俄中角力民航客机新兴市场之争
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上周，苏霍伊公司的原型客机在赴印尼展演期间不幸坠毁的消息震惊了全世界，俄罗斯重振民用飞机业的梦想不得不暂时搁浅。这起灾难似乎证明了全球民用航空业仍然是由波音（Boeing）和空客（Airbus）主宰的双头垄断市场，但这并不意味着俄罗斯和中国等新兴竞争者就没戏了。中俄等国的航空企业得到了政府的大力支持，并且有数十亿美元的资金可以自由支配，因此他们纷纷决心在有利可图、且日益增长的民用航空市场上分一杯羹。 上周坠毁的飞机是俄罗斯最新设计的苏霍伊超级100型支线客机。牵一发而动全身，事故震动了整个民航业。除了45人在这次空难中殒命外，这次坠机对刚刚重组的俄罗斯航空业也是个致命的打击。这架飞机是在参加六国巡回展演的途中失事的。机上除了机组人员和记者之外，还有来自几家印尼航空公司的顾问和代表。这些公司原本都有意订购这款新飞机，充实不断壮大的机组。 印尼官方表示，由于坠机地点十分偏远，因此对坠机原因的调查可能至少需要四个月甚至一年的时间。俄罗斯政府曾请求印尼官方将失事飞机的黑匣子和飞行记录器转交给莫斯科，但遭到了印尼方面的拒绝，理由是印尼政府希望确保获得一个公平和客观的调查结果。 我们可以理解为什么俄罗斯急着控制、加快对失事原因的调查。因为如果调查结果显示是某种设计缺陷导致了失事，它对俄方的损失将是难以估量的。另外在调查结束之前，潜在客户也很可能暂停签订该机的采购合约，影响俄方的生产日程。另外由于该型客机是苏联（the Soviet Union）解体后的第一架民用飞机，因此客户很可能也会对其它处于设计阶段的俄制客机心生芥蒂。 不过这并不意味着俄罗斯航空业走到头了。俄罗斯总统普京把航空业的复兴当成了提升民族自豪感的一个重要工具，而且已经为此投入了数十亿美元的资金。另外，像图波列夫（Tupolev）和伊留申（Ilyushin）等前苏联飞机制造厂一度曾是波音（Boeing）和空客（Airbus）的劲敌。只是随着冷战（the Cold War）于1992年结束，前苏联航空业因为缺乏资金而难以为继。 |
Russia's dream of resurrecting its moribund commercial aircraft industry has been put on hold following last week's spectacular crash of its shiny new prototype. But while the accident appears to solidify the commercial aviation duopoly controlled by Boeing and Airbus, the Russians, as well as other new competitors in the field like the Chinese, shouldn't be written off just yet. With strong government support and billions of dollars at their disposal, the new start-ups are determined to grab a piece of the lucrative and growing market for commercial aircraft. The fiery crash of Russia's newly designed Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional aircraft last week in Indonesia has shaken the tightly knit commercial aviation industry. In addition to being a human tragedy -- 45 people lost their lives -- the crash was also a marketing disaster for Russia's revamped aviation industry. The crash occurred on a demonstration flight as part of a carefully scheduled six-nation Asian road show. Onboard were journalists, aircraft consultants and representatives from a number of Indonesian airlines who were looking to add the Russian-made jet to their growing fleet. Indonesian officials say that an investigation into the cause of the crash would take at least four months and could last as long as a year given the remote location of the crash site. The Indonesian government has refused the Russian government's request to transfer the plane's black box and flight recorder to Moscow, saying that it wants to ensure a fair an objective investigation into the cause of the crash. It is understandable why Russia wants to control and speed up the crash investigation. It has a lot to lose if it is determined that a design flaw of some sort was responsible for bringing down the jet. Potential customers will most likely hold off from signing any new agreements to purchase the plane until the investigation is complete, putting a dent in Moscow's production timetable. And since the plane is Russia's first new commercial aircraft since the fall of the Soviet Union, the fear is that customers will probably be wary of taking a peak at other new Russian jets on the drawing board. But this isn't the end of the road for Russia's aerospace industry. President Vladimir Putin considers the resurrection of the industry as a point of national pride and has committed billions to the cause. Russian aircraft makers like Tupolev and Ilyushin were at one time true competitors to Boeing (BA) and Airbus. But when the Cold War ended in 1992 funding to the industry dried up. |
