天然气价格将保持低位，即便日本需求上升

    自从地震和海啸导致日本一些核反应堆濒临融毁，天然气价格已小幅上涨。一些交易员认定这会引发全球范围内天然气价格更大幅度的上涨，但美国的情况可能不同，因为美国国内可供应住宅和楼宇的天然气不仅价格相对低廉，而且供过于求。

    日本现已关停11座核反应堆，随着其国内多个核电站停运，市场普遍预期这个东亚岛国将需要更多的液化天然气和其他燃料用于发电；核电占日本总发电量的四分之一。另外，市场预计随着日本开始从这场灾难中复苏，原本运往欧洲和世界其他地区的液化天然气货船可能会改道以满足日本需求的增加。

    确实，震后天然气现货价格已经上涨。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank ）称，日益依赖进口天然气的欧洲所受影响可能最大。分析师们预计，从欧洲转移至日本的液化天然气供应量可能达到每年50-120亿立方米，从而推高欧洲天然气中心的现货价格。德意志银行还指出，这可能导致欧洲天然气市场变局。

    我们看到美国天然气市场也有同样的动向，美国天然气期货价格较日本大地震前一天水平已上涨约2.9%。但总部位于马萨诸塞州的能源市场咨询公司IHS Global Insight Cambridge Energy Research Associates的全球天然气总监玛丽•巴克拉认为，至少短期内，美国天然气价格有望保持低廉。

    在谈到天然气时，不妨将美国和北美其他地区视为一个自成一体的岛屿。技术进步和页岩气开发创新已使该地区在天然气生产上相对自足，基本上无需进口液化天然气。事实上，总部位于香港的经纪和投资集团CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets提供的数据显示，目前美国的进口量仅为10亿立方英尺/天，不及其国内供应量的2%。

    另外，巴克拉指出，美国的天然气供应明显供过于求——在刚刚过去的这个冬天，有近3,000口钻好的天然气井没有并网送气。

    而且，美国看来不会出口这些过剩的天然气供应，因为当地缺乏能将大量天然气液化并输送出口的基础设施。CLSA表示，卡塔尔、马来西亚、印尼和澳大利亚是最大的液化天然气出口国，可能会完全填补日本出现的需求缺口。

    但长期来看，Pritchard Capital Partners驻休斯顿的分析师阿纽基•莎玛认为，可能推高天然气价格——乃至美国天然气价格的一个不确定因素，是对核电审查力度的加大，这可能导致管制升级和成本上升。在日本竭力避免核灾难发生的同时，很多政策制定者已开始质疑核电的安全性。例如，瑞士政府周一已正式搁置建设核电厂的计划。在美国，康涅狄格州参议员约瑟夫•利伯曼呼吁，至少在核电安全性得到进一步明确前“放缓”新核电厂的建设。

    The price of natural gas has edged up since the earthquake and tsunami pushed some of Japan's nuclear reactors to the brink of meltdown. Some traders are betting that it will spur a bigger rally globally of natural gas prices, but that probably won't be the case in the U.S. as the domestic market already sits on a glut of the relatively cheap fuel used to power homes and buildings.

    Japan has shut down 11 nuclear reactors, and with several plants out of operation, it's widely expected that the East Asian island will need additional supplies of liquefied natural gas and other fuels to generate electricity. Nuclear power provides a quarter of Japan's electricity, and the expectations are that cargoes of LNG from Europe and other parts of the world will re-route to meet additional demands from Japan as it start recovering from the disaster.

    And indeed, spot prices have risen higher since the earthquake. Deutsche Bank says Europe is perhaps most vulnerable because it is increasingly dependent on imports of natural gas. Analysts predict from 5 billion to 12 billion cubic meters a year of LNG supplies could now be diverted away from Europe and into Japan, driving spot prices higher in the region's gas hubs. Deutsche added that it could be a "a game-change for the EU gas market."

    We've seen the momentum carry into the U.S. natural gas market, too, where futures for natural gas have climbed about 2.9% since the day before the earthquake. However, in the near-term at least, America's natural gas will likely remain cheap, says Mary Barcella, global gas director with IHS Global Insight Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a Massachusetts-based consulting company that specializes in energy markets.

    When it comes to natural gas, think of the U.S. and the rest of North America as an island of its own. Technological advances and the shale-gas revolution have made the region relatively self-sufficient in producing the fuel and virtually independent of LNG imports. In fact, the U.S. currently imports barely 1 billion cubic feet per day, accounting for less than 2% of domestic supply, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a Hong Kong-based brokerage and investment group.

    What's more, Barcella says, the U.S. already sits on a vast oversupply of the fuel – she points to the nearly 3,000 gas wells this past winter that have been drilled but have yet to be hooked up to the natural gas supply system.

    And it's not as if the U.S. would export the excess supply, since the country lacks the infrastructure to easily liquefy large amounts of the gas to sell abroad. Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia are the biggest LNG exports and will likely fill any void for Japan, CLSA says.

    In the long-term, however, the wild card that could send prices higher even in the U.S. is extra scrutiny of nuclear power that could result in more regulations and added costs, says Anuj Sharma, an analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston. As workers in Japan try to avert a nuclear disaster, many policymakers question nuclear safety. On Monday, for example, the Swiss government officially suspended plans to build nuclear plants. And in the U.S., Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut has called to "to slow things down" on new plants at least until safety is further explored.