中国百万富翁数持续增长 不受经济减速影响

    中国计划在2015年底前平均每天发起一宗首次公开募股（IPO），这一过程正在创造惊人的财富，全球顶级银行都竭力想抓住这个商机。波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)的一份最新报告显示，即便中国经济的高速增长目前呈现出一定的放缓迹象，但在可预见的未来，中国家庭财富仍将以每年14%的速度增长。

    美国和欧洲银行正在跑步进入该市场——至少以中国监管部门许可的速度。过去几个月，这些银行排队要与中国证券公司建立提供投资银行产品的合资公司，并已在香港增设了大量私人理财经理，提供投资和理财建议服务。它们还在计划提供大量人民币计价债券、衍生工具等产品——都是去年首度出现的。去年，香港银行账户中的人民币存款增长了三倍。

    中国官方公布的五年规划支持国有企业私有化，鼓励2015年底前每年完成300宗IPO，这意味着数十亿美元的资金急需理财服务，同时也意味着大量的投资机会。“会有越来越多的中国企业上市，同时出现大量财富神话，”波士顿咨询公司亚太金融机构专项负责人兼本报告作者之一邓俊豪表示，“正因为如此，很多私人银行都在觊觎这个不断增长的市场。”

    然而这并非易事。目前人民币还无法实现完全自由兑换，中国监管部门对外资银行仍然实行市场准入制度，限制外资银行设立新的分支机构并为中国客户提供全套服务。虽然中国早在2001年加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)时就已列明了逐步开放银行业的条款，但外资银行发现过去十年监管部门的审批过程仍然缓慢而繁琐。中资银行业正在日益成熟壮大，而外资银行却被远远抛在了后面。

    尽管过程可能沉闷乏味，但面对如此巨大的商机，外资银行业所无法视而不见。上周四，花旗集团(Citigroup)宣布将与总部位于上海的东方证券建立一家合资企业，首次获得在中国市场承销股票和债券的资格；东方证券将持有合资企业67%的股份。然而，花旗进入这个市场的时间已经落后于同行。高盛(Goldman Sachs)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、瑞银(UBS)、苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)等其他7家银行早已推出了中国证券合资公司。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)也于今年1月获得了中国投资银行业务资格。

    在零售层面，花旗银行(Citibank)一直的扩张速度已经达到了中国监管部门所允许的上限。该行目前在中国13个省市设有36家分支机构，并公开宣布希望今年年底前网点能增至50家，三年内增至100家。

    另外，汇丰(HSBC)也非常看好亚洲的银行业商机。去年该行将首席执行官迈克尔•盖根及高管人员的常驻地从伦敦总部迁到了香港，并将亚洲称为“最具战略性重要意义的地区”。

    目前，亚洲私人银行只拥有亚洲财富总额38.5万亿美元中的1.5万亿美元——占比不到4%。“私人银行的渗透率仍然很低，因此商机巨大。”邓俊豪表示，“许多在岸市场[如中国和印度]仍然存在高度管制，随着监管环境开始变得开放，私人银行业有望扩大在这些国内市场上的销售。”

    目前而言，显然亚洲家庭的财富积累速度快于全球其他地区——尽管美国仍稳居榜首。下面的数据源于波士顿咨询公司的最新报告：

    -- 中国及周边国家(日本除外)去年的财富增速为17%，而美国家庭的财富增速刚刚超过10%。

    -- 但美国的增速仍高于中东和拉美平均8%的增速；欧洲家庭的财富增速更是相形失色，仅为4.8%。

    -- 美国的百万美元资产家庭数量仍居全球首位(520万户) – 是中国(110万户)的6倍。

    --此外，美国家庭财富超过1亿美元的超级富豪家庭数量仍是全球最多的(合计达2,692户)。

    -- 但中国的超级富豪家庭增速最快——高达30% (总数为393户)。

    -- 未来增长将主要来自新兴市场——预计2015年底前中国每年增长14%，印度每年18%。

    不太走运的一个地方是日本。即便没有巨灾，其财富也在缩水——去年下降了0.2%。虽然2008年日本拥有亚洲50%以上的财富，但随着中国和印度的家庭财富持续增长，预计到2015年这一数字将降至33%。中国和印度的发展使全球增长引擎得以维持，全球顶级银行必然闻风而至，加紧对这一地区的争夺。

    China's plan to launch nearly an IPO a day through 2015 is creating a phenomenal amount of wealth, and the world's top banks are scrambling to capture it. And even though the rocketing economic growth in China shows some signs of slowing, Chinese household wealth will still grow 14% a year for the foreseeable future, according to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group.

    U.S. and European banks are racing into the region -- or at least as fast as Chinese regulators will let them. In the past few months, banks teamed up in joint ventures with Chinese securities operations to offer investment banking and they've added a slew of private wealth-managers in Hong Kong to offer investment and financial planning advice. They're also working to produce a spate of Chinese yuan-denominated products such as bonds and derivatives -- all offered for the first time last year. Deposits in the Chinese currency in Hong Kong bank accounts also quadrupled last year.

    China's official Five-Year Plan to support the privatization of state-owned enterprises and encourage 300 public share offerings a year through 2015 will translate into billions of dollars just waiting for wealth managers and investment opportunities. "You will see many more Chinese companies come to market, and many wealth creation events," says Tjun Tang, the head of the Boston Consulting Group's Asia-Pacific financial institutions practice and one of the authors of the report. "That's why many private banks are gearing up to serve this growing market."

    It's not always easy. China doesn't allow its currency, the yuan, to be fully convertible, and it has restricted market access to foreign banks that want to open new branches and offer their full range of services to Chinese customers. While terms for China's gradual opening up of the banking sector were laid out when the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign banks have found the past decade of regulatory approval to be a slow, step-by-step process that has kept them far behind the curve as domestic Chinese banks mature and continue to grow.

    Tedious as it may be, the opportunity is too huge for the banks to ignore. On Thursday, Citigroup (C) announced that it would form a joint venture with Shanghai-based Orient Securities Co., allowing it to underwrite stocks and bonds in the China market for the first time. Orient Securities would own 67% of the venture. But Citi is a relative latecomer to this game. Seven other banks including Goldman Sachs (GS), Deutsche Bank (DB), UBS (UBS), and Royal Bank of Scotland have already launched Chinese securities ventures. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) received Chinese regulatory approval for investment banking in January.

    On the retail level, Citibank is expanding as fast as Chinese regulators will let it. It has just 36 branches in 13 cities in China, although it has said publicly that it wants to have 50 by the end of the year and 100 within three years.

    And HSBC considers Asia's banking potential so critical that last year it relocated its CEO Michael Geoghegan and his top executives from London headquarters to Hong Kong, calling Asia its "strategically most important region."

    For now, private banks in Asia have just $1.5 trillion of the $38.5 trillion of the total wealth in Asia—or less than 4%. "The penetration of private banking is low, so the opportunity is still very big," says Tang. "A lot of onshore markets [like China and India] are still highly regulated, so as the regulatory environment begins to open, private banks will be allowed to sell more in those domestic markets."

    For a while now, it's been clear that Asia is getting richer faster than the rest of the world—though the U.S. still remains on top. According to the data from the BCG report:

    -- Wealth in China and its surrounding countries (except Japan) grew at a rate of 17% last year; household wealth of Americans grew at just over 10%.

    -- Yet U.S. growth is still higher than the 8% average in the Middle East and Latin America; Europe's wealth growth was an anemic 4.8%.

    -- The United States still has the most millionaires of anywhere in the world (5.2 million households) – five times more than China has (with 1.1 million).

    -- And the U.S. still has the highest number of "super-wealthy" households having over $100 million (a total of 2,692).

    -- But China experienced the highest growth of "super-wealthy" households – the number is up 30% (to a total of 393).

    -- Emerging markets will experience most of the growth going forward – 14% in China, and 18% per year in India, through 2015.

    One of the unfortunate stories, however, is Japan. Even without its huge natural disaster, its wealth has been declining -- it was down by 0.2% last year. While the Japanese had more than 50% of Asia's wealth in 2008, that number is expected to decline to 33% by 2015 as China and India continue to grow wealthier, keeping global growth engines surging ahead, and the world's top banks scrambling to keep up.