2012美国汽车业10大悬念

    每年汽车业都会出现新的不确定性，2012年也不例外。细节决定成败。随着美国经济逐渐向好，受压抑的需求得到增长，以及底特律三巨头扭亏为赢，汽车产业的生存已经不成问题。问题在于市场的构成：消费者究竟会购买大型皮卡还是小轿车？进口车还是美国本土货？汽油车还是电动车？

    在此仅列出2012年与汽车产业息息相关的10个问题，以及一些可能的答案：

1.底特律三巨头能否保住市场份额？

    2012车型年，底特律三巨头在美国国内所占的市场份额较为稳定，通用汽车（General Motors）和克莱斯勒（Chrysler）的市场占有率有所提高，只有福特的份额稍有下降。不过这个好消息可能只是暂时的，因为过去一年对于日本车商来说年景奇差。虽然美国市场回暖，但丰田（Toyota）和本田（Honda）在美国的销量都出现了下滑。不过其它进口品牌的市场份额一直在扩大。现代（Hyundai）和起亚（Kia）现在已成为美国市场上第6和第7大汽车品牌。同时雷克萨斯（Lexus）的销量也超过了别克（Buick）、凯迪拉克（Cadillac）和林肯（Lincoln）。日产（Nissan）制定了夺取美国市场占有率10%的目标，如果能够如愿以偿，届时日产将成为美国市场销量第4的品牌。大众汽车（Volkswagen）在美国的上升势头也很快，如果它能实现80万辆的年销售目标，那么其销量将相当于道奇（Dodge）和吉普（Jeep）两个品牌当前销量的总和。由此可见，哪怕只求保住现有份额，底特律三巨头也必须开足马力。

2. 丰田能否卷土重来？

    2011年是丰田历史上最多灾多难的一年，丰田接连经受了自然灾害（地震、海啸、洪水）、运营（召回）和财务（强势日元）上的打击。对丰田持悲观态度的人认为，丰田这个一度荣膺全球销量冠军的品牌已经无力回天了。丰田为争夺全球第一而栽了跟头，总裁丰田章男汲取教训，首次承诺将放弃“称霸”，不过这并不表示他退缩了。丰田公司宣布将借新车型上市之机，将2012年的汽车产量大幅提高20%。

3.克莱斯勒能否重演成功？

    克莱斯勒的浴火重生是2011年的一段佳话。在吉普品牌的带领下，克莱斯勒今年前11个月的销量飙升了25%，超过了业界10%的升幅均值。这要归功于克莱斯勒对某些现有产品的成功升级和抓人眼球的广告攻势。不过，2012年克莱斯勒发布的新车相对较少。竞争对手也会越来越密切地关注克莱斯勒。同时菲亚特（Fiat）在欧洲遇到的一系列问题也很可能会让CEO塞尔吉奥•马基奥尼分心。

4. 美国人究竟会不会爱上小型车？

    尽管雪佛兰科鲁兹（Chevy Cruze）和福特福克斯（Focus）这种小型车在市场上很有竞争力，但是美国市场上的畅销车型还是以全尺寸皮卡和中型轿车为主。今年高调上市的微型车菲亚特500遭到市场冷遇。油价走高和联邦法规等因素可能终有一天会让消费者开始考虑小型轿车，但现在看来，大家还都不着急。

    Every year brings new uncertainties to the car business, and 2012 will be no different. The devil will be in the details. With the U.S. economy expanding, pent-up demand growing, and the Detroit Three earning, the survival of the industry is not in question so much as is its composition. Will buyers be looking for big trucks or small cars, import brands or domestics, gasoline-power or electricity?

    Here are ten questions -- along with some possible answers -- that will churn the auto world in 2012:

1. Will the Detroit Three begin losing share again to the imports?

    Domestic market share was stable in 2012 with General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler gaining a bit and Ford (F, Fortune 500) losing a smidgen, but the good news may be only temporary. Detroit benefited from an unusually bad year for the Japanese, with both Toyota and Honda losing sales in a rising market. But other imports keep getting stronger. Hyundai and Kia are now the sixth and seventh most popular U.S. brands, while Lexus outsells Buick, Cadillac, and Lincoln. Nissan has targeted a 10% market share, which would put it in fourth place in U.S. sales. Moving up quickly is Volkswagen, which, if it achieves its goal of 800,000 car sales, would become as large as Dodge and Jeep combined are today. Detroit will have to drive fast just to stay even.

2. Can Toyota reload?

    Flattened by disasters natural (earthquake, tsunami, floods), operational (recalls), and financial (the expensive yen), Toyota suffered a landmark annus horribilis in 2011. Naysayers are insisting the former global sales champ has fallen back in the pack. Perhaps. President Akio Toyoda forswears any of the "we're Number One" talk that got the company in trouble the first time, but he isn't holding back; the automaker has announced plans to boost production on the strength of new models by an aggressive 20% in 2012.

3. Can Chrysler repeat its success?

    Chrysler's Phoenix-like rise from the ashes was the feel-good story of 2011. Led by Jeep, its sales rose 25% through November, outpacing the market's overall 10% gain. Credit the surge to some smart updates for the existing product line and some attention-getting advertising. But new model launches will be scarcer in 2012, competitors will be watching more closely, and CEO Sergio Marchionne will likely be distracted by problems in Europe at Fiat.

4. Will Americans ever get comfortable with small cars?

    Full-size pickups and mid-size sedans still dominate the best-seller list despite newly competitive small entries like the Chevy Cruze and Ford Focus. Meanwhile, the high-profile launch of the Fiat 500 minicar fizzled. Rising gasoline prices and federal regulations ensure that customers will have to think small someday, but nobody seems to be in a hurry to start.