汽油涨价，代价达1,000亿美元

    高盛(Goldman Sachs)如是说。上周五，这家公司于本月第二次调低了美国一季度经济增长预测值，并警告称汽油价格——最新均价高至3.83美元/加仑——可能抑制消费者支出，放缓早已滞重的经济。

    “令人担心的一个重要原因是2011年以来汽油价格的大幅上涨——已上涨近0.70美元/加仑——这相当于一年吞噬（美国）居民收入1,000亿美元”，经济学家安德鲁•提尔顿写道。

    这意味着本以为由于工资税免税期，今年将有1100亿美元进账的美国人，现在可能要将这笔收入预期调低至100亿美元——相当于每位男性、女性和孩子人均约33美元。以这样的预算，要提振消费者支出并非易事。

    不过，高盛依然预期得益于招聘提速和薪资温和上涨，2011年余下时间美国经济将有不错的增长。

    但高盛也承认，增长预测面临的风险在上升。该公司已将美国一季度国内生产总值(GDP)的增长预期调低至了1.75%，低于两周前的2.5%和上个月的3.5%。

    “消费增长重新提速是有可能的，但需要诸多因素的配合——劳动力市场继续温和回暖，汽油价格压力缓解，资产价格环境温和，从而鼓励消费者逐步减少储蓄，” 提尔顿写道。

    目前，各项因素综合状况并非高盛期待的那样。上周该公司三次谈到，未来几个月预计大宗商品价格将下跌，这可能缓解汽油价格压力。今年以来，汽油批发价格已上涨31% (见右图)。

    与此同时，高盛敦促客户等待大宗商品价格回调，最好回调后以较低价格重新买入大宗商品期货——这是基于供应紧张和需求稳步增长(特别是发展中国家和地区)将使大宗商品价格长期来看保持上涨的假设。

    因此，如果汽油价格回落、劳动力市场复苏加码，美国经济可能真的会克服忧虑而走好。但别以为4美元/加仑的汽油价格及其并发症已是明日黄花。未来几年我们还将继续为此烦恼。

    So says Goldman Sachs. The firm cut its first-quarter U.S. growth projection Friday for the second time this month, warning that the price of gasoline – up to $3.83 a gallon on average at the latest reading – could undermine consumer spending and slow an already laboring economy.

    "A key reason for concern is the sharp rise in gasoline prices so far in 2011 — nearly 70 cents per gallon — which is siphoning off household income at a run rate equivalent to $100 billion per year," writes economist Andrew Tilton.

    That means Americans who thought they would pocket $110 billion this year in aggregate thanks to the payroll tax holiday are now down to $10 billion – which amounts to about $33 for each man, woman and child. It is not easy to feed a consumer spending rebound on that sort of budget.

    That said, Goldman continues to expect the U.S.economy to expand smartly for the rest of 2011, thanks to accelerating hiring and modest wage growth.

    But it acknoweldges that risks to that forecast are growing, and slashed its first-quarter gross domestic product growth expectation to 1.75%. That's down from 2.5% two weeks ago and 3.5% as recently as last month.

    "A reacceleration in spending growth is possible, but will require a fortuitous combination of circumstances—a modest further pickup in the labor market, gasoline price relief, and a benign asset price environment that encourages consumers to gradually reduce saving," writes Tilton.

    For now, that combination is exactly what Goldman is betting on. The firm said not once, not twice but three times last week that it expects commodity prices to come down in coming months, which could ease the pressure on gas prices. They are up 31% at wholesale this year (see chart, right).

    At the same time, Goldman has been urging clients to wait for the commodity correction, all the better to buy back into commodity futures at lower prices, on the assumption tight supply and steadily rising demand (especially in the developing world) will keep prices marching higher in the long run.

    So the U.S. economy may indeed climb the wall of worry in 2011 if gas prices fall back and the labor market recovery gains steam. But don't think for a second that $4 gasoline, and its complications, is just a passing fancy. We will be fretting over that problem for years to come.