楼市低迷或将引发第三轮量化宽松政策
死气沉沉的房地产经济一瞥
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美国房价二次探底不由令人担心出现新一轮的经济衰退。然而，如果用下面的指标来衡量的话，个人消费和房地产事实上从未出现过反弹。 芝加哥联储银行（Chicago Fed）跟踪新房开工、施工许可、零售额和个人支出的个人消费和房地产指数自2006年12月以来从未高于零。连续52个月保持负值，在该指数34年的历史中是前所未有的。 该月度指数为零，就说明上述领域的活动增长与历史趋势一致。指数为正值，说明增长快于历史趋势。指数为负值，说明增长慢于历史趋势，或干脆就是萎缩。 由于该指数不跟踪房价，回顾过去5年(见上图)的走势可以看到，深度下跌自2007年已经开始，至今仍看不到任何反弹的迹象。今年的数值虽然高于2009年初的低点，但高出不多。 而且，由于房价下跌无力刺激消费者支出及房屋建设，该指数看来很可能会在很长一段时间内保持低位。 房地产和消费者支出的表现一度系于股市。但宏观投资分析机构Bianco Research 的霍华德•西蒙斯指出，自从2009年美联储开始买入美国国债以缓解金融压力后，这种关联就不存在了。 他将股市继2008-2009年大跌后的上涨归因于人们所说的量化宽松政策极为有限的成果，即在经济并无相应改善的情况下，推动了资产价格上涨。但显而易见，这种状况不可能一直持续，近来投资者对此显然也思虑重重。 一旦美联储终止购买美国国债，房地产活动、个人消费和股价之间的关联得以重建，就必须引起警觉：美联储在几个月的犹豫不决后，可能会推出第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）。 |
The double dip in U.S. house prices is raising fears of another recession. But by one measure housing and consumer spending never bounced back in the first place. The Chicago Fed's personal consumption and housing index, which tracks housing starts, building permits, retail sales and personal spending, hasn't been above zero since December 2006. That's a 52-month stretch that's unparalleled in the 34-year history of the index. The monthly index registers zero whenever activity in those categories grows in line with historical trend. A positive reading shows faster expansion and a negative reading either slower growth or outright contraction. Because the index doesn't track house prices, a look back at the past five years (see chart, right) shows a steep decline starting in 2007 but no rebound of any note. This year's readings are above the trough reached in early 2009, but not by much. And since falling housing prices won't do much to stimulate either consumer spending or homebuilding, it looks like a good bet that this index is going to stay at low levels for a good long time. Once upon a time housing and consumer spending were tied to the performance of the stock market. But that relationship hasn't held since the Fed started in 2009 to buy bonds to ease financial conditions, notes Howard Simons of Bianco Research. He attributes the stock market's rise since the 2008-2009 collapse to what you might call the very limited success of quantitative easing – fostering a rise in asset prices without an accompanying improvement in the economy. But it stands to reason that can't last forever, a thought that investors obviously have been chewing on a bit lately. If the end of Fed bond purchases restores the link between housing activity, personal consumption and stock prices, watch out below -- and then watch out, after a few months of handwringing, for QE3. |
