日本地震后最受打击的五大行业

天然气行业

    与世界上很多商品不同的是，天然气的价格在过去一年里实际上下降了，要知道，在去年价格下降的商品屈指可数。

    但是，这种情况不会持续太久。核能发电约占日本电力系统总发电量的30%。上周该国发生大地震后，工人们为避免出现核灾难，已经停止了核能发电。

    现在由于日本核能生产中断，人们认为大量液化天然气必然会被运往该国，从而导致天然气期货交易市场出现反弹。

    上周二，在纽约商品交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange），天然气期货价格连续第三天反弹，上涨了1.2%，达到3.959美元/百万英热单位。不过，尽管天然气价格近日上涨，但与去年相比仍然下降了11%。

汽车行业

    日本是世界第三大汽车生产国，然而由于自然灾害，导致销往世界各地的车辆生产中断。日本的汽车业将举步维艰。

    《财富》（Fortune）的阿莱克斯•泰勒表示，预计日本几家最大的汽车厂商将继续停产。有些分析师还预测说，停产将会延续数月。泰勒还指出，未来几周，美国的汽车购买者会对这场大灾难的影响有切身感受：德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）估计，北美销售的所有车辆中，有12%产自日本；而且，日本汽车厂商在北美生产的车辆中，至少也都有些配件产自日本。

    而未来5个月恰是一年中美国汽车销售的旺季，因此生产的持续中断，有可能导致某些产品缺货。

半导体行业

    日本是为数不多的技术先进的经济体之一，在全球半导体行业拥有举足轻重的地位。正是那些小小的芯片驱动着手机和计算机等各种电子产品正常运转。

    但是，两家主要制造厂暂停运营，会在未来几个月给整个半导体行业造成巨大压力，无形中会推动全球电子产品价格上涨。信越化学工业株式会社（Shin-Etsu Chemical）生产用于半导体中的硅晶圆。该公司宣布，旗下白川工厂已停止运营。该工厂在日本电子晶圆生产中占据的份额已经过半。截至上周二下午，该公司网站表示，由于需要继续接受检测，白川工厂仍将暂停运营。

    “继续停产可能对半导体行业产生重大影响。” 野村国际经济研究部（Nomura Global Economics）表示。该预测公司同时还介绍说，晶圆厂商恢复运营还需要些时日；而且，另外一家重要晶圆厂商Sumco公司设在九州的伊万里（Imari）工厂的停产，也会对半导体行业产生影响。

石油行业

    日本东京一家加油站前竖着一块牌子，上面写着汽油已售罄。

    像这回接连袭击日本的大地震和海啸等自然灾害，往往导致炼油厂停产，结果必然是燃料价格上涨。事实上，尽管日本的几家炼油厂确实已经停止运营，但是，一周多以来，原油价格却首次跌至100美元/桶以下。

    在上周二的电子交易中，4月交货的美国原油价格下滑了3.77美元，跌至97.42美元/桶。日本发生的自然灾害转移了人们对于中东动荡局势的注意力，而后者此前导致石油价格飞涨。

    但是，由于日本是世界第三大石油进口国，而人们预计该国对于石油的需求将减少，这给石油价格带来了下行压力。尽管如此，这仍不过是投机者的猜测而已，实际价格走向可能有所不同。但是，迄今为止，石油价格在下跌。

旅游行业

    长期以来，日本一直吸引着来自世界各地的旅游者。但是，野村国际经济研究部介绍说，尽管大地震和海啸对主题公园和酒店造成的损失微乎其微，但仍然导致这些场所临时关闭，而此举至少会对其收入产生负面影响。

    东方乐园株式会社（Oriental Land Co）负责管理东京迪士尼度假村（Tokyo Disney Resort）。该公司已经关闭了旗下的公园和酒店，以对损失进行评估。不过，它计划本月晚些时候重新开放这些公园和酒店。野村国际经济研究部还介绍说，由于越来越多的日本人愿意待在家里，因此，卡拉OK、保龄球、游戏厅、旅游等休闲娱乐业的其他领域也很可能受到波及。

    译者：大海

Natural gas industry

    Unlike many of the world's commodities, the price of natural gas has been one of the few that has actually declined this past year.

    But perhaps not for long. The production of nuclear power, which accounts for about 30% of Japan's electricity, has stalled as workers try to avert a nuclear disaster following last week's earthquake.

    The power disruptions have helped send natural gas futures rallying on speculation that liquefied natural gas cargoes would be diverted to Japan.

    On Tuesday, natural gas futures rallied for a third day, gaining 1.2% in the New York Mercantile Exchange to $3.959 a million British thermal units. Despite the recent rise, gas is still down 11% this year.

Auto industry

    As the world's third-largest producer of automobiles, Japan could expect major headwinds as the natural disasters disrupt production of vehicles sold across the world.

    As Fortune's Alex Taylor notes, Japan's largest auto producers are now expected to remain shut down through Wednesday, and some analysts foresee further disruptions lasting months. He also points out that U.S. car buyers will be feeling the effects of the disaster in coming weeks -- Deutsche Bank estimates that about 12% of all vehicles sold in North America come from Japan and that vehicles produced in the region by Japanese automakers contain at least some Japanese-made component.

    The next five months are the seasonally strongest of the year for U.S. sales, so extended disruptions could cause shortages of some products.

Semiconductor industry

    Japan is one of a few technologically sophisticated economies to dominate the global semiconductor industry -- those tiny chips that power a myriad of electronics from cell phones to computers.

    But suspension of operations at two major manufacturing plants could present headwinds for the industry in the coming months, potentially pushing prices higher for electronic products globally. Shin-Etsu Chemical, which makes silicon wafers needed to produce semiconductors, announced it has halted operations of its Shirakawa plant, which alone accounts for more than half of Japan's production of electronic wafers. As of Tuesday afternoon, the company's website says the plant remains out of operations as inspections continue.

    "A protracted stoppage could have a substantial impact on the semiconductor industry," according to Nomura Global Economics, noting that it could be a while before operations resume. The forecasting firm also says that suspension at another key facility, Sumco's Imari plant in Kyushu, could impact the industry.

Oil industry

    Natural disasters, like the earthquake and tsunami that pummeled Japan, often force refineries to shut down, leading to higher fuel prices. And indeed, several refineries in Japan have stopped operations, but crude prices have tumbled below $100 a barrel for the first time in more than a week.

    On Tuesday, U.S. crude for April delivery slid $3.77 to $97.42 a barrel in electronic trading. To be sure, the natural disaster in Japan has diverted attention away from troubles in the Middle East, which had sent oil prices surging.

    But expectations of lower oil demand from Japan -- the world's third-largest importer of oil -- has helped put downward pressures on prices. It's still a speculator's guess over where prices could go from here, but for now, they're on the way down.

Tourism industry

    Japan has long drawn tourists from around the world. But while the quake and tsunami only modestly damaged theme parks and hotels, it has forced them to temporarily close, which will likely have at least a negative impact on earnings, according to Nomura Global Economics.

    Oriental Land Co., which runs the Tokyo Disney Resort, has closed its parks and hotels to assess damages, but it's planning to announce a reopening later this month. Nomura notes that there's a widening mood across Japan toward staying at home, so other areas of the leisure industry including karaoke, bowling, video arcades and travel will likely be impacted as well.