阿根廷油企国有化引发全球连锁反应

    如果YPF被国有化，雷普索尔公司将蒙受损失。

    阿根廷即将国有化雷普索尔（Repsol）在阿根廷的子公司YPF可能预示着阿根廷能源产业全面国有化的开始。

    谁会是这场行动的最大受害者？大多数情况下，大型跨国能源公司受损不会过于严重。由于阿根廷政府拿走了能源项目利润的大头，它们刻意避免在阿根廷大举投资。诚然，阿根廷政府通过激励方案吸引了数家国内外能源公司，但大多数激励方案已在今年早些时候取消。而现在，当初“上钩”的公司面临着失去一切的危险。

    阿根廷以其欧式气息引以为傲。美丽的学院派建筑和宽阔的大道使阿根廷不断扩张的首都布宜诺斯艾利斯获得了“南美巴黎”的称号。虽然阿根廷的文化、建筑、饮食和语言与欧洲类似，但是在过去十年中，其经济和政府行事风格更像香蕉共和国（中、南美洲发展中国家－－译注），而不象欧盟成员国。从过去十年令人震惊的政府债务违约，到近期国有化240亿美元规模的养老基金，阿根廷正千方百计地疏远国内外的投资者。

    阿根廷政府让投资者倍感挫败的一个领域就是能源行业。阿根廷拥有庞大的石油和天然气储备，足以满足国内需求，同时还有大量油气产品可以用于出口。但阿根廷却是天然气和石油产品的净进口国。这主要是因为过去十年政府债务违约期间，能源价格飞涨，致使一系列法律出台。阿根廷政府采取措施，控制能源产品价格，限制天然气的出口，以安抚不安的民众。这样一来，能源公司若想赢利就变得异常艰难。而一旦它们真正实现赢利，政府又会征收35%的利润税，并根据石油产品价值额外征收12%的特许权使用费。

    那些不热衷在阿根廷投资的国外能源公司以及YPF等国内能源公司都减少了油气产量。1998年至2011年间，阿根廷的能源产量骤降了三分之一。阿根廷政府深知，必须采取措施刺激生产，于是在2006至2008年间，向从页岩等非传统来源提取油气产品的公司提供价格激励。如此一来，许多公司开始在阿根廷寻找新的石油和天然气来源。

    但是，正当有些公司取得一定进展时，阿根廷政府却改变了策略。自克莉丝蒂娜•费尔南德斯•德基什内尔去年取得压倒性胜利，再次当选阿根廷总统以来，能源公司的运营变得举步维艰。她首先要求国内外能源公司返还其利润所得，对阿根廷进行再投资。今年2月，她突然取消了使钻探具备商业价值的激励方案。随后，又提出将能源行业“收归人民所有”。

    YPF是阿根廷有史以来最大的能源公司，也被外界视为这次国有化行动的头号目标。二十世纪九十年代末，YPF被私有化并被公开出售。目前，西班牙雷普索尔拥有YPF约57%的股份，但是如果阿根廷政府成功使其资产国有化，雷普索尔在YPF的控股权将锐减到6%。YPF是雷普索尔能源产品的主要组成部分，占其总储量的42%。

    Argentina's impending expropriation of Repsol's Argentine subsidiary, YPF, could signal the start of a total takeover of the nation's energy industry.

    Who will be hurt most? The large multi-national energy companies will, for the most part, come out relatively unscathed. They had shunned making large investments in the country due to the government's high profit take on energy projects. But the government did manage to lure in a few domestic and international energy companies through incentives, most of which were canceled earlier this year. Those companies that took the bait now stand to lose everything.

    Argentina prides itself as being very European. Its sprawling capital, Buenos Aires, is known as the Paris of South America for its beautiful beaux-arts buildings and wide boulevards. But while Argentina's culture, architecture, food and language may be very European, its economy and government in the past decade has functioned more like a banana republic than a member of the European Union. From its shocking government debt default last decade to the recent $24 billion expropriation of the nation's pension funds, Argentina has gone out of its way to alienate investors, both foreign and domestic.

    One area where the government has failed investors is in its energy industry. Argentina has sizable oil and natural gas reserves, enough to meet its own demand and still have more than enough to export abroad. Nevertheless, the country is a net importer of natural gas and oil products. Much of this discrepancy derives from a series of laws instituted during the default last decade when energy prices skyrocketed. The government moved to cap energy product prices and restrict the export of natural gas to appease a restless population. This made it very hard for energy companies to make a profit. When they did, the government would tax profits by 35% and take an additional 12% royalty fee on the value of oil production.

    Foreign energy companies where not enthused about investing in the country and domestic energy companies, like YPF, decreased their production. From 1998 to 2011, Argentina's energy output plummeted by a third. Knowing that they needed to do something to spur production, in 2006 and 2008, the government offered pricing incentives to companies that produced oil and gas from unconventional plays, like shale. This induced many companies to start looking for new sources of oil and natural gas in the country.

    But just when some companies were showing some success, the government changed tack. Since winning reelection in a landslide last year, Argentina's President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, has been making life hard for the energy companies. She first ordered that domestic and foreign energy companies repatriate all the proceeds from their profits and reinvest them back into the country. In February, she abruptly canceled the incentives that had made it worthwhile to drill. Then came talk of taking the industry "back for the people."

    YPF was seen as the most at risk for expropriation as it is by far the largest energy company in Argentina. YPF was privatized in the late-1990s and sold off to the public. Spain's Repsol currently owns around 57% of the company, but could be left with just 6% if the government is successful in expropriating its assets. YPF is a major part of Repsol's energy portfolio, making up 42% of its reserves.