摩根大通一季报盈利超预期

    杰米•戴蒙再次大显神通。问题是这位首席执行官的魔力还能在摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）持续多久。

    摩根大通今年前三个月实现净利润54亿美元，部分得益于利率下降为按揭部门创造的数亿美元超额利润。每股收益1.31美元，高于分析师此前预测的1.15美元。

    4月13日早间，富国银行（Wells Fargo）也宣布，同样也是因为得益于按揭销售增加，今年一季度净利润同比小幅上升至42亿美元。另外，当季新增坏账减少了9%。同摩根大通一样，富国银行的业绩也好于预期。摩根大通和富国银行是最先发布季报的两家大银行，由此看来，至少银行业目前的状况正在改善。

    不过，摩根大通的净利润较上年同期的56亿美元下降了3%。而且，有迹象显示，这家美国最大的银行未来可能还会有麻烦。摩根大通增加了22亿美元的拨备，用于支付未来的诉讼费用。该公司表示，增加的这部分成本主要涉及按揭业务。

    一位分析师在摩根大通的电话会议上称，该公司对止赎预期过于乐观。法国农业信贷银行（Credit Agricole）分析师迈克•梅奥质疑在利率这么低的情况下，摩根大通开设分支机构能否继续赚钱。摩根大通高管称，公司按揭业务超额利润可能是暂时的。戴蒙称，他预计摩根大通住房贷款业务“成本和支出保持高位”的状况还将“持续一段时间”。4月13日午盘，摩根大通股价下跌近了3%，降到了43.58美元。

    不管如何，摩根大通还是发布了很多好消息。一季度实现营收274亿美元，较2011年四季度环比激增24%，较上年同期增长了6%。期间，零售和银行业务销售跃升了40%，从而带来了这些积极的变化。摩根大通称，利率下降吸引消费者对住房贷款进行再融资，美国政府的“房贷可负担再融资计划”（Home Affordable Refinance Program）也使该公司获益。信用卡业务销售增长，冲销贷款减少。另外，摩根大通还将信用卡损失拨备减少了9,600万美元，增加了信用卡部门的利润。消费者和企业存款均增长了8%。

    虽然交易利润较四季度环比显著增长，但这个部门的业绩增长部分被投行业务盈利和收入同比双降所抵消。很多观察人士说过，今年华尔街盈利有望改善。摩根大通称，按费用计，摩根大通已经是美国第一大投行。

    摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙称，他对业绩感到满意，该公司持续加强其“稳固的资产负债表”。他还说，他相信住房市场已经触底，摩根大通预计今年止赎量将下降也反映了这一点。在季报电话会议上，摩根大通首席财务官道格拉斯•布朗斯坦被问道有关公司首席投资办公室正在进行大笔高风险投资的报告。布朗斯坦表示，这些交易是出于对冲考虑，而且他相信根据沃克尔规则（Volcker Rule）, 这些交易是可以进行的。沃克尔规则是多德弗兰克金融改革法案的一部分，但尚未开始实施。戴蒙称：“我们整个批发业务的信贷趋势稳定，而且还在持续加强。”

    译者：早稻米

    Jamie Dimon pulled another rabbit out of his hat. The question is how much longer the CEO can continue to make magic at JPMorgan Chase.

    JPMorgan (JPM) earned $5.4 billion in the first three months of the year, driven in part by lower interest rates that produced hundreds of millions of dollars of excess profits in its mortgage division. On a per share basis, JPMorgan's bottom line came in at $1.31 in earnings. Analysts had been predicting the company would earn $1.15 per share.

    Also on Friday morning, Wells Fargo (WFC) said its earnings in the first quarter of the year rose slightly from a year ago to $4.2 billion, also boosted by an uptick in its mortgage sales. The company also said 9% fewer loans went bad in the quarter. Like with JPMorgan, Well's results were better than expected. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are the first two of the large banks to report earnings to investors, signalling that at least for now, things seem to be improving in the banking sector.

    Still, JPMorgan's bottom line fell 3% from the $5.6 billion the company produced in profits in the same period a year ago. And there were some signs that problems might be ahead for the nation's biggest bank. JPMorgan added $2.2 billion to the money it puts aside to pay for future litigation expenses. The company said much of the addition costs were related to its mortgage operations.

    On the company's conference call, one analyst said the company's foreclosure expectations were too optimistic. Mike Mayo, an analyst at Credit Agricole Securities, questioned whether the company could continue to make money opening branches with interest rates so low. JPMorgan executives said the company's excess mortgage profits were likely temporary. Dimon said he expects JPMorgan to have "elevated levels of costs and expenses" in its home loan division for "a while longer." What's more, at mid-day, JPMorgan's shares had fallen nearly 3% to $43.58.

    Nonetheless, there was a lot of good news at JPMorgan. Revenue in the first quarter was $27.4 billion, which was 24% higher than in the last three months of 2011, and 6% more than what it had in sales a year ago. The positive results were driven by its retail and banking division, where sales jumped 40%. JPMorgan said lower rates encouraged customers to refinancing their home loans, and that it benefited as well from the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program. In credit cards, sales were up and the company wrote off fewer loans. The company also lowered its provision for card losses by $96 million, which also added to the division's bottom line. Deposits for both consumers and businesses were up 8%.

    The gains in that division were partly offset by a drop in earnings and revenue in the company's investment banking division from a year ago, though trading profits were up significantly from the fourth quarter. A number of observers have said that profits appear to improving on Wall Street this year. The company said it ranked as the number one investment bank in the country by fees.

    CEO Dimon said he was pleased with the results and that the company has continued to strengthen its "fortress balance sheet." He said he believe housing bottomed, and that his firm's expectation that foreclosures would drop over the course of the year reflected that. On the conference call, JPMorgan's CFO Douglas Braunstein was asked about reports that the bank is making large risky bets in its chief investment office. Braunstein said that the trading was hedging purposes and he believed it would be allowed under the Volcker Rule, which was passed as part of the Dodd-Frank financial regulator reform, but has not been implemented. Said Dimon, "Credit trends across our wholesale portfolios were stable and continued to be strong."