清洁能源高新技术产业即将崩盘

    布鲁克林研究院（Brookings Institution）的一份报告指出，随着美国联邦政府资助的枯竭，清洁能源高新技术产业将在今年年底面临“资金断裂”之忧，使这个为数不多的能带来就业增长的行业面临危机。

    当一项产业是由不稳定的政府资金资助时，就会遇到这种危机。（与之相对比的是，农业和石油等产业一直能获得稳定的政府资金投入，尽管它们可能并不需要这些资金。）

    目前业界“缺乏对清洁能源经济的标准定义以及数据”，布鲁克林研究院发表了名为《详解清洁能源经济：（美国）国家及地区绿色工作评估报告》（Sizing the Clean Economy: A National and Regional Green Jobs Assessment）的文章，力图解决这一难题。

    举例来说，什么是“绿色工作”？给出一个定义确实很难。报告对“清洁能源经济”和“清洁能源高新技术产业”进行了区分。前者“能比化石能源产业雇佣更多的员工”，但如果你知道“清洁能源经济”的雇员还分布在公共交通和制造业等成熟产业中时，你也许会颇为惊讶。从2003年到2007年，清洁能源经济的增长速度要比美国经济总体增长率低很多，不过以太阳能面板、燃料电池、生物燃料等为代表的清洁能源高新技术产业却经历了“爆炸性增长”，即便是在经济衰退期，它们的表现也要强于美国整体经济。

    不过这种增长能否继续下去尚无定论。这个问题很大程度上取决于政府。随着州级政府财政面临破产之虞，以及联邦资助消失殆尽，清洁能源高新技术产业似乎将不可避免地面临崩盘。不久前，布鲁克林研究院的德文•斯维泽预测崩盘即将来临。他的解释非常简单，“清洁能源仍要比煤和石油昂贵得多，而且可靠性也不如它们。清洁能源之前一直依赖政府补助降低销售价格，不过随着政府大力进行预算紧缩，这种补贴即将难以为继。”

    高昂的价格会严重影响社会对清洁能源相关产品的需求，所以补贴必须是长期而稳定的，直到整个产业具备“造血”能力，能够进行自我发展才可。不够规律的进行资金“输血”，将会使整个产业在繁荣和萧条间起伏波动。现在，我们就即将面临萧条。

    而格外令人沮丧的是，由于联邦政府不能提供稳定而长期的资金支持，许多美国清洁能源高新技术公司正在转而寻求来自中国的投资。可与此同时，美国政客们却还在为白炽灯争论不休。

    译者：项航

    As federal stimulus spending dries up, the clean tech industry faces a "funding cliff" at the end of this year that could jeopardize one of the few economic sectors that is producing job growth, according to a report issued by the Brookings Institution.

    Such is the peril when an industry is supported by fickle government financing (as opposed to the more reliable, if far less needed, government financing enjoyed by industries like agriculture and petroleum).

    The report, "Sizing the Clean Economy: A National and Regional Green Jobs Assessment," is an attempt to address the fact that there is an "absence of standard definitions and data" about the

    For example, what are "green jobs," anyway? It's not so easy to define. The report distinguishes between the "clean economy" and the "clean tech industry." The former "employs more workers than the fossil fuel industry," which might sound surprising until you learn that the "clean economy" includes people working in mature industries like mass transit and manufacturing. The clean economy grew more slowly than the national economy between 2003 and 2007, but the clean-tech sector – which includes makers of solar panels, fuel cells, biofuels and the like – saw "explosive growth" and outdid the economy as a whole during the recession.

    But whether that growth can continue is an open question. It largely depends on government – and with states going broke and federal stimulus funds going away, it seems almost inevitable that there will be a clean-tech crash. Devon Swezey of The Breakthough Institute put it succinctly when he recently made the hard prediction that a crash is coming. "Clean energy is still much more expensive and less reliable than coal or gas," he wrote, "and in an era of heightened budget austerity the subsidies required to make clean energy artificially cheaper are becoming unsustainable."

    When high prices put a heavy lid on demand for socially desirable products, subsidy has to be long-term and reliable – in place until the industry can sustain itself, and finance its growth privately. Semi-regular infusions of cash tend to create booms and busts. Right now, we're headed for a bust.

    A particularly dispiriting outcome of all this is that in the absence of a firm, long-term commitment from the federal government, many U.S. clean tech firms are looking to China for investment. Meanwhile, we're arguing over light bulbs.