中国能拯救欧洲吗？
|
希腊最近通过的紧缩方案可能无法解决夏季过后该国如何偿还债务的深层次问题，但全球最大的投资者之一仍对该国和泛欧元区充满信心。毕竟，不这么做的话，风险更大。 上周初，就在希腊议会讨论可能的违约情况并批准紧缩方案的前几天，中国宣布将继续投资欧洲主权债券。温家宝总理向记者透露，中国事实上增持了某些欧洲国家的政府债券，而且没有减持欧元。 这些举措“显示了我们对于欧洲经济体和欧元区的信心，”他说。 中国的支持并不完全出人意料。今年年初，这个亚洲大国与债务缠身的西班牙签署了73亿欧元的合同，涵盖了从能源到银行到石油各个领域的投资。去年大约也是在这个时候，中国曾经承诺与希腊签署十多个重要的合约以发展商业。 欧洲的债务问题使众多投资者惴惴不安，同样也可能使这些采购合同的价值变化不定，但是以中国的胃口，其重点并不在此。投资于欧洲的未来对于中国来说利大于弊。虽然欧元区存在悲观情绪和不确定性，但是欧元区仍是中国最大的出口市场（约占其总出口量的20%），抑制欧洲的危机符合中国的利益。 “他们并不太担心短期的波动，”布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）国家货币关系和全球货币的高级研究员多米尼克•隆巴迪说。 另外，如美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校（the University of California in San Diego）的中国专家巴瑞•诺顿今年年初指出的那样：如果事态恶化，欧盟（the European Union）和欧洲央行（the European Central Bank）很可能会出手拯救，因此风险相对较低。 上周三通过的410亿美元预算削减和资产购买计划只是去年大规模救助计划的一部分，旨在帮助债务缠身的希腊偿还其贷款。欧盟和国际货币基金组织（the International Monetary Fund）要求希腊议会在下一轮救助计划公布之前通过该方案。 中国的外汇储备高达3万多亿美元，在全球遥遥领先，被政治家和公司高管视为重要的资本来源。由于中国对其持有的欧洲债券明细保密，因此尚不清楚中国增持了多少欧债，但是通过宣布愿意投资于欧洲，中国间接地帮助稳定了市场和欧元，并向世界传达这样一个讯息，即中国是一个良好的全球伙伴，愿意在出现危机时提供帮助。 长期而言，中国一直在寻求多元化其外汇储备，减持波动剧烈的美元。一直关注欧洲危机的隆巴迪指出，尽管欧元在金融危机期间跌宕起伏，但它仍是美元最实际的替代品。 这肯定不会是最后一次我们听到中国支持欧元区。如果未来数月，欧洲的其他国家出现财务问题，中国很可能会再次发声。 |
Greece's recently approved austerity plan might not resolve deeper questions over how the country will repay its debts beyond this summer, but it appears one of the world's biggest investors still has faith in the country and the greater eurozone. After all, it would be too risky not to. Earlier this week, just days before the Greek Parliament approved austerity measures amid talks of a possible default, China said it would keep investing in Europe's sovereign debt. Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters that the country actually increased the purchase of government bonds of some European countries and hadn't scaled back its euro holdings. These acts "show our confidence in the economies of Europe and the eurozone," he said. China's backing isn't all that surprising. It was only earlier this year when the Asian giant supported debt-ridden Spain by signing $7.3 billion in deals that included investments in everything from energy to banking to oil. And it was around this time last year that China pledged to make more than a dozen major commercial contracts for business in Greece. The value of these purchases may very well be in flux amid debt problems that have put many investors on alert, but that's beside the point of China's voracious appetite. China has more to gain than lose by investing in Europe's future. Even as misery and uncertainty mounts in the region, the eurozone is still China's largest export market (accounting for roughly 20% of total shipments) and it's in its own interest to contain the crisis. "They're not really concerned about short-term volatility," says Domenico Lombardi, senior fellow specializing in international monetary relations and global currencies at Brookings Institution. Besides, as China expert Barry Naughton of the University of California in San Diego, pointed out earlier this year: The risks are relatively low since the European Union and the European Central Bank will likely swoop into the rescue if things get really bad. Wednesday's $41 billion worth of budget cuts and asset purchases was part of a large-scale bailout launched last year to help debt-troubled Greece pay its loans. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund had required Greek lawmakers to pass the plan before releasing its next round of rescue payments. China's foreign-exchange reserve, worth more than $3 trillion, is by far the biggest in the world and is viewed by politicians and corporate executives as a key source of capital. It's unclear just how much China has boosted its holdings of European bonds, as leaders keep the breakdown of its holdings secret. But just by saying it will invest in Europe, China indirectly calms markets and helps stabilize the euro, and in a way, sends a message to the world at large that it's a good global neighbor willing to help in times of crisis. Longer-term, the Chinese have been looking to diversify its massive reserves away from the volatile U.S. dollar. To be sure, the euro has also seen its share of peaks and valleys throughout the crisis but the currency is still the most practical alternative to the greenback, says Lombardi, whose research has focused on the ongoing European crisis. This surely isn't the last time we'll hear the Chinese back the eurozone. If and likely when financial instability rumbles in other parts of Europe in the coming months, we'll probably hear from the Chinese again. |
