美国财政悬崖或许只是一道坎

    就在欧洲疲于应对自身的债务危机之际，对于一场隐约可见的美国财政危机的担忧正在不断发酵。

    上周，美联储（Federal Reserve）主席伯南克再次警示国会关注所谓的“财政悬崖”问题，即一系列定于明年1月1日开始实施的增税和削减开支措施（这是去年夏天就提高联邦债务上限达成的协定的组成部分）。如果国会在今年年底之前未能采取行动，经济学家和分析师普遍认为，美国经济有可能坠入另一场衰退之中。

    不用说，伯南克并非唯一一个拉响警报的人。有报道称，美国的顶级高管，包括摩根大通（JPMorgan）CEO杰米•戴蒙，贝莱德集团（Blackrock）的劳伦斯•芬克和梅西百货公司（Macy's）的特里•兰格伦，都已经敦促国会议员在今年年底之前拿出一个长期的赤字削减计划。

    但“财政悬崖”究竟指的是什么？鉴于恐惧情绪和不确定性因素肯定会影响市场，这是一个值得一问的问题。虽然另一轮衰退显然会对美国和世界其他国家带来痛苦，但“财政悬崖”鹰派的警报声是不是拉得太响了点？

    一些人就是这么想的。非党派智库预算和政策优先事项中心（Center on Budget and Policy Priorities）的首席经济学家查德•斯通表示，这种担忧不恰当。他在上周发布的一份报告中写道，当明年1月1日来临的时候，美国经济不会立刻跌落悬崖，坠入另一轮大衰退（Great Recession）之中。决策者不应急于谈判，最终仓促祭出有可能非常糟糕的政策方案，他们依然有时间（尽管非常有限）制定一项坚实的计划，进而避免经济陷入另一轮衰退。

    当然，如果议员迟迟不采取有效行动，美国将陷入衰退，斯通并不怀疑这样的前景。拟定的政策变更包括终止小布什政府期间制定的临时减税政策和奥巴马政府实施的工薪税临时削减计划。据国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）估算，如果拟定的政策调整正式生效，美国经济将在2013年上半年萎缩1.3%，将在下半年增长2.3%。

    这是非常可怕的前景。然而，美国经济需要经过一段时间才能感受到这些变化的负面影响。斯通首先以减税政策终止为例对这些影响进行了说明：诚然，美国家庭或许将感受到周薪或月薪被扣缴税收增加所带来的痛楚，“但在2012年刚刚适用于替代性最低税（Alternative Minimum Tax）的纳税人直到随后几个月进行纳税申报时才会实际支付更高的税款，”他这样写道。

    While Europe deals with its own debt woes, fears about a looming U.S. fiscal crisis are brewing.

    Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded another warning to Congress about the so-called "fiscal cliff"— a series of tax hikes and spending cuts set to kick in Jan. 1, as part of a deal struck last summer to raise the federal debt ceiling. If Congress fails to take action before the end of this year, economists and analysts widely think the U.S. economy could slip into another recession.

    Needless to say, Bernanke isn't the only one sounding the alarms. America's top executives, including JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon, Laurence Fink of Blackrock (BLK) and Terry Lundgren of Macy's (M), have reportedly urged lawmakers to come up with a long-term deficit reduction plan before the end of the year.

    But what exactly is a "fiscal cliff?" It's a question worth asking, given that fear and uncertainty certainly move markets. While another recession would obviously be painful for the U.S. and the rest of the world, could the fiscal cliff hawks be blaring their sirens a little too loudly?

    Some think so. Chad Stone, chief economist at the non-partisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, says the fears are misplaced. In a paper released last week, he wrote that the economy won't immediately fall over a cliff and plunge into another Great Recession come January 1. Rather than rush negotiations and end up with potentially very bad policy, policymakers still have some (although limited) time to come up with a solid plan and therefore avoid another downturn.

    To be sure, Stone doesn't doubt the U.S. will slip into recession if lawmakers drag their feet for too long. The slated policy changes include an end to the temporary tax cuts enacted during the George W. Bush administration, as well as an end to the temporary Obama administration payroll tax reductions. If the slated changes take effect, the economy could contract by 1.3% during the first half of 2013 and grow by 2.3% during the second half, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

    That's scary stuff. However, it will take some time before the economy feels the weight of those changes. Stone offers a few examples, starting with the tax cuts: It's true that households might feel a pinch from an increase in taxes withheld from their weekly or monthly checks, "but taxpayers newly falling within the reach of the [Alternative Minimum Tax] in 2012 will not actually pay those higher taxes until they file their returns in subsequent months," he writes.