美国大银行贷款下降加深经济复苏担忧

    美国经济复苏或将夭折出现了新的迹象：去年大部分时间都保持增长的美国大银行贷款在2012年前3个月出现了下降。

    贷款下降的同时，大银行开始面临监管部门及债券评级机构更加严格的审查，同时，越来越多的迹象表明，美国经济正在再次走软。上周，美国政府公布，美国一季度GDP仅增长了2.2%，低于分析人士之前的预期。周一，高盛（Goldman Sachs）首席美国经济学家简•哈祖斯预计4月份美国仅增加了就业人数12.5万。这个数字大大低于短短两个月前的24万。

    贷款下降是美国经济令人担忧的另一个迹象。银行缩减贷款将使中小企业更难获得资金进行业务扩张。另一方面，贷款下降也说明贷款需求减少，说明企业和个人因为担忧当前经济状况而不愿贷款。

    摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）、富国银行（Wells Fargo）、美国银行（Bank of America）和花旗集团（Citigroup）今年前3个月贷款总额缩减了240亿美元，与去年全年美国四大银行贷款增加340亿美元的情况大相径庭。下降幅度最大的是消费贷款，其中信用卡贷款下降了近6%，住房净值贷款下降了2%多一点。按揭贷款略增，但很多是因为人们用更低利率贷款对贷款进行再融资，而不是实际的新增贷款。

    更重要的是，大型银行贷款下降正值银行业贷款总体呈现增长之时。这是另一个证据，表明美国大型银行尚未完全从金融危机中恢复元气。周一，美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve, Fed）称，一季度银行业总体上放宽了贷款标准。美联储的数据显示，美国一季度银行贷款总额增加了约950亿美元。

    贷款下降最多的是美国银行。过去两年，美国银行的贷款余额缩减了780亿美元。去年，该行退出了由外部按揭经纪人出售的融资贷款业务。目前仅提供由银行雇员办理出售的住房贷款，结果大幅压缩了该行的住房贷款业务。

    “美国银行受按揭贷款业务冲击很严重，”罗奇代尔证券公司（Rochdale Securities）跟踪银行股的迪克•波维称。“很多银行仍处于保护模式。”

    译者：早稻米

    Here's another sign that the economic recovery may be fizzling: Big bank lending, which had risen for most of last year, dropped in the first three months of 2012.

    The loan drop comes as big banks face new scrutiny from regulators and bond rating firms, and when there are growing signs that the economy is weakening, again. Last week, the government said that GDP grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, which was less than analysts had predicted. On Monday, Goldman Sachs' top U.S. economist Jan Hatzius predicted that the economy only added 125,000 jobs in April. That would be down from 240,000 jobs just two months ago.

    A drop in lending is another worrying sign for the economy. When banks cut their lending, it makes it harder for small businesses to get money to expand. But a drop in lending could also signal a drop in demand for loans, meaning businesses and individual don't want to borrow because they are worried about the economy.

    JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) cut their lending by a collective $24 billion in the first three months of the year. That was a change from last year when lending rose $34 billion at the nation's four biggest banks in all of 2012. The biggest drops were in consumer lending, where credit card loans fell nearly 6% and home equity lines of credit dropped just over 2%. Mortgage lending was up slightly, but much of those home loans were the result of people refinancing to lower rates, and not actual new loans.

    What's more, the drop at the big banks comes at a time when lending at banks in general appears to be growing. That's an other sign that the nation's biggest banks still haven't fully healed from the financial crisis. On Monday, the Federal Reserve said that banks in general had eased their lending standards in the first quarter. According to Fed data, the overall volume of bank loans in the U.S. rose by about $95 billion in the first quarter.

    The biggest drop in loans came at Bank of America. Loans outstanding at B of A have dropped $78 billion in the past two years. Last year, the bank got out of the business of the business of funding loans sold by outside mortgage brokers. The firm now only makes home loans that are sold by a bank employee. That has cut the bank's home lending activities dramatically.

    "Bank of America got hurt pretty badly by its mortgage business," says analyst Dick Bove, who follows bank stocks for Rochdale Securities. "Banks are still in protection mode."