波音空客决战长空

    虽然空客（Airbus）无疑是上月巴黎航展的赢家，但波音（Boeing）仍不可小觑。维勒班特（Le Bourget）展会上空客A320neo机型拿下了创纪录的订单，说明这家欧洲飞机制造商已然成功俘获现有航空公司客户的芳心。尽管空客在展会上出尽风头，但依然无法染指波音的核心客户群。因此，在单通道机型----这一竞争最为激烈、利润最为丰厚的市场领域，双方胜负仍未见分晓。

    如今，波音的客户似乎在观望波音将如何处理737这一老一代单通道主力机型。但观望的时间是有限的，空客和很多新的国外竞争对手，例如中国，正加紧步伐笼络波音主力客户。波音需果断出击，否则只能眼看着自己最忠实的客户，诸如美国航空（American Airline）和欧洲瑞安航空（Ryanair），将大额订单送入竞争对手的囊中。

    单通道机型很少受到媒体的关注，但它却是飞机制造商最重要的摇钱树。空客的巨无霸A380机型以及波音的划时代787机型的出现具有深远的意义，但事实上这种机型并不太赚钱。波音737机型为公司在商业航空领域创造了40%的营业收入以及超过一半的营业利润。而空客最新巨无霸A380机型在销售利润上仍是颗粒无收。

    飞机制造业赖以生存的根本并非大型越洋机型，而是每天多次往返于纽约与休斯顿之间，或伦敦、马德里之间的小型客机。这些机型所带来的现金流使得飞机制造商有充足的资金来进行研发，并打造出拉风的新机型。这并不是说大型机型对航空公司的业绩不重要，只是它们难以成为这个行业的生力军。

    过去的几年中，人们在巴黎航展上最为关注的是那些火爆的新产品。然而，今年的展会上，主力机型独领风骚。空客已将A320的新型号A320neo提上销售日程。A320neo机型主打“选择新引擎”理念。顾名思义，机型本身没有重大的改动，只是装载了新引擎。空客新机型的卖点就是“集效能改进之大成”，与老机型相比油耗降低15%，因此飞行距离更远，载货能力更强。很明显，空客这次是用老瓶装新酒。

    尽管新机型要在2015年秋天才能正式服役，但空客客户对其已是追捧有加。空客仅在展会上就拿下了667架的大单，市场总价约609亿美元。如今，空客已收到1，029架新机型订单，这也使得该机成为民航史上最为畅销的机型。

    由于超出预期订单数近半，展会上这一票巨额订单让分析师们大跌眼镜。订单排行榜中，亚洲航空公司首当其冲，其中包括总部位于马来西亚的亚航（AirAsia），下单200架。印度尼西亚国家航空公司鹰航（Garuda）也加入了预订大军，并下单15架。

    大多数其他的订单来自于空客的老主顾，像JetBlue航空公司（JBLU），预订了40架新机。分析师和内部人士认为唯有鹰航的15架空客机型订单会让波音大受打击，因为几十年来，鹰航一直是波音的忠实拥趸。

737机型升级成疑

    鹰航这一核心客户的准倒戈似乎并未引发芝加哥波音公司管理层的担忧。同样，他们对于展会上波音737新型号800和900RE所取得的仅71架订单的成绩也并不介怀。波音在很长一段时间内都没有推出过737的重大改款机型，因此订单上的平平反应也就完全在预料当中。大额订单往往伴随着新机型的出现而出现，波音在最近6年都没有推出过737这一主力的新款机型。

    新机型盛装登场的日子遥遥无期。近几年，波音公司似乎将全部精力投在了严重难产的中型机型787的开发中，该机终于在今年夏末正式服役。

    波音深知新737机型的推出迫在眉睫，但是该公司仍未确定到底是重新设计，亦或采用787机型新合成材料来建造，还是干脆给老铝合金机身配一副低油耗新引擎。巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）分析师卡特•科普兰德向《财富》杂志（Fortune）透露，重新设计新机型可能至少需花费150亿美元。他认为737当今的机型已十分成熟，因此花费大量财力重新设计该机型对于波音来说并不一定划算。

    科普兰德说：“事实上，设计新机型会带来大量财务和技术风险。波音对此需要有十足的把握，因为这种项目是‘拿公司作赌注’。”

    这也是波音举棋不定的根本原因。科普兰德认为波音最多还有一年的时间来做这个决定，但届时也很有可能为时已晚。有迹象表明一些波音公司最忠实的拥趸已开始与其竞争对手互通声气。

    波音的核心客户群仍为大型美国航空公司。数十年来，美国航空 (AMR, Fortune 500)一直是波音及麦道（McDonnell Douglas，1996年被波音收购）的忠实拥趸。尽管美国航空公司也曾为其旗下美国之鹰航空（American Eagle）购买过用于区域运输的非波音机型飞机，但美国航空，顾名思义，将首选美国制造的飞机作为其干线运营机型。

    美国航空目前正重新整编机组，并准备淘汰八、九十年代购买的几十架老麦道-80机型。公司仍有300架麦道-80飞机服役。但自2008年以来，公司已开始启用新737s取代老麦道机型，并于2009年和2010年预订了119架新737-800s机型。

    美国航空公司的飞机换代需求仍然很大。但这家总部位于达拉斯的承运商不仅仅只是眷顾波音。有消息人士透露，新的低油耗A320neo机型备受公司管理层青睐。该人士还说，为促成合约，空客当仁不让地亮出了超低折扣价。

    业界曾预计美国航空公司将在巴黎航展上抛出其大额订单，结果却不了了之。有报道称该公司计划购买250架新机，总额达150亿美元，且目前正同时与空客和波音紧密磋商相关订单事宜。拉拢美国航空公司对空客来说是一场翻身硬仗，同时也为A320neo机型赢得一枚认证标志。其他美国承运商，诸如全美航空【US Airways (LCC, Fortune 500)】，美联航（United Airlines）及达美航空【Delta Airlines(DAL, Fortune 500)】均采用空客和波音双机型运营。这些公司的飞机都需要更新换代，新的收入来源，诸如行李托运费，在一定程度上解决了这些公司的订金支付问题。

来自中国的竞争

    或许737s机型最大的威胁不是来自于空客，而是源于中国。2月份，其核心客户瑞安航空，欧洲最大的廉价航空公司，宣布该公司正与中国商用飞机有限公司（Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China）商谈购买200-400架新机。作为市场新丁，中国商用飞机有限公司有可能打破空客和波音双寡头垄断的局面。瑞安航空目前采用的全是波音272、737s机型，且公司在2012年波音交付最后一架737飞机之前没有新机订单。2009年，该公司中断了与空客和波音的谈判，声称对以上两公司飞机的定价不满。

    以节约著称的瑞安航空需要的是能满足其廉价形象的机型。例如，该公司首席执行官迈克•奥雷尔对波音公司颇有微词，原因是波音机型机载卫生间的门锁做的不尽人意，公司无法藉此对使用卫生间的乘客收费。因此，他转投中国购买廉价200座机型的举动也就不足为奇了。瑞安航空至今还没有决定是否与波音诀别，转而牵手中国商用飞机公司，但有迹象表明该公司可能会去试试水。一旦瑞安航空成功在先，其他廉价航空公司在组建机组时都有可能紧随其后投入中国商用飞机公司，而不是波音的怀抱。

    虽然瑞安公司有可能变节，但波音和空客对来自于中国商用飞机公司的威胁仍然不以为意。毕竟，中国还需要很多年甚至几十年的时间才能成为商用航空领域有力的竞争对手。到目前为止，只有中国的航空公司预订了该公司的C919机型飞机，而且第一架飞机将在2016年，也就是5年后才会投入使用。

    尽管5年时间看起来很长，但在航空业却只是标准的中场休息时段。航空公司都是批量下单且旗下飞机也将服役多年。波音目前急需稳住其核心客户，否则眼前客户的流失将影响公司今后十年的业绩。中国人仍然需要证明自己，但欧洲人已然表明，A320已经成为737最强有力的竞争对手。现在轮到波音当机立断，拿出方案，应对neo机型的挑战，否则其主力客户将难免见异思迁，另结新欢。

    The Paris Airshow last month was a clear win for Airbus, but don't count Boeing out just yet. The record number of orders for the Airbus A320neo aircraft at Le Bourget shows the European aircraft maker's success in bringing its current airline customers back on board. But while it was an impressive showing, Airbus failed to make any meaningful inroads into Boeing's core customer base, leaving in place a deadlock between the two aircraft makers in the heavily competitive and extremely profitable single-aisle jet market.

    For now, it looks like Boeing's customers are waiting it out to see what the aircraft maker will do with its aging single-aisle workhorse, the Boeing 737. But Boeing shouldn't make them wait too long. Airbus, along with a new crop of foreign competitors, namely the Chinese, is aggressively pitching Boeing's anchor customers. Boeing may need to act fast or it could find that even its most loyal airline clients, like American Airlines and Europe's Ryanair, sign big multi-billion dollar contracts with a competitor.

    The single-aisle jet market hardly grabs the headlines, but it is the most important profit center for jet makers. So while Airbus' superjumbo A380 and Boeing's futuristic 787 are important, the truth is, they aren't the big money makers. Boeing's 737 aircraft accounts for around 40% of the jet maker's commercial aviation revenue and well over half of its profits. Meanwhile Airbus still hasn't made a profit from selling its new superjumbo A380.

    What keeps these aircraft industry going are the small jets that whisk people several times a day from New York to Houston or from London to Madrid -- not the big transatlantic jets. The cash flow generated by those projects allow the jet makers to splurge on research and development and roll out sexy new products. That's not to say that bigger jets aren't important to the bottom line, they just aren't the backbone of the industry.

    For the last few years all the attention at the Paris Airshow has focused on the sexy new projects. This year, though, it was all about the workhorse. Airbus offered up for sale its latest version of the A320, the A320neo, which stands for "new engine option." As the name suggests, the jet really isn't a major redesign, it simply has a new engine. Airbus is selling the new plane as an "efficiency improvement package," over older models with improvements including a 15% reduction in fuel consumption allowing it to go farther and hold more cargo. Airbus clearly didn't reinvent the wheel here.

    But Airbus customers went gaga over the new jet, which won't even be ready to enter service until the fall of 2015. There was a whopping 667 orders for the new jet at the show, worth around $60.9 billion at market-list prices. Airbus now has 1,029 orders for the new jet, making it the most popular model in civil aviation history.

    The sheer number of orders at the show shocked analysts, who were expecting around half that. Leading the way were several Asian airlines, like Malaysia-based AirAsia with 200 orders. Garuda, the Indonesia flag carrier, also got in on the action ordering 15 jets.

    Most of the other orders came from long-standing Airbus champions, like JetBlue (JBLU), which ordered 40 of the new jets. Analysts and insiders believe that the only real hit to Boeing was Garuda's 15 plane order, as the flag carrier had been staunchly Boeing for decades.

A 737 tune-up?

    The potential loss of Garuda as a core customer doesn't seem to be worrying Boeing's management in Chicago. Nor does the fact they received just 71 new orders for its latest 737 models, the -800 and -900ER, at the air show. Boeing hasn't introduced a radically different version of its 737 in some time, so it was expected to do poorly in the final tallies. Big aircraft orders usually come when there is a new model, and Boeing hasn't rolled out a new version of its 737 workhorse in six years.

    That's quite a long stretch to go without a gussied up new aircraft. The company seems to have focused all its energy in the last few years in launching its much-delayed mid-sized 787 aircraft, which finally enters service at the end of the summer.

    Boeing understands that it is time to roll out a new 737, but it hasn't decided if it should totally redesign the aircraft, possibly constructing it from the same futuristic composite materials used in the 787, or just slap a new set of fuel-efficient engines to its old aluminum body and calling it a day. It could take an estimated $15 billion or more to redesign the aircraft, Carter Copeland, the aerospace analyst at Barclays Capital, told Fortune. He argues that since the 737 is already so efficient in its current form, it may not be cost-effective for Boeing to make such a big capital expenditure to redesign the aircraft.

    "Frankly, there is a lot of financial and technical risk associated with doing a new airplane and Boeing need to be very comfortable with this because these are 'bet the company' type projects," Copeland says.

    This is at the root of why Boeing has yet to make a decision. Copeland feels that Boeing has up to a year to make the decision, but that may be too late. There are signs that some of Boeing's most loyal customers have started talking to the other side.

    Boeing's core customers are still the big U.S. airlines. American Airlines (AMR, Fortune 500) has been a loyal Boeing and McDonnell Douglas (acquired by Boeing in 1996) customer for decades. While it has bought non-Boeing planes for its American Eagle regional jet fleet, American, as its name suggests, prefers American-made aircrafts for its mainline fleet.

    The company is now moving to totally revamp its fleet as it moves to retire the dozens of old MD-80 jets it acquired in the 80s and early 90s. The airline at one point had 300 MD-80's up in the sky. But since 2008, the airline has moved to replace them with new 737s, ordering around 119 new 737-800s in 2009 and 2010.

    American's fleet is still in need of a major upgrade. But the Dallas-based carrier isn't just looking at Boeing. The new, more fuel-efficient A320neo, has caught the eye of management, according to a person briefed on the matter. Airbus is pushing hard, offering steep discounts to get American to sign on, this person said.

    American was expected to announce a large order at the Paris Airshow, but it never came. The company is reportedly in heated negotiations with both Airbus and Boeing at this time with plans to order 250 planes worth around $15 billion. Grabbing American would be a coup for Airbus and would put a seal of approval on the A320neo. That could influence other U.S. carriers to follow its lead. The other mainline U.S. carriers -- US Airways (LCC, Fortune 500), United Airlines and Delta Airlines (DAL, Fortune 500) -- already operate a mix of Airbus and Boeing jets. All of them are in need of an upgrade and finally have some money to put down a deposit -- thanks, in part, to all those new revenue streams, like baggage fees.

Competition from China

    The biggest threat to the 737s rein may not be from Airbus, but from China. Core customer Ryanair, one of the big European discount airlines, announced in February that it was in discussions with Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, COMAC, to acquire 200 to 400 new aircraft. COMAC is a brand new entrant in the market and has the potential to break the Boeing/Airbus duopoly. Ryan Air currently operates an all Boeing fleet made up of 272 737s and has no outstanding orders for new jets after it receives its last 737 from Boeing in 2012. The airline broke off negotiations with Airbus and Boeing in 2009 because it said it was unhappy with their pricing.

    Ryanair, known to be frugal, needs an aircraft that fits its deep discount image. For example, the airline's colorful chief executive, Michael O'Leary, is upset with Boeing for not making an effective locking system for its onboard bathrooms that would allow the airline to start charging its customers to use the toilet. So it isn't surprising that he would be in negotiations with the Chinese to produce a cheap 200-seat airplane. Ryanair has yet to make a decision on whether or not it will abandon Boeing for COMAC, but it looks like it might just take a chance. Other discount airlines, looking to replicate Ryanair's success, may be persuaded to go with COMAC instead of the Boeing 737 when building up their fleets.

    Notwithstanding Ryanair's possible defection, Boeing and Airbus seem unfazed by the COMAC threat. After all, it will take years, possibly decades, for the Chinese to become a credible threat in the commercial aviation space. So far, only Chinese airlines have ordered COMAC's prototype c919 jet, with the first jet set to go into service in 2016, five years from now.

    While five years may seem like a long time, it's actually pretty standard lag time in the aviation business. Airlines order jets in bulk and take possession of them over several years. That is why it's critical for Boeing to nail down its core customers now, as any loss today would affect its bottom line for the next decade. While the Chinese still have to prove themselves, the Europeans have already shown that the A320 has become a formidable competitor to the 737. It's now up to Boeing to decide how it will respond to the neo threat before any of its key anchor clients decides to get adventurous and try something new.