存亡关头，零售巨头西尔斯孤注一掷

    斯托维尔在研究过兰伯特管理之下的西尔斯架构后指出，“我认为兰伯特在试图最有效地利用其资产，这是公司经营者应尽的本分。” 斯托维尔还说，兰伯特这位对冲基金权威创造的股东价值超过了大多数人愿意承认的水平。“如果能在营收下滑之际维持现金流，这是一个相当好的结果。我认为如果没有兰伯特，就不会有他创造的大量股东价值。”

    2005年，兰伯特重组凯马特零售超市（Kmart）时的原始投资者们收获颇丰，当然，前提是他们后来没有像兰伯特那样持续买入公司的股票。那一年，兰伯特将凯马特与西尔斯, Roebuck and Co.公司合并，随后创造性地推出了一系列商业计划，并对公司管理层进行了重组。

    为改善财务数据，西尔斯多方尝试，包括关闭经营不善的门店、为网站注入活力，并将分布在众多门店的133,000平方英尺零星店面租给其他零售商，诸如青少年品牌Forever 21、艾德温沃兹高尔夫商店（Edwin Watts Golf Shops）和制服零售商Work 'N Gear以及杂货店和连锁健身俱乐部等等。

    然而，西尔斯去年的营收仍然降至433亿美元，低于2008年的507亿美元。8月份，该公司公布凯马特第二季度同店销售额持平，而西尔斯美国门店下降1.2%。归属于股东的当季净亏损为摊薄后每股1.37美元，高于2010年的0.35美元。2010年营运现金流刚刚为正值，2011年截至7月30日的26周为-4.67亿美元。市场普遍预计西尔斯控股11月中旬将公布每股亏损2.29美元。

    6月份，惠誉（Fitch）将西尔斯控股债务评级从“B+”调低至 “B”，理由是其盈利持续恶化，特别是“2011年第一季度陡然下滑”。惠誉列出的问题是西尔斯和凯马特美国门店的增收增幅继续落后于其他零售商，营业利润率也滞后。这家评级机构称，最令人担忧的是“盈利能力降幅之大以及看不到扭转颓势的前景。”

    宾夕法尼亚大学（University of Pennsylvania）沃顿商学院（Wharton School）的营销学教授斯蒂夫•霍克指出，西尔斯近日的销售许可战略将增加一些低利润率销售额，有助于改善收入状况。同时，“与其他零售商的合作”可能还会对门店认可度有些帮助，但他认为许可协议最终给西尔斯带来的益处相当有限。

    大卫德维茨认为，不要揣测西尔斯最近的举措背后有什么宏大的计划。“西尔斯传达的信息是：，过去我们一塌糊涂，但现在我们已经有了一位新总裁。我们需要筹集资金，赢得时间来探索电子商务市场。为了让人们不再质疑我们是否还有存在的价值，我们只能这么做，”他认为。“一切只是为了生存。”

    "I do think Lampert is trying to utilize his assets in the most efficient way, which is what people who run companies are supposed to do," says Stowell, who has studied Sears structure under Lampert. He adds that the hedge fund guru has done better for shareholders than many will admit. "If you can maintain cash flow in the context of declining revenues, that is a pretty good outcome. I give him credit for generating a lot more shareholder value than would have been created in the absence of the Lampert ownership period."

    Original investors in Lampert's reorganized Kmart have done well enough, at least if they didn't keep buying stock (as Lampert has), through the merger with Sears, Roebuck and Co. in 2005 and the other various inspired initiatives and management shakeups that followed.

    In an attempt to boost its financials, Sears has been attempting to shed unproductive stores, enliven its internet presence and lease out bits of the 133,000 square feet that encompass its average location to other retailers, such as Forever 21, Edwin Watts Golf Shops and Work 'N Gear, as well as grocery and health club chains.

    But revenues were down to $43.3 billion last year, from $50.7 in 2008. In August, the company reported that Kmart's comparable store sales were flat in the second quarter, while Sears stores in the U.S. saw a decline of 1.2%. Net loss for shareholders for the quarter equaled $1.37 per diluted share, compared with a 35-cent per diluted share loss in 2010. Cash flow from operations was barely positive for 2010 and was negative $467 million for the 26 weeks ending July, 30, 2011. The consensus estimate is for Sears Holdings to show a loss of $2.29 per share when it reports in mid-November.

    In June, Fitch downgraded Sears Holdings debt to "B" from "B+," due to the continuing deterioration of earnings, particularly the "precipitous decline during the first quarter of 2011." The problem illuminated by Fitch is that domestic Sears and Kmart stores have continued to underperform other retailers on top line growth and operating margins have also lagged. The rating agency says its greatest concern is "the magnitude of decline in profitability and the lack of visibility to turn around operations."

    Professor Steve Hoch, who teaches marketing at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, notes that Sears' latest licensing move will help bolster its income by pulling in some additional, albeit lower-margin sales. It will also possibly help a little with store recognition due to the "implicit endorsement by the other retailers," but he sees Sears' ultimate benefit from the licensing deals as being rather small.

    There's no sense in trying to divine a grand plan from the move, according to Davidowitz . "Sears is saying we got all this crap, we've got a new president and we need to buy some time to come up with something online, and this will be something we can do so people won't question if we should even be in business," he opines. "It's about survival."