日本汽车制造商：深受打击，但并未出局

    震后的日本满目疮痍，就像好莱坞灾难大片中的特效场景一样——只不过这次一切都是真的。

    据《美国汽车新闻》（Automotive News）报道，丰田汽车公司（Toyota）派出了两支救援车队，向遭受地震沉重打击的日本北部地区运送食物、水和便携马桶等。这两只车队由6辆运水车、2辆运油车和9辆运货车组成。地震灾区里有丰田的两家零部件工厂和两家分公司，丰田希望向这一地区提供救济。自从上上周五发生地震后，丰田已经关闭了这四家机构。这次任务获得了一些振奋人心的消息。丰田的一位发言人表示，尽管工厂遭受了一些损坏，但是公司并没有接到伤亡报告。

    不过，这次救济行动还不足以让其它地方的装配线重新开动起来。丰田表示，它的12家主要的装配厂将一直关闭到本周二。此外丰田的一位发言人表示，丰田公司可能会因地震而损失95000台产品。在北美，丰田则通过取消加班生产，减缓了生产速度，以保存零部件。

    另两家日本汽车制造商本田（Honda）和马自达（Mazda）也表示，他们在日本的所有工厂会一直关闭到上周日。铃木汽车公司（Suzuki Motor Corp.）在日本的所有工厂则会关闭到本周一。

    现在全日本都在抢救生者、埋葬死者，一边等待来自福岛第一核电站的进一步消息。与此同时，日本汽车业也正在着手应对这场灾难，它很可能使日本汽车业在很长一段时间里无法运转。韩国东阳证券（Tong Yang Securities）的一份报告指出：“我们不指望日本的汽车生产会在短期内恢复正常。在我们可以确定哪些汽车零部件工厂遭受了损失、以及遭受了多大损失之前，很难预测何时生产才会继续。”

    而与此同时，证券分析师们也正忙着做他们最擅长的事——分析哪些证券将成为这场灾难的赢家，哪些证券将成为输家，然后根据分析结果进行押宝。

    一份不完全的表格显示，钢铁制造商、韩国汽车制造商以及二手车所有者将从这次灾难中获益；而输家则包括美国汽车零售商、稀有金属铂和钯的生产商、零部件制造商，以及日本汽车业自身。

    东阳证券指出，在1995年的神户大地震之后的六个月时间里，丰田、本田和日产公司（Nissan）的股票分别下跌了22%、35%和40%，而且他们用了13个月的时间才从地震中恢复过来。

    本田和马自达宣布，他们上周暂停生产。对于本田来说，这意味着他们将损失16600台汽车。HIS环球视野咨询公司指出，日本地震给全球汽车生产带来的损失高达每天36700台。这意味着二手日本车的需求将增加，而价格也将上涨。

    而材料价格则会沿着相反的方向移动。生产降低，意味着对钯和铂的需求将减少，这两种金属主要用于生产汽车的催化转换器。另一方面，马来西亚的艾芬投资银行（Affin Investment Bank）则表示，由于日本震后重建需要大量钢铁，因而钢铁价格将会上涨。而薄、厚钢板及卷钢的供给则受到地震冲击。

    美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）指出，在美国，上市大型汽车经销商受日本地震的影响最大，因为日本汽车业的生产停止，意味着日本品牌的汽车出口减少了，因而日本汽车的销量也随之减少。美国AutoNation汽车租赁公司、彭斯克汽车集团（Penske Automotive Group）以及Group One（美国第四大汽车经销商——译注）等公司至少有三分之一的销售额来自丰田、本田和日产等日本品牌。不过美国银行指出，从总体上看，这次灾难的影响还是比较小的，只相当于全年中有一天出现了供给中断。

    日本汽车业的生产中断，给日本汽车业的亚洲宿敌韩国提供了机会。现代证券（Hyundai Securities）表示：“在全球市场上，韩国汽车制造商是日本汽车业的竞争对手。这次日本汽车制造商的生产和出口出现中断，韩国汽车制造商很可能从中获益。同时有望获益的还有韩国零部件制造商，因为日本和全球其它汽车制造商很可能将更多的业务外包给韩国零部件制造商。”

    当然，没有人想从别人的不幸中获得好处。按当前状况来看，这场灾难在短期内将会带来短缺、反常和间断。不过日本汽车制造商以前就曾接受过灾难的洗礼，而且有成功从灾难中恢复的经验。

    《消费者报告》（Consumer Reports）是美国最具影响力的汽车评论媒体，根据该媒体最近的排名，本田、斯巴鲁（Subaru）和丰田是美国车市上的三家最佳汽车制造商（评判标准是根据预测可靠性和路试结果）。同时，马自达和日产的得分也超过了梅塞德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）和宝马（BMW）等知名品牌。

    就连地震加海啸也不大可能在多大程度上改变这一排名。

    译者：朴成奎

    The scene might have been lifted from from one of those digital effect-laden Hollywood catastrophe movies -- except this time it was all too real.

    According to Automotive News, Toyota (TM) dispatched two convoys of rescue vehicles -- six water tankers, two-fuel tankers, and nine cargo carriers -- to heavily-damaged northern Japan carrying food, water, and portable toilets. Toyota wanted to bring relief to an area where it operates two parts plants, as do two Toyota subsidiaries. All four facilities had been shut down since the earthquake on Friday. The mission got some welcome news. A Toyota spokesman said there were no reports of deaths or injuries, though the plants themselves suffered some damage.

    The relief effort wasn't enough to get assembly lines restarted elsewhere, however. Toyota said it will keep all of its 12 main assembly plants in Japan closed through Tuesday and a spokeswoman says it may lose 95,000 units of production. In North America, Toyota slowed production by canceling overtime shifts to conserve parts.

    Honda and Mazda Motor Corp. have said all their plants in Japan will be closed until Sunday. Suzuki Motor Corp. planned to keep all factories in the nation shut until Monday.

    As Japan rescues the living, buries its dead, and awaits the outcome of efforts to stabilize its damaged nuclear reactors, the nation's auto industry is still trying to come to grips with a disaster that threatens to hamstring operations for a good long while. "We do not expect production to normalize any time soon," says a report by Korea's Tong Yang Securities. "It is hard to predict when production may resume until we can ascertain which auto parts makers have been hit and to what extent."

    Securities analysts, meanwhile, are busy doing what they do best: Figuring out who the winners and losers will be as a result of the triple-headed catastrophe and bet on the outcome.

    An incomplete tabulation suggests that the winners will include steel makers, Korean automakers, and used car owners. Among the losers: U.S. auto retailers, platinum and palladium producers, parts suppliers, and the Japanese auto industry itself.

    In the six months following the Kobe earthquake of January 1995, shares of Toyota, Honda (HMC), and Nissan (NSANY) fell 22%, 35%, and 40% respectively, according to Tong Yang Securities, and needed up to 13 months to recover.

    Both Honda and Mazda (MZDAF) announced that they were suspending production for the rest of the week. For Honda, it means the loss of 16,600 vehicles. Overall, HIS figures a global production loss of some 36,700 vehicles a day. That means more demand for used Japanese vehicles and hence higher prices.

    Materials prices could move in opposite directions. Lower production also means less demand for palladium and platinum, used in the production of catalytic converters. By contrast, Malaysia's Affin Investment Bank says post-quake reconstruction will push steel prices higher as demand increases. Supplies of sheet, plate, and coil steel were hit by the earthquake.

    In the U.S., Bank of America Merrill Lynch figures that big, publicly-traded car dealers have the most exposure to the Japanese catastrophe, because production halts mean fewer exports of Japanese brands, and thus fewer sales. AutoNation (AN, Fortune 500), Penske Automotive Group (PAG, Fortune 500), and Group One all get more than a third of their sales from Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. Overall, however, Bank of America figures the impact will be small -- equivalent to one day of supply disruption over a full year.

    The disruption of production in Japan creates opportunities for ancient rivals on the Asia mainland. "Korean automakers, which compete with Japanese rivals in the global market, are likely to benefit from the disruption to production and exports to Japanese auto makers," says Hyundai Securities."Benefits are expected also for [Korean] parts makers as well since Japanese and global automakers are likely to increase outsourcing to them."

    Of course, no one wants to profit from someone else's misfortune. As it stands now, the disaster will create short-term shortages, anomalies, and discontinuities. But Japanese automakers have been tested by catastrophe before and successfully recovered.

    According to the latest ranking by Consumer Reports, the nation's most influential car advisor, Honda, Subaru, and Toyota stand as the three most proficient automakers selling cars in the U.S. (as measured by predicted reliability and road test results) while Mazda and Nissan outscore the likes of Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

    Even an earthquake followed by a tsunami is unlikely to materially change that ranking.