押注“两房”——终获回报

    麻烦缠身的抵押贷款公司房地美(Freddie Mac)和房利美(Fannie Mae)虽然遭遇了巨大亏损，但现在两家公司的优先股已现上涨，即便是在美国房地产市场又迎来一年低迷行情之时。总部位于坦帕的对冲基金Gator Capital Management在4月份的致投资者信中宣布，其所持的“两房”优先股带来强劲回报率。今年头五周，各类优先股股价上涨两倍。

    Gator Capital的创始人德瑞克•派勒克表示，[“两房”优先股]股价的上涨贡献了一季度该基金19.6%涨幅的约一半。“两房”优先股占该基金投资组合的10%左右。

    派勒克有点逆市场而为，即便是在美国财政部( Treasury)宣布未来几年将缩减“两房”规模后，2月份时他告诉《财富》(Fortune)这两家麻烦缠身的抵押贷款公司的股价将上涨。2008年美国房地产市场崩盘时， “两房”因不良贷款承受巨大损失，被联邦政府所救。在这前后，派勒克增持了“两房”股票，买入价低至0.30美元/股。投资过程并不顺利——2010年，两家抵押贷款巨头都跻身当年表现最差的《财富》美国500强股票前五名。

    Gator Capital指出，即便是在“两房”经历亏损之时，它们的财务状况也在改善。根据更严格的放贷标准审核的2009年和2010年的贷款风险相对较低，盈利能力更好。该对冲基金预计房地美今年可能转亏为盈，即便是在支付超过60亿美元优先股后。这将是一个重大的事件转折点——2009年房利美和房地美的亏损额超过了《财富》美国500强中的其他任何公司。

    这只是美好的愿望吗？虽然“两房”的亏损额已较金融危机鼎盛时期收窄，但两家公司仍欠美国政府约1,530亿美元的所谓史上最大规模的援助资金。更重要的是，取决于美国财政部缩减“两房”规模的计划，优先股股东可能完全出局。

    但任何大幅调整可能都会来得比较晚，因为随着2012年美国总统大选临近，美国国会可能暂停任何重要表决。当然会有变化，但如今缩减“两房”规模无疑是国会考虑最多的问题。

    撇开派勒克的回报，投资“两房”并不适合规避风险者或谨小慎微者。即便近月来两家公司的股价表现不错，但低迷的美国房地产市场仍是一个不可回避的问题。

    Troubled lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae might have suffered huge losses, but holders of the mortgage companies' preferred shares are seeing prices rise even as America's housing market slogs through another year in shambles. In a letter to investors in April, Tampa-based hedge fund Gator Capital Management reported strong returns from its holdings in Freddie and Fannie. Prices for the various classes of preferred stock tripled in value during the first five weeks of the year.

    Gator Capital founder Derek Pilecki says that jump represented about half of the fund's 19.6% gain for the first quarter. About 10% of the fund's portfolio reflects Freddie and Fannie preferred stock.

    Pilecki was somewhat of a contrarian when he told Fortune in February that prices of the troubled lenders would rise even after the U.S. Treasury announced plans to unwind Fannie and Freddie over the next several years. In 2008, as America's housing market crashed, the companies suffered staggering losses from bad loans and were rescued by the federal government. That's around the time Pilecki beefed up his fund's holdings of Freddie and Fannie shares, snapping up the securities for as low as 30 cents per share. It hasn't been an easy ride -- in 2010, both mortgage giants were among the top five worst-performing Fortune 500 stocks of the year.

    Even while the companies suffered losses, their financial picture is improving, according to Gator Capital. Newer loans approved under tighter lending standards in 2009 and 2010 are relatively less risky and more profitable. The hedge fund predicts that Freddie Mac may turn profitable this year even after paying more than $6 billion in preferred stock. This would be a significant turn of events -- Fannie and Freddie lost more money than any other Fortune 500 company in 2009.

    Is this wishful thinking? Though Freddie (FMCC) and Fannie's (FNMA) losses have narrowed since the height of the financial crisis, the companies together still owe the government about $153 billion in what has been called the costliest bailout ever. More importantly, depending on how the Treasury Department plans to shrink these companies, preferred shareholders could be wiped out entirely.

    Indeed, any dramatic changes might come much later, as lawmakers might hold off on any decisions as the Presidential race in 2012 approaches. And it's certainly plausible that things could change, but scaling down Freddie and Fannie is very much the thumping tone on Capitol Hill today.

    Pilecki's returns aside, investing in Fannie and Freddie is not for the risk averse or the faint of heart. Even if their shares have seen brighter days lately, it still has the sorry state of the U.S. housing market to answer to.