通用汽车后院起火，本土市场份额缩水

    今年到目前为止，通用汽车（General Motors）在美国市场的份额有所下降，这给通用近来抢眼的复苏之势蒙上了一层阴影。重组后的通用不仅面临着产能的限制，另外随着其他国内外厂商渐渐恢复元气，通用也正在面临着越来越大的竞争压力。

    不过通用的“援兵”可能很快就到了。未来几个月内，通用的高端子品牌凯迪拉克（Cadillac）将推出两款重要的新车型，一款是打算与雷克萨斯（Lexus）LS460和奔驰（Mercedes）S级等大尺寸轿车相竞争的XTS，另一款尺寸稍小的ATS轿车则瞄准了宝马（BMW）3系和奥迪（Audi）A4这一级别。

    今年头四个月，通用在美国市场的份额从19.6%下滑到了17.7%。按目前美国车市的规模计算，每下滑一个百分点，就意味着每年要少卖出大约14万辆汽车。与去年同期相比，凯迪拉克的销量更是下跌了将近24%。

    位于密歇根州安娜堡市的汽车研究中心（Center for Automotive Research）首席经济学家肖恩•麦卡林登认为，通用近来市场占有率走低的原因有二：一是由于通用在2009年破产重组期间削减了新车型的研发投资；二是由于产能限制——包括直列四缸发动机的产能限制。他在一封邮件中称：“原因非常复杂，”并不是通用高层的错。根据《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）本周的报道，经济危机期间，美国和加拿大共有32个汽车工厂、300多万辆的产能被关闭。

    通用目前在北美正处于全产能生产的状态，而且还大量使用加班工人。也就是说，通用已经没办法在现有产量上大幅扩产。有些经济危机期间被封存的工厂（如田纳西州的春山市工厂）也很有可能会重新启动。

    除了通用之外，福特汽车（Ford）也面临着产能吃紧的局面，它的市场份额也相应地下跌了8.0%。此外不得不提的是东山再起的克莱斯勒（Chrysler），2012年它的美国市场份额强势上升2个百分点，销量比去年猛增了33%。归功于强大的营销运作和新车型的成功投放，克莱斯勒200、克莱斯勒300和吉普大切诺基（Jeep Grand Cherokee）等车型的销量都出现了飙升。

    与此同时，日本汽车业也正在从去年地震和海啸的余波中迅速恢复。尤其是丰田（Toyota）今年在美销量比去年增加了12%，而且预计丰田2013财年的营业利润或将比去年翻一番，达到95亿美元。丰田去年将全球汽车销量冠军的宝座拱手让给了通用。

    由于豪华汽车的利润奇高无比，因而凯迪拉克作为通用的高端子品牌，其竞争力的加强无疑有助于夯实通用的财务资本，同时也有助于稳定甚至逆转市场份额的流失情况。通用试图将凯迪拉克定位成一个全球性的豪华车品牌，但到目前为止仍然收效甚微。不过中国市场的增长也许会为凯迪拉克提供更多机会，尤其是考虑到现在，凯迪拉克又有了更多的车型可供选择。

    不过，欧洲当前面临的经济困难可能意味着宝马、奔驰、奥迪和大众（VW）等厂商将加倍努力地在美国进行销售，因为与一蹶不振的欧洲相比，美国消费者的汽车消费在沉寂了几年之后终于再度大幅上扬。今年欧洲品牌在美国的总体销量较去年上涨了23%，而且获得了1%的市场份额。

    未来几个月，在美国总统大选期间，候选人们可能会就产业政策问题进行大量辩论——尤其是今年已经进入第三年的美国汽车产业重组战略。虽然眼下的局面比较艰难，但通用无疑希望能通过它的销量业绩交出一份让候选人们满意的答卷，令他们收获褒奖、而不是批评。

    译者：朴成奎

    General Motors Co.'s share of a strengthening U.S. vehicle market has taken a hit so far in 2012, a sour note in its remarkable recovery story. A refocused GM is facing constraints to its ability to produce vehicles as well as tougher competition from domestic and foreign automakers also on the mend.

    Help for GM (GM) could arrive soon. Its tony Cadillac division in coming months will benefit from two key new-model introductions: a large XTS sedan designed to compete with models like the Lexus LS460 and Mercedes S-Class as well as a smaller ATS, which will go head to head with models like the BMW 3 Series and Audi A4.

    GM's U.S. market share dropped to 17.7% from 19.6% through the first four months of the year. Each point of share represents roughly 140,000 vehicles annually in today's market. Cadillac sales have fallen almost 24% compared with the same period last year.

    Sean McAlinden, chief economist for the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan attributes GM's lower market share to a cutback on new-model investment during its 2009 bankruptcy restructuring and capacity constraints, including limitations on the number of four-cylinder engines the automaker can build. "It's very complex," he wrote in an email and "not the fault" of top GM management. During the latest economic downturn 32 automotive plants representing more than 3 million units of production closed down in the U.S. and Canada, according to a report this week in Automotive News, a trade publication.

    GM, using extensive overtime labor, is operating at full capacity in North America. That means that the company simply can't build many more cars and trucks than it already is. Some plants that were mothballed, such as a factory in Spring Hill, Tennessee, might be brought back into service.

    GM is not alone. Ford (F), also experiencing tight production capacity, has given up 0.8% of a point of share. But Chrysler, 2012's comeback star, has posted a strong two-point bounce in U.S. share on 33% better sales this year. Sales of the Chrysler 200, Chrysler 300 and Jeep Grand Cherokee are soaring, on the strength of powerful marketing campaigns and successful new launches.

    The Japanese auto industry, meantime, is recovering rapidly from the effects of last year's earthquake and tsunami. Toyota (TM), in particular, has sold 12% more vehicles in the U.S. this year and is forecasting that its corporate profit will more than double in fiscal 2013 to $9.5 billion. Toyota last year relinquished the title of top seller of vehicles globally to GM.

    A more competitive Cadillac should prove a boost to GM's finances since luxury cars are disproportionately profitable. It could also help stanch or reverse the loss of share. GM has attempted to position Cadillac as a worldwide luxury brand, so far with little success. A growing Chinese market may prove more welcoming, especially with a wider ranger of models.

    But Europe's economic troubles could mean that BMW, Mercedes, Audi and VW will redouble efforts to sell aggressively in the U.S., where consumers finally are starting to boost automotive spending after several timid years. European brands in the aggregate are up 23% for the year and have gained a point of market share already.

    The next few months of the U.S. presidential campaign promise much debate over industrial policy, especially the three-year-old restructuring of Detroit. Facing a tough picture, GM is surely hoping that its results will fuel an argument over which candidates deserve most of the credit, not the blame.