巴基斯坦前总理：我们有能力重建经济

    尽管每隔一段时间，巴基斯坦的坏消息就会满天飞，该国前总理及前财长肖卡特•阿齐兹依然对祖国的前景保持了谨慎的乐观，其中也包括美国从阿富汗有序撤军可能带来的和平红利。但他同时表示，最终还得取决于是否会出现类似马歇尔计划（Marshall Plan）的阿富汗重建方案，以及美国履行部落经济发展计划的情况。

    西方国家早已捉襟见肘、心烦意乱，因此这样的要求似乎太高了。这种“晴间多云”预测颇有技术官员的风格，它对于阿齐兹来说堪称家常便饭。这位前花旗银行（Citibank）高管曾在1999年佩尔韦兹•穆沙拉夫将军发动政变后出任巴基斯坦财长，在任期间巴基斯坦经济呈现强劲增长。（穆沙拉夫日前刚宣布，近期将冒着被捕的风险，从迪拜返回巴基斯坦。穆沙拉夫自从卸任总统一职后，一直住在迪拜。）

    现年64岁的阿齐兹于2004年当选巴基斯坦总理（虽然竞选时一度险遭暗杀），2007年卸任。此前，他的23位前任均半途卸任，他是首位完成整个任期的总理。卸任后不久，阿齐兹即移居伦敦，现任英国连锁酒店千禧国敦酒店集团（Millennium and Copthorne Hotels）董事和百仕通集团（Blackstone Group）顾问。

    近日阿齐兹接受了《财富》杂志（Fortune）专访，畅谈巴基斯坦经济现状、阿富汗重建事宜以及巴基斯坦应与美国达成自由贸易协定的缘由。下面是经过编辑的访谈记录：

高盛（Goldman Sachs）将巴基斯坦列入“新钻十一国”已六年有余。然而，当前巴基斯坦的情况是，通胀攀升，投资处于40年以来的低点，基础设施恶化，特别是电力行业。无论从哪项指标看，情况都不是特别好，你对巴基斯坦经济的乐观源于何处？

    世界经济问题显然也影响到了巴基斯坦。没错，投资额在下降，贸易额也一样，但就巴基斯坦而言，主要原因还是安全局势，也就是反恐战争。我们为此不得不付出巨大的代价，国内外投资者的信心深受打击。

    但同时，我们要知道巴基斯坦有2/3以上的人口居住在农村，农业情况不错，特别是棉花——棉花价格和出口量都出现了增长，农民生活相对改善。

    巴基斯坦的人力资本是一个很大的优势。巴基斯坦人民很聪明，技能出众，工作努力。还有很多巴基斯坦人在海外工作，我们可以再输出几百万的劳动力，而劳动力质量一点儿也不会差，因为我们有的是训练有素和尚未接受培训的劳动力。

你提到了需要好的管理。你会怎么评价当前的经济管理？特别是考虑到，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的稳定计划即将终止。

    抛开IM显然这反映了政府希望在推行改革时拥有更大的灵活性。IMF的计划确实带来了某种程度的宏观经济自律，它无疑是有益的，但同时我也相信经济主权。我们的确需要有良好的治理和管理，但将经济大权交給IMF绝不是办法。我们与世界其他国家一样，需要看到经济增长就业机会增加。

    Despite the regular eruptions of bad news from Pakistan, Shaukat Aziz, a former finance and prime minister there, remains cautiously bullish about his country's prospects, including the peace dividend that could come with the orderly exit of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. But that depends, he says, on a Marshall Plan-like reconstruction of Afghanistan -- and the U.S. delivering on tribal economic development plans.

    That might seem overly ambitious for distracted Western capitals with tapped out coffers. But the 'mostly-sunny' technocratic vision is not unusual for Aziz, a former Citibank (C) executive who presided over strong growth as finance minister after General Pervez Musharraf staged a coup in 1999. (Musharraf just announced he would shortly be returning to Pakistan -- and risking arrest -- from Dubai where he has been since leaving office.)

    Aziz, 64, was elected prime minister in 2004 (surviving an assassination attempt while campaigning) and was the first of 23 predecessors to serve out a full term, until 2007. He took up residence in London soon after and now serves on the board of the British hotel chain Millennium and Copthorne Hotels, and as an advisor to the Blackstone Group (BX).

    Aziz recently spoke with Fortune about the state of Pakistan's economy, how to rebuild Afghanistan, and why Pakistan deserves a free trade agreement with the U.S. Below is an edited transcript of that discussion.

It's been more than six years since Goldman Sachs (GS) recognized Pakistan among the Next Eleven newly industrialized countries -- inflation is up, investment is at a 40-year low, and infrastructure is deteriorating, particularly in the power sector. By just about any measure things are not particularly good, so what is the source of your optimism about the Pakistani economy?

    The problems of the world economy have obviously leaked to Pakistan. Yes, investment is down, trade also, but in Pakistan's case a lot of this is due to the security situation, the war on terror. We have to pay a huge price in terms of damaging our investor confidence -- both domestic and foreign.

    On the other hand, we should bear in mind that more than two-thirds of the population lives in rural areas and agriculture has done well, especially in cotton -- prices and exports are up and the farmer is relatively more comfortable.

    The country's human capital is a strong suit, the Pakistani people are very talented, their skills levels are impressive and they are hard-working. There's a huge number of Pakistanis working overseas and we can export a few more million and there won't be an iota of difference because there is a whole pipeline of trained – and untrained - people coming.

You mentioned the need for good management. How would you assess the current management of the economy? I ask that in light of the lapsing of the stabilization plan with the IMF.

    Being out of the IMF -- obviously this reflects the desire of the government to have more flexibility to pursue its reforms. The IMF program does bring with it certain macroeconomic discipline and that's beneficial, but I also believe in economic sovereignty. You need good governance and good management, but abdicating the economy to the IMF is not the way to succeed. What we need is growth and job creation, like every other country in the world.