林书豪转会火箭能否延续市场旋风

    林书豪在纽约尼克斯队带领苦苦挣扎的球队实现了连胜，并由此在NBA中声名鹊起，因此这次他以自由身份转会的消息无异于一枚重磅炸弹，连NBA最大的媒体市场都很难消化。同时，外界也预测，低迷的休斯顿火箭队也有望获得更大的回报。休斯顿为二年级新生林书豪开出了2,500万美元的合同。虽然林书豪拥有巨大的市场号召力，纽约却依然拒绝匹配这份“毒药合同”，因为纽约不愿在未来为其支付超过4,500万美元的奢侈税。不过，虽然这位球市新宠从东海岸转会到海湾地区，但两只当事的球队都没有实质性的损失。

    作为哈佛大学（Harvard）一名亚裔毕业生，林书豪在纽约有着非凡的经历，他崛起的方式不同于那些功成名就的球星。在替尼克斯队出战的首场比赛中，林书豪就砍下了25分，他的出色表现获得了体育营销公司的追捧，唯一能与他匹敌的，或许只有另外一名体育明星——美式足球球员蒂姆•泰伯。体育营销公司沃森曼传媒集团（Wasserman Media Group）总裁约翰•布罗迪认为：“不论是丹佛的泰伯，还是纽约的林书豪，他们的故事，影响力远远超出了体育的范畴。因为他们两个人的经历都具有变革性，而且在不到十二个月的时间里，两个人都将离开老东家，效力于不同的球队。”

    泰伯与林书豪两人都是风靡全美、并且拥有巨大市场号召力的人物，但这都不能阻止他们离开各自成名的球队。纽约尼克斯迟迟不能解决林书豪转会的问题，引起了球迷和媒体的不满。《纽约时报》（The New York Times）的奈特•希尔沃认为，尼克斯应该留住这位控卫，因为林书豪刮起的“林旋风”让球队的母公司曼迪逊广场花园公司（The Madison Square Garden Company）狂赚了数亿美元，而且只要林书豪状态稳定，未来随着球队胜场的增加，产生的经济效益足以弥补支付给林书豪的薪金。希尔沃写道：“即便林书豪成不了超级巨星，但他所带来的市场吸引力也足以弥补开支。”

    不过，对于林书豪的市场价值，目前还有待观察。《大西洋》月刊（The Atlantic）便对尼克斯和火箭队提出了警告，文章表示火箭队前一位亚洲明星姚明也只是在短期内提高了球队的净值。而《彭博商业周刊》（Bloomberg Businessweek）则报道称，林书豪带动商品销售为尼克斯队带来的利益，还比不上他用火爆表现，促使时代华纳有线（Time Warner Cable）在球队转播权问题中让步所产生的利益。

    所以，林书豪转会是否意味着，尼克斯队真的失去了一只“下金蛋的鹅”？体育营销专家认为并不尽然。NBA集中了大部分商品收入和国家电视收入，因此单一某一位球员的影响力相对而言十分有限。

    纽约大学（New York University）体育管理教授鲍勃•伯兰德在一封电子邮件中称：“实际上，现代体育的趋势就是防范这些微小的、不可控的和不可预测的改变。”对于球队来说，最关键的收入来源是那些变动更为缓慢的、长达数年的生意，比如出售体育场内广告或媒体转播权等。这种趋势可以使尼克斯队免于遭受损失，不过球迷的愤怒仍然不可避免。

    而对于休斯顿火箭队来说，获得林书豪则将为球队的市场营销带来更直接的好处。与尼克斯队一样，林书豪为球队吸引更多的球迷，或向各国球迷销售球衣，这些都不算给球队带来的直接利益。但“林疯狂”的到来却可以增加火箭队主场的场内销售和观赛人数，毕竟上个赛季，火箭队主场的上座率在全联盟垫底。体育营销专家表示，在休斯顿，林书豪的个人品牌将更倚重于他在球场上的表现。目前，林书豪已经与耐克（Nike）和沃尔沃（Volvo）签署了代言合同；此外，为了争夺亚洲市场，沃尔沃为其中国母公司增加了竞争的筹码。不过，未来林书豪的代言不见得会像百老汇演绎的那么风光。波恩斯娱乐体育市场推广公司（Burns Entertainment and Sports Marketing）董事长兼总顾问马克•埃博利多称：“如果我是一名营销人员，在考虑使用林书豪代言时，我可能会观望一下，看看这次转会的效果。”但如果林书豪保持健康，他在星光暗淡的休斯顿或许将获得更多的上场时间，也使他更有机会成为真正长盛不衰的大牌球星。

    正如《纽约邮报》（ New York Post）所说，纽约地区的第三方零售商无疑将遭到直接打击。但林书豪转会的最大输家则可能是NBA联盟本身。调查公司SportsOneSource的分析师马特•鲍威尔认为：“尼克斯队在联盟中占有重要地位。凭借其巨大的市场份额，尼克斯队甚至一直在事实上补贴夏洛特山猫队。”每次NBA推出具有吸引力的产品时，纽约都会替NBA分担绝大部分的销售量，但这些并不全是因为林书豪。鲍威尔称，去年，尼克斯队为NBA联盟创造了38%的收入，而排名第二的芝加哥公牛队的贡献只有17%。自从2011年卡梅罗•安东尼加盟尼克斯后，该队创造的收入便一直在上升。因此，NBA联盟眼下只能祈祷，林书豪的离开不会改变这个趋势，同时布鲁克林网队也能够走出低谷。

    沃森曼公司的布罗迪说道：“其实，对于NBA来说，只要林书豪能继续上场比赛，就比什么都好。”因此，NBA联盟总裁大卫•斯特尔肯定也希望“林疯狂”一路平安。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Jeremy Lin's rise to fame and resurrection of a floundering New York Knicks team was a priceless story, making his departure through free agency a lightning rod topic -- tough for the NBA's largest media market to stomach and a sign of hope for a battered Houston franchise still eyeing a larger prize. Lin's broad marketing appeal couldn't sway New York to swallow the rookie's 'poison pill' offer sheet worth $25 million -- and up to $45 million more in luxury taxes. In the transfer of marketing dollars from East Coast to the Gulf, neither team really loses.

    As an Asian-American Harvard graduate with a unique story in the spotlight of New York, Lin captured national attention in a way that seasoned stars often never do. His stellar stretch of 25 starts for the Knicks earned him cachet with sports marketers rivaled only by another athletic phenom, football player Tim Tebow. "You had Tebow in Denver and Lin in New York doing something that had such an impact outside the typical realm of sports," says John Brody, a president at sports marketing agency Wasserman Media Group. "It was about the transformative nature of their stories, but in less than twelve months, both of them will be wearing different jerseys."

    While both Tebow and Lin carried great national interest and marketing appeal, that didn't prevent them from leaving the teams where they had their respective storybook runs. In New York, the Knicks' slow decision to cut ties with Lin upset fans and journalists alike. The New York Times' Nate Silver argued the Knicks should keep the point guard because the team's parent company, The Madison Square Garden Company (MSG), gained hundreds of millions in market capitalization once Linsanity began and that Lin's salary would be justified in wins added should he play reasonably well. "Even if Lin is a merely good player, the marketing boost he provides should more than justify the expense," Silver wrote.

    That marketing value of Lin, however, is not as clear-cut. The Atlantic, in a caution to both the Knicks and Rockets, noted that the Rockets' last Asian star, Yao Ming, only improved his team's net worth in the short-term. And Bloomberg Businessweek reported that due to league revenue-sharing, Lin's boost from merchandise sales likely benefited the Knicks less than his role as an impetus for Time Warner Cable (TWC) to back down in its dispute over rights to air the team's games did.

    So did the Knicks really just lose a marketing golden goose? Sports marketing experts say not really. Given that the NBA pools most merchandising and national television revenues, no one player has the impact one might think.

    "In fact, the trend in modern sports is to guard against these small, uncontrolled and unpredictable shifts," explains Bob Boland, sports management chair at New York University, in an email. Critical revenue streams for teams come from multi-year deals that move more slowly, such as through in-stadia advertising or media rights. That trend insulates the Knicks from fallout -- with the possible exception of fan outrage.

    Houston, however, has a more immediate marketing upside in acquiring Lin. As with the Knicks, the team won't directly benefit as Lin draws larger away crowds to games or sells jerseys to fans worldwide. But he could provide a greater boost for in-stadium sales and attendance in his new home arena, as the Rockets had one of the worst attendance rates in the league last season.

    Sports marketers note that Lin's brand in Houston will now rest even heavier on his personal play. While Lin has inked deals with Nike and Volvo -- the car manufacturer has added incentive in a Chinese parent company to pursue the Asian market -- future endorsements won't have quite the same bling away from Broadway. "If I was a marketer thinking about using Jeremy, I would maybe wait and see how this plays out now," says Mark Ippolito, president and general counsel of Burns Entertainment and Sports Marketing. If Lin stays healthy, however, Houston's lack of other stars might actually allow him more time with the ball and a better shot at lasting stardom.

    As the New York Post noted, third-party retailers in the New York area will undoubtedly suffer an immediate hit. But the biggest loser as Lin's marketing power transfers west could be the NBA itself. "The Knicks are a huge deal to the league," says Matt Powell, an analyst at SportsOneSource. "With their market share, the Knicks are essentially subsidizing the Charlotte Bobcats."

    New York carries an outsized share of the load for the NBA when it offers a compelling product -- but that doesn't just depend on Lin. According to Powell, the Knicks drove 38 percent of the market share of league revenue last year, compared to just 17 percent for the next-best Chicago Bulls. New York's numbers have been up since Carmelo Anthony joined the team in 2011. The league will have to hope that Lin's departure doesn't reverse that trend, and that the Brooklyn Nets pick up some of the slack.

    "Fact is, the NBA is better off with Jeremy Lin playing than not playing at all," says Brody at Wasserman. Still, commissioner David Stern must hope that Linsanity travels well.