2022谁主全球车市沉浮

下一代的汽车业蓝图

    摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的全球汽车分析师团队近日对全球汽车业的未来做了一些展望，现在就让我们看一下2022年的汽车业会是什么样子。做好准备，见证惊喜吧。

    摩根士丹利的团队采取了严格的量化分析法。首先，他们根据技术、地域覆盖、战略定位和经济实力四个标准对汽车厂商进行排名，然后根据排名推演了四种情形。分析师们相信，这四种情形将会影响汽车板块未来10年的表现。我第一次在《底特律新闻报》（Detroit News）的博客上看到这篇文章时，就觉得这是一个非常聪明的办法。

    按汽车业的划分方法来看，2022年离现在只有不到两个产品周期，动力系统与现在只隔了一代。今天正在研发的车型届时仍然还在市场上销售。至于如何界定竞争的胜负，传统的观点可能将不再适用。在摩根士丹利推演的大多数情境中，德国的大众（VW）和宝马（BMW）的得分都很高，尽管他们在本土市场上可能表现不佳。中国在10年后仍然无法像日韩厂商一样在美国获得较大突破。在所有四个情境中，通用汽车（General Motors）的得分都要高于福特（Ford），这主要归功于通用的混合动力车型，以及它在中国市场上的强劲表现。

情境一：巨头垄断

    现阶段的成功厂商凭借深厚的技术积淀（如内燃发动机技术）依然能够统治市场。汽油价格会维持在低位运行，将电动车逼入小众市场。4G技术将成为汽车的标准配置。驾驶员可以在行车时使用整合了信息娱乐系统的智能手机。随着被压抑的需求得到释放，加上新技术的引入，美国的新车年销量将达到1,800万辆（今年约为1400万辆）。而新兴市场受较高的拥堵成本和技术成本的影响，必须把发展公共交通放在首位，私家车放到次要地位。

    赢家：德国厂商更有可能获得成功，因为消费者会更加倾向于够买配置更高、口碑较好的车型。另外，通用将会超越福特，尽管福特目前在产品销售额和动力技术上要比通用更有优势。

    输家：日本厂商可能会成为输家。随着德系、美系和韩系厂商的扩张，日本厂商的空间将受到挤压。丰田（Toyota）是唯一一家排在第一阵营里的日系厂商，但就连它的得分也在通用之下。菲亚特（Fiat）的得分虽然在平均水平以下，但得益于和克莱斯勒的联姻（Chrysler），因此它的得分仍然高于标志雪铁龙（Peugeot-Citroen）。

情境二：汽车业的Facebook化

    一路飙升的油价让人们越来越难以负担开车成本。政府向电动汽车投入巨额资金支持。电池生产厂成为汽车业的主角，汽车厂商则沦为外部技术的组装者。合并和破产将成为汽车业的寻常事。产品的差异化将主要体现在续航里程和信息娱乐系统的功能。汽车的体积会变得越来越小。现代化的通讯技术使合伙用车变得更加容易，信息技术将取代钣金加工技术，成为最重要的竞争优势。

Blueprint for the next generation

    The global auto analyst team at Morgan Stanley has done some crystal ball gazing and put together a number of scenarios for how the auto industry is going to look in 2022. Get ready for some surprises.

    The approach was strictly quantitative. The Morgan team ranked automakers on four criteria: technology, geographic footprint, strategic positioning, and financial strength. Then it plotted the rankings onto four scenarios it believes will determine the future of auto stocks 10 years hence. It is clever stuff that I first read about it in Neil Winton's Detroit News blog.

    In auto terms, 2022 is less than two product cycles and one powertrain generation away. Cars being developed today will still be on sale. Conventional wisdom about winners and losers may be wrong. VW and BMW score highly in most of Morgan's scenarios, despite the disarray in their home markets. China still won't be ready to follow Japan and Korea by making a big push into the U.S. market. And General Motors outpoints Ford in all four scenarios because of its strong presence in China and production of hybrid vehicles.

Scenario one: Dinosaurs dominate

    Established companies reign with legacy technologies like the internal combustion engine. Gas prices stay low, relegating EVs to niche status. 4G technology in cars becomes standard equipment. Smartphones with integrated infotainment systems make access possible while driving. Pent-up demand and new technologies drive U.S. new car sales to 18 million annually (vs. 14 million this year). Emerging markets, squeezed by high congestion and technology costs, must prioritize mass transit over personal transportation.

    Winners: Mostly German automakers, as buyers gravitate towards higher-content, high-prestige vehicles. GM trumps Ford, despite the latter's advantages in product turnover and powertrain technology.

    Losers: The Japanese. As German, U.S., and Korean manufacturers expand, Japan gets squeezed. Toyota is the only Japanese OEM with a top ranking, and even it finishes below GM. Fiat comes in below average but still higher than Peugeot-Citroen, thanks to its tie-up with Chrysler.

cenario two: The Facebook future

    Skyrocketing fuel costs make individual vehicles unaffordable. Huge government support comes for EVs. Battery makers take the driver's seat, reducing the role of manufacturers to assemblers of outside technology. Consolidation and bankruptcy are frequent outcomes. Product differentiation is based on range and infotainment features, and volumes are lower. Modern communication makes car sharing easier, and information technology replaces metal bending as the most important competitive advantage.