雷曼危机或重演？FDIC称已做好应对

    下一个雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）不会在一夜之间突然冒出，这个过程可能会有几个月。问题是这次会不会有什么改进。

    上周四，美国联邦存款保险公司（Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.，简称FDIC，是由美国联邦政府创办、为商业银行储蓄客户提供保险的公司——编者注）代理主席马丁•格伦伯格在芝加哥联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago）举办的一次会议上发表讲话，首次公布了如果雷曼危机重演、政府将采取的应对计划。根据多德-弗兰克（Dodd-Frank）银行改革法案，FDIC有责任接手监管部门认为濒临破产的大银行。

    格伦伯格表示，FDIC的计划是由政府接管濒危大银行的母公司，不让它立即破产。然后，FDIC会解雇该银行的高管和董事会，接管其子公司，如分支机构或股票交易业务，直到FDIC为这家濒危银行找到买家。格伦伯格称，在这个过程中，FDIC将抹去这家银行的股票价值，把该行的一些债券转换成新银行的股票。其他债券持有人将承担一些损失。而政府会提供融资，让该行继续经营下去。

    格伦伯格表示，整个过程可能需要几个月，但总的来说，这样做要比雷曼破产后造成的一片混乱好很多。“这一清算策略的目标是采取一些能维持金融稳定的可行做法，”他说。FDIC与大银行一直都有定期联系，这一计划获得的反映总体积极。“他们普遍认为，我们的计划听起来不错，”格伦伯格称。

    在上周四的会议上，有人质疑这个计划是否行得通。Rochdale Securities的银行业分析师理查德•博弗认为，这个计划会让银行股的风险更高。佛罗里达大学（University of Florida）的经济学家马克•弗兰纳瑞表示，银行很精明，会想出各种办法来转移所有资产，政府掌控不了他们。

    以前也有人质疑，FDIC是否能强制要求破产银行的债券持有人承担损失。如果这些债券的持有人是其他银行，甚至可能会导致其他银行破产。斯坦福大学（Stanford University）的经济学家艾耐特•阿德玛迪也是帮助FDIC制定清算计划的顾问委员会成员，他说，政府还需要敲定一个问题，即决定何时由FDIC接管一家银行的具体流程。“计划可以订得很漂亮，”阿德玛迪表示，“问题是计划是否真的能启动。”

    一位与会者问格伦伯格，FDIC会不会考虑在房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）上实验其破产清算授权。格伦伯格回应称，对于2008年底政府接管的大型按揭贷款担保公司，FDIC没有破产清算授权。

    最近，美国一些共和党众议员呼吁取消多德-弗兰克法案中给予FDIC破产清算授权的内容。格伦伯格似乎比较乐观，相信这些做法不会得逞。“两党普遍认为，大到不能倒绝非好事。”格伦伯格表示，“没有这一点（即破产清算授权），公众取向将造成行业竞争更加不均衡。”

    译者：早稻米

    The next Lehman Brothers may not happen over the course of a weekend. It could take a couple of months. The question is if that would be an improvement.

    On Thursday, Martin Gruenberg, who is the acting chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., speaking at a conference put on by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, laid out for the first time publicly the government's plan to deal with the next Lehman Brothers-like failure. Under the Dodd-Frank bank reform law, the FDIC has the responsibility of wind-downing large banks that regulators think are headed for bankruptcy.

    He said the FDIC's plan is for the government to take over the parent company of a troubled large bank, rather than let it fail immediately. The FDIC would then fire the bank's executives and its board, and run its subsidiaries, like its branches or its stock trading operations, until the FDIC was able to find a buyer for the failed bank. In the process, Gruenberg says, the FDIC would wipe out the value of the bank's stock. Some of the bank's bonds would be converted into stock in the new bank. Other bond holders would take some losses. And the government would provide the financing to let the company continue to run.

    The whole process could take a couple of months, Gruenberg said. But he said it would be a better route for the market in general than what happened after Lehman. "The goal of the resolution strategy is to come up with something that could be used and maintain financial stability," says Gruenberg. Gruenberg says his agency has been in constant contact with the big banks and generally the reaction has been positive to the plan. "Their general response is that our plan make sense."

    At the conference on Thursday, some questioned whether the plan would work. Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Rochdale Securities, said he thought the plan would make bank stocks more risky. Mark Flannery, an economist at the University of Florida, said banks were savvy enough to figure out how to shift all their assets so that the government wouldn't be able to get a hold of them.

    Others in the past have questioned if the FDIC would be able to force bond holders of a failed bank to take losses. If the holders of those bonds are other banks, then that could cause other banks to fail as well. Anat Admati, an economist at Stanford University, who is on the advisory panel that helped the FDIC come up with resolution plan, says the government still has to iron out its process for deciding when the FDIC would take over a bank. "One can do a great job of preparing a plan," says Admati. "The question is whether it would really get triggered."

    One participant asked Gruenberg if the FDIC would consider testing its resolution authority on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Gruenberg responded that the FDIC had no authority over the large mortgage guarantee companies that were taken over by the government in late 2008.

    Republicans in the House of Representatives have recently begun an initiative to repeal the part of the Dodd-Frank law that gives the FDIC resolution authority. Gruenberg seemed optimistic that those efforts wouldn't succeed. "There's fairly broad bi-partisan agreement that too big to fail is not a good thing," says Gruenberg. "Without this, you create an expectation of public support that creates an uneven playing field."