制造业回流，美国货归来

    直到二战结束，美国经济几乎仍然完全自给自足。任何消费品都是本国生产。随着美国致力于加快被战争重创的欧洲和亚洲经济的复苏，美国制造业开始向海外迁移。贸易壁垒显著减少，很快美国公司向海外派出了代表，希望通过扩张海外产能降低企业成本。

    制造业的黄金时代已经一去不复返了。20世纪80年代，制造业占美国劳动总就业人口的25%；随着技术进步极大地降低了运输和通信成本，导致海外营运成本相对较低，近年来该比例已降至12%左右。

    经济大萧条余辉犹在，美国却出现了令人意外的变化：美国制造业看来即将复苏——即便不是完全的重生。有些公司，如总部位于伊利诺伊州、全球最大的挖掘机和推土机生产商卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)正在将一些海外的挖掘机产能挪回德克萨斯州。美国家具生产商Sauder也在将产能从一些低工资国家迁回美国。咨询公司埃森哲(Accenture)的报告显示，受访的制造业经理人有约61%表示，正在考虑将制造产能迁回美国，以便更好地匹配供应地和需求地。

    这样做更多是由于海外生产存在的问题，而不是考虑到本国生产的优势：

    • 海外用工成本上升。以世界工厂著称的中国，国内工资涨幅已超过生产率增长。波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)最近发布的一份报告显示，2000年中国制造业时薪仅52美分，而美国为16.61美元。到2015年时这两个数值将分别达到4.41美元和26.06美元——中国仍以大优势胜出，但在中国招工已不再是一个不假思索的决定。况且，中国的工资增速应会继续加快，而波士顿咨询公司预计美国的增速要慢得多。随着海外用工的成本优势减弱，波士顿咨询公司预计一些制造业产能将回迁。

    • 运输成本持续上涨。除了工资上涨，至偏远地区以及从工厂到商店的运输成本也保持上升态势。经济和金融分析机构IHS Global Insight的数据显示，过去4年，由于油价上涨以及船只和集装箱运力削减，运输成本已经上涨了71%。

    • 全球供应链的软肋。近期最能反映这一突出问题的是今年3月份的日本大地震和海啸。除了人道主义灾难，这场巨灾打乱了全球供应链，很多公司都陷入关键零部件供应断货的尴尬境地。包括波音(Boeing)、卡特彼勒和通用汽车(General Motors)等在内的公司都担心这场巨灾会切断来自日本的零部件供应，因而采取了停工减产措施。

    Until the end of World War II, America's economy was almost completely self-sufficient. Everything it consumed it also produced. The big shift away from manufacturing came as the U.S. sought to speed the recoveries of war-ravaged Europe and Asia. Trade barriers fell significantly and soon American companies were sending emissaries abroad, looking to do business cheaper by expanding their operations overseas.

    The golden era of manufacturing would never come back. By the 1980s, manufacturing made up 25% of U.S. labor; it has fallen to about half of that in recent years as technological advances that greatly reduced the costs of transportation and communication also made it cheaper to have operations outside the U.S.

    But in the after glow of the Great Recession, something surprising is happening: U.S. manufacturing appears to be on the cusp of an awakening – if not a full rebirth. Companies like Illinois-based Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest maker of excavators and bulldozers, is shifting some of its excavator production from abroad to Texas. U.S. furniture maker Sauder is moving production back home from low-wage countries. According to the report by Accenture, some 61% of manufacturing executives surveyed by the consultancy said they were considering more closely matching supply location with demand location by re-shoring manufacturing and supply.

    The reasons why have more to do with problems overseas than strength at home:

    • Overseas workers are getting more expensive. China, known as the world's factory, is seeing wages soar ahead of productivity growth. In 2000, hourly Chinese manufacturing wages were just 52 cents compared to $16.61 in the U.S., according to a recent report by Boston Consulting Group. By 2015, the wage difference should be $4.41 vs. $26.06 – still powerfully in China's favor, but no longer a no-brain decision to hire there. And the growth rate should continue to build in China while BCG expects the US to grow at a much slower rate. As the cost savings of off-shoring narrows, BCG says it expects the return of some U.S. manufacturing.

    • Shipping costs keep increasing. On top of wage increases, the costs of jetting to far flung locations and more importantly, moving goods from the factory to the store keeps heading upward. In the last four years, shipping costs have risen 71% because of higher oil prices, as well as cutbacks in ships and containers, according to IHS Global Insight.

    • Global supply chains have shown weak links. Perhaps little highlights the issue more recently than the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Aside from the human tragedy, the disaster disrupted global supply chains, leaving many companies stranded without critical components. Boeing (BA), Caterpillar, and General Motors (GM), were among those concerned that the disaster would disrupt delivery of components and parts from Japan and therefore stall production.

    当然，所谓的“制造业复兴”不会一蹴而就。纺织服装等劳动密集型产品可能会继续在海外生产。即便中国的劳动力成本上升，总会有另一个国家的劳动力成本相对低廉。

    届时，可以考虑正在兴起的新兴经济体。

    “如果当初企业将制造业务迁至中国是考虑到劳动力成本优势，如今他们可能要重新考虑是否继续留在当地营运，”咨询公司Deloitte LLP的消费和工业品副主席克雷格•吉斐表示，“但如果当初他们前往中国是考虑到巨大的市场，客户在那里，那么他们可能会继续留守。”

    而且，制造业务回迁能创造的就业机会也有限。随着技术进步日益用机器取代工人，数千名工人们在仓库中挥汗如雨已是很久以前的事情了。虽然制造业占美国就业总人口的比重已从20世纪80年代的25%降至今日的约12%，制造业的产品和服务产值仍占美国经济的12%。换言之，制造业已能以更少的人力创造更高的产值。

    To be sure, a so-called "manufacturing renaissance" will likely come in trickles as opposed to waves. Products that are labor intensive such as apparel and textiles will likely continue being made overseas. Even if labor costs rise in China, there's almost always another country that would do the job relatively cheaper.

    And then there's the booming emerging economies to consider.

    "If companies moved operations to China for labor arbitrage, they're likely rethinking their presence there," says Craig Giffi, vice chairman of consumer and industrial products at Deloitte LLP, a consultancy. "But if they went there because of it's massively growing market and their customers are there then they're likely going to stay."

    What's more, there are sizeable limits over how many more jobs re-shoring would create. The days of thousands of factory workers toiling away in warehouses are long gone, as technological advances have increasingly replaced humans with machines. While manufacturing as a percentage of the labor force has plummeted from 25% in 1980 to about roughly 12% today, the value of goods and services produced has remained 12% of the U.S. economy. In other words, manufacturing has been able to produce more even with many less workers.