disasters.

    Workers are fighting to prevent a nuclear meltdown, the death toll is rising, and energy and food shortages are rippling across the nation. Moody's notes that Prime Minister Kan was quoted in the Nikkei News as saying that the earthquake and tsunami created "the biggest crisis facing the country since World War II."

    "The shock from Friday's earthquake does not make a fiscal crisis in Japan imminent," Moody's wrote in its recent report, a sentiment echoed by Fitch and S&P. "We recognize that the immediate focus of the government must be on emergency relief and reconstruction efforts, no matter what the fiscal cost."

    Before the earthquake, some hedge funds had wagered on a Japanese financial collapse, saying that the country would have to default on its massive debt (predicted to hit 228% of GDP this year) or destroy the value of the yen. In the past week, the debate about Japan's fiscal health has returned, with Japan bears pointing to the fact that the government will be forced to borrow even more money to pay for rescue and reconstruction work.

    Any downgrade of Japanese sovereign debt would certainly increase the likelihood of a debt crisis. While the agencies are adamant that their ratings are mere opinions, ratings often dictate whether large institutional investors can hold a bond (or must be forced to sell). Downgrades can also be trigger events in financial contracts, like credit default swaps, that force money to change hands between parties; and they have historically spooked markets. The decision to downgrade AIG (AIG) amid the financial crisis is a perfect example of a rating action having a real and disastrous impact.

    In the case of Japan, the agencies all say that they have faith in the country's ability to raise money as needed, and will take no action in the near term. They add that reconstruction will create future economic activity that could offset those borrowing costs.

    Fitch warns that the rapid increase in the public debt burden will make it that much more important for Japan to come up with a credible plan to balance the budget and deal with its debt load. Fitch added that it would consider putting the country on negative watch if a "sustained rise in [Japanese Government Bond] yields... worsened the sovereign's debt dynamics." Because Japan has such a large debt, it can't afford even a small rise in interest payments.

    Moody's agrees, saying that "a tipping point may be reached" if the market starts to sell JGBs and yields rise.

    However, Japan has long borrowed money from its own people and institutions, which has kept interest rates low and markets stable. S&P believes that the country will continue to be able to issue additional debt "without a major increase in risk premiums, and does not expect major capital outflows.

    "This supposition will, of course, be tested," S&P wrote in its note.