并购风云：惠普/谷歌谁能笑到最后

    本周，两宗大型技术并购浮出水面：谷歌（GOOG）宣布将以125亿美元收购摩托罗拉移动（Motorola Mobility, MMI），而惠普（Hewlett-Packard）将以103亿美元收购软件公司Autonomy (AUTNF)。

    一家对收购信心十足，而另一家则不然。

    大家可能会认为：信心十足的是谷歌。谷歌正大举进军消费级硬件市场，但惠普却反其道而行之。从战略角度考虑，这可能是正确的。但是从并购角度来看，结论却截然相反。

    如果收购流产，谷歌同意支付摩托罗拉移动25亿美元的赔偿金，占收购总额的整整20%。该额度仅次于美国电话电报公司AT&T (T) 以390亿美元收购T-Mobile时同意支付的30亿美元赔偿金（后者绝对金额更高，但所占比例更小）。更重要的是，在监管机构的眼中，此举也意味着谷歌正逐步演变成为另一个微软（Microsoft），因此即便是细微的举动也会遭到严格的审查。

    另一方面，惠普上周五早间对外界公布其收购Autonomy的赔偿金只有1.16亿美元，仅占总收购额的1%。换句话来说，阻碍惠普成功并购的因素并不多。相比摩托罗拉移动与谷歌， Autonomy公司与惠普目前的业务显然更加合拍，但没人会担心惠普会形成市场垄断。

    值得一提的是，史蒂夫•大卫杜夫（并购交易专家——译注）曾率先提出一个相反的论点。他认为，谷歌对于收购极度自信，它希望这种一掷千金的做法能让监管机构感受到公司的这种信心。如同扑克牌中的孤注一掷。

    这也不失为一个好观点，但是我认为，就目前的局势来看，这一想法过于夸张。确实，监管机构此前还没有过任何否决谷歌并购的先例——包括最近谷歌对ITA软件公司的收购——但是很明显，谷歌这次可能会为此支付一笔可观的学费。其结果是要么按约定的价格收购，要么支付赔偿金，甚至可能落得个赔了夫人又折兵的下场。

    如果这两宗并购案中有任何一笔以失败告终，我都会非常震惊。但若猜得不错，从分手费额度来看，HP-Autonomy联姻的胜率要比谷歌-摩托罗拉移动联姻的胜率更高。

    We've had two giant tech mergers announced this week: Google (GOOG) agreeing to buy Motorola Mobility (MMI) for $12.5 billion, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) agreeing to buy Autonomy (AUTNF) for around $10.3 billion.

    One of these deals exudes confidence. The other does not.

    I know what you're probably thinking: Google is the confident one. It's making a huge move into the consumer hardware space, while HP is going in the opposite direction. And, from a strategic perspective, that's probably accurate. From an M&A perspective, however, it's the other way around.

    Google has agreed to pay Motorola Mobility a $2.5 billion break-up fee if the deal falters. That's a whopping 20% of the purchase price, and is the largest known breakup fee outside of the $3 billion AT&T (T) would be required to pay T-Mobile were that $39 billion transaction not to close (larger in dollars, but far smaller in terms of percentage). More importantly, it's a reflection that Google has become Microsoft in the eyes of regulators, and even a horizontal move will receive significant scrutiny.

    HP, on the other hand, revealed this morning that its break-up fee with Autonomy is just around $116 million, or 1% of the total transaction price. In other words, there are few concerns that the deal won't be able to close. an HP monopoly is not on anyone's radar, even though Autonomy seems to be more in line with HP's existing business than Motorola Mobility is with Google's.

    It's also worth pointing out a counter-argument, first proposed by Steven Davidoff. He posits that Google is extremely confident, and that it is using the out-sized break-up fee as a way to relay that confidence to regulators. Kind of like going all-in on a poker hand.

    It's a nice turn of the brain, but I think it's a way to over-think the obvious. It's true that Google has not yet had an acquisition stopped by regulators -- including its recent ITA Software purchase -- but clearly it now must pay a premium for the possibility. Either you do that on deal size or on breakup fees. Or both.

    I'd be very surprised if either deal didn't close. But if I were an odds-maker, the breakup fees suggest that Google-Motorola is lower on the board than HP-Autonomy.