《财富》未来指南

    史蒂夫•乔布斯生前曾说过，预测未来的最好方法就是亲手开创未来。这种方法可以聪明地归避掉对未来进行预测的种种固有风险。历史一向不乏失败的预言。许多预测都彻头彻尾地错了——它们通常低估了科技的发展。1899年美国专利局局长曾声称，任何能够被发明的东西都已经被发明出来了。到了20世纪，许多预言家们又断言道：汽车只是一种奇技淫巧之物，不堪重用；电视也只会昙花一现；宇宙旅行更是白日做梦。此外还有一些该做而事先却没有做出的预测，比如阿拉伯之春、欧债危机、9/11恐怖袭击等。

    乔帮主等少数精英商界领袖可能的确具有发明未来的能力，但大多数企业高管（或媒体人）只能被动地迎接未来。当然，这并不是说企业、大学和其它机构就不必费力地预测世界10年、20年或50年后的样子了。只有对未来进行预测，才能合理配置资源，根据预期变化开发产品和服务。为了编写《财富》杂志（Fortune）的未来指南，我们与一大批研究人员、预测人士、安全专家和分析师进行了交流，请他们为10年后的世界勾画一幅素描。这幅图画有时稍显黯淡，因为在全球范围内，网络恐怖主义、资源短缺和政治动荡看来仍然无法避免。但与此同时，难以置信的科技进步也会改变我们的学习、工作和娱乐方式，从而使未来变得更加乐观。就连陷入泥淖的美国经济也将在五、六年后强势回归，这在某种程度上也要归功于本文中列出的某些科技创新。FTI Consulting咨询公司全球风险和调查部门总经理彼得•诺兰表示：“我乐观地相信，美国经济会回归到有利地位。”

    即将到来的变化也可能会让一些人感到不适。比如公司老板们必须适应职场的民主化。等级制度可能会瓦解。有些团队可能在没有领导的情况下也能运转自如。最好的创意可能来自公司资历最浅的员工，或者甚至可能完全来自公司外部。《宏观维基经济学》（Macrowikinomics）的作者唐•塔普斯科特说：“以前，公司最重要的员工每天都很晚才离开办公室，而现在，他们可能根本都不用来办公室了。”

    美国国防高级研究计划署（the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency，简称DARPA）已经开始使用社交媒体来招揽新人才了。该机构的主任里贾纳•杜根说：“信不信，一个13岁的孩子也能为癌症的疗法做贡献？”DARPA运作着一个名叫Foldit的公共电脑游戏，玩家们会在游戏中对蛋白质进行折叠，在生物化学上，蛋白质折叠正是治疗癌症最大的阻碍之一。如果蛋白质折叠不当，则会导致疯牛病、老年痴呆症和囊胞性纤维症等疾病。这款游戏于2008年5月发布，至今已经有超过23.6万玩家注册，他们的参与有效地帮助科学家对一种酶的结构进行了解码，那种酶正是导致猕猴感染艾滋病的关键因素。这也是大众参与科学研究的第一个重大成功范例。杜根称：“参与者的人数和多样性的提高也有利于创新。”

    Steve Jobs once said that the best way to predict the future is to invent it. That's a clever way of dancing around the dangers inherent in the business of long-term forecasting. History is littered with the detritus of crystal-ball watchers. There are the dead-wrong predictions -- usually underestimating technology. The 1899 U.S. patent chief declares that anything that can be invented has been; 20th-century prognosticators follow with confident claims that the automobile is nothing more than a novelty, TV won't last, and space travel is a wild-eyed dream. Then there are the predictions that should have been made -- but weren't: the Arab Spring, the euro crisis, 9/11.

    A small handful of business leaders like Jobs may indeed be able to invent the future. Most executives (and journalists) are condemned to react to it. Of course that doesn't mean companies, universities, and other institutions shouldn't strive to figure out where the world is heading in 10, 20, or even 50 years -- so that they can deftly deploy resources and develop products and services that anticipate change. To produce Fortune's guide to the future, we talked to dozens of researchers, forecasters, security experts, and analysts whose jobs are to peer around corners, and we asked them to paint a picture of the world 10 years out. The portrait sometimes turned dark: cyberterrorism, resource shortages, and political instability around the world are all inevitable. But the experts offered a mostly optimistic view of the future, based on the mind-boggling scientific and technological advancements that will improve the way we learn, work, and play. Even the U.S. economy, which seems stuck in the doldrums, should come back strong in the second half of the coming decade -- partly on the strength of some of the innovations highlighted in this report. "I'm optimistic that the U.S. will come out the other end in a position of strength," says Peter Nolan, managing director in FTI Consulting's global risk and investigations practice.

    The coming changes will be uncomfortable for some. Bosses will need to adjust to a democratization of the workplace. Hierarchies may disappear; some teams may function without leaders. The best ideas may come from the most junior person in the company -- or from outside the organization altogether. "It used to be that your most important asset headed out the elevator every night," says Don Tapscott, co-author of Macrowikinomics. "Now your most important asset may never go up the elevator at all."

    The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, is already using social media to harness new talent. "What if a 13-year-old could contribute to a cure for cancer?" asks Regina Dugan, director of the agency. DARPA runs a public computer game called Foldit, in which competitors try to fold proteins, one of the most difficult biochemistry impediments to curing disease. Misfolded proteins lead to diseases such as mad cow, Alzheimer's, and cystic fibrosis. Since Foldit launched in May 2008, more than 236,000 gamers have registered, their contributions helping decipher the structure of an enzyme responsible for causing AIDS in rhesus monkeys -- the first example of a major breakthrough in crowd-sourced science, Dugan says. "Innovation," she notes, "benefits when the number and diversity of people participating goes up."