债务危机给初创企业的启示

    “我过去曾经想如果有来生，我希望能当上美国总统、罗马教皇或一名击中率四成的棒球手。但现在我想成为债券市场，因为它可以吓唬住任何人。” ——美国民主党政策顾问詹姆斯•卡维尔

    来自欧洲的消息每况愈下。债务水平如此高涨，而对政府的信心却如此低迷，债券市场咔咔作响，欧洲政府惊慌失色。人们对于此类债券以及国家缩减开支并取得经济增长的信心跌至谷底，主权债券利率飙升（见下图）。

    这一切除了让初创企业家在浏览《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）时感到不那么舒服之外，还有什么价值？在此，我提三点建议：

    1. 做好准备，应对一切可能。我父亲过去一直告诉我：“不要臆断任何事情。”过去几个月，宏观经济形势的各种可能性都大增。我们进入了一个充满不确定性的时期，每个人都需要为空前开放的局面做好准备。经济能否挺过难关？我们能否避免经济二次探底？我们是进入了一场大范围的、五年期终局较量（去杠杆化，无增长）？如果高科技初创企业的主战场在云计算、电子商务、在线广告、移动服务等发展前景稳定的领域，它们能否安然无恙?

    没有人会知道，因此请为2012年制定一系列计划吧！这样，就可以根据客观的外部触发条件，实施不同的计划【《长远眼光的艺术》（The Art of the Long View）一书可以提供指导】。随时转备好这些方案，时机一到，马上付诸实施。

    2. 不能一直欠债不还。初创企业通常没有财务债（而且显然也不会达到某些主权国家债务那样的水平），但会有很多其他类型的债务，这些我们在日常生活中也能看到。例如：

    "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone." --James Carville

    The news out of Europe just goes from bad to worse. With debt levels so high and confidence in government so low, the bond market has come a knocking and is intimidating the heck out of European governments. Interest rates on sovereign debt soar (see chart below) when the trust in the sanctity of that debt, and the country's ability to tighten their belt while growing out of it, plummet.

    What does all of this mean for entrepreneurs, other than a queasy feeling in your stomach when you read glance at The Wall Street Journal? I have three pieces of advice:

    1. Plan for Anything. My father used to always tell me, "don't assume anything." The range of possible macroeconomic scenarios has exploded in the last few months. We are entering a time of such uncertainty that one needs to be prepared for a far broader range of scenarios than ever before. Will the economy muddle through? Will we avoid a double dip? Are we entering a massive, 5-year EndGame of de-leveraging and no growth? Will high tech entrepreneurs be unaffected when they play in such massive secular growth areas, such as cloud, e-commerce, online advertising, mobile and others?

    No one knows, so develop a range of plans for 2012 with objective external triggers that would steer you towards one plan or the other – see The Art of the Long View for a guide on how to do this – and have them on the shelf ready to execute when the time is right.

    2. You Can't Fund a Big Debt Forever. Startups don't typically take on financial debt (and certainly not at the level of a sovereign government), but there are many other kinds of debt in a startup in particular and in life in general that one can find oneself in the midst of. For example: