麦当劳调整菜单对抗通胀

    不久你可能就会发现，你家附近麦当劳里的菜单出现了一些变化。这背后到底有什么文章？

    据路透社（Reuters）报道，麦当劳（McDonald）将于3月末对“一美元菜单”的菜品作出部分调整，同时将扩充超值菜单的选项，增加了20块麦乐鸡块、双层吉士汉堡、鸡肉快餐卷以及安格斯快餐卷。

    通过采访我们得知，麦当劳会把重点放在四个不同价位的用餐选择上（不包括套餐）：

    1、 优质菜单：4.50美元至5.50美元及以上

    2、 核心菜单：3.50美元至4.50美元

    3、 超值菜单（新）：1.20美元至3.50美元及以上

    4、 一美元菜单

    我们的同事，一位餐饮业咨询师试图弄清楚麦当劳当前做法的用意，他说：“温迪快餐连锁（Wendy’s）和麦当劳公司佯称，他们采用了神奇的价值定价法，能用低价向消费者提供高价值产品，我觉得这种说法很有意思。但实际上，他们的做法百分之百是由食品成本和消费者行为驱动的。”

    鉴于麦当劳预见到2012年通货膨胀仍会持续，我们认为，麦当劳将会迫使消费者升级购买超值菜单而不是一美元菜单，以此来维持自身利润。这次最大的改变之一是用新鲜烘焙的曲奇饼干和甜筒冰淇淋取代了一美元菜单中的小杯饮料和小份薯条。考虑到这一点，这种判断更有说服力了。

    我们认为这种调整对麦当劳来说风险很大。如果消费者的偏好是把饮料和薯条看作一美元菜单的组成部分，那么这种改变就有可能损害消费者的满意度。麦当劳公司在采访中称：“迷你套餐”的食品选项可能会把薯条、汉堡和饮料打包进去，但现在尚未确定。而一美元食品单点服务正在被取消。

    新的“超值菜单”广告将从3月26日开始播出。根据路透社报道，“新菜单将包括20块麦乐鸡块、双层吉士汉堡、鸡肉快餐卷、安格斯快餐卷、中杯冰咖啡、小量麦旋风（McFlurries），以及多达四种区域性食品选项，这些选项之前没有列入超值菜单。”麦当劳的想法是简化菜单，改变菜单中的主打品类。麦当劳显然喜欢换一种说法来传达这个想法，这家公司声称：调整的目的是为了‘方便消费者找到（超值菜单选项）’。”

    在我们看来，问题在于，“一美元菜单”已经存在很长时间了。通货膨胀已经让其成为无利可图但又不得不保留的累赘。消费者也感受到了通胀的压力，原来他们会购买核心菜单上六七美元的套餐，而现在他们会选择更划算的一美元套餐。我们认为，麦当劳最近的举措目的就是要努力遏制顾客从核心菜单流向一美元菜单。这种调整使得四月份的销售额显得尤为重要，因为投资者将会密切关注新菜单是否能能够奏效。

    Some incremental changes are coming to a McDonald's menu near you – what are the implications?

    Later this month, McDonald's will change some of its Dollar Menu items and it will begin offering an expanded value menu, including 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, and Angus snack wraps, according to Reuters.

    As we learned in a conversation with the company, McDonald's is focusing its menu on four tiers (not including combo meals):

    1. Premium: $4.50-$5.50+

    2. Core: $3.50-$4.50

    3. Extra Value Menu (new): $1.20 to $3.50+

    4. Dollar menu

    In trying to understand the implications of what McDonald's is doing, a restaurant industry consultant and associate of ours had this to say: "I get a kick out of these corporate guys at Wendy's (WEN) and McDonald's pretending they have some magical formula for value pricing. It's 100% driven by food costs and customer behavior."

    Given that McDonald's (MCD) is seeing increasing inflation in 2012, we believe the company is trying to manage its margins by forcing consumers to trade up to the "extra value menu" from the "dollar menu." This makes more sense when we consider that one of the biggest changes is to remove small drinks and small fries from the dollar menu and replace those items with fresh baked cookies and ice cream cones.

    We see this as a big risk for McDonald's. If customer preference is to have the drink and fries as part of the dollar menu then there is a risk that this change negatively impacts customer satisfaction. The company told us that a "mini-combo meal" offering may bundle the fries, burger, and drink but a decision has not been made on that yet. Still, ordering the $1 items individually is being taken off the table.

    The new "Extra Value Menu" will be advertised on March 26th. According to Reuters, "the new menu will include 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, Angus snack wraps, medium iced coffees and snack-sized McFlurries, plus up to four regional options, that were previously listed elsewhere on its menu." The idea for McDonald's is to streamline and change what is highlighted on the menu. The company likes to phrase this differently, saying that it is "making it easier for customers to find ['Extra Value Menu' items]."

    From our perspective, the big problem is that the "Dollar Menu" has been around for a very long time. Inflation has made it an unprofitable but necessary evil. Customers, also pressed by inflation, have been migrating from the combo meals on the core menu, which can cost $6-$7, over to the Dollar Menu where customers get almost double the value from a price perspective. We view this latest change as an attempt by the company to stem this flow of business from the core menu to the dollar menu. This adds an extra emphasis on the importance of April sales; investors will be watching closely for an indication of whether or not the new menu strategy is working.