近场通讯技术挑不起无现金社会大梁

    哪种技术将推动我们进入一个无现金的、由移动支付驱动的世界？对一些先驱型公司而言，这还是一个未知数。

    日前《财富》杂志（Fortune）在科罗拉多州阿斯彭举办了科技头脑风暴大会（Brainstorm Tech conference）。大会期间的移动支付的座谈会上，一些市场参与者猛烈抨击近场无线通讯技术（near field communication, NFC），尽管不少人将这种技术视为无现金革命的驱动因素。众所周知，贝宝（PayPal）的东家易趣（Ebay）已经有意回避这项通过轻敲手机进行手机支付的技术。（在今年早些时候的一场《财富》活动上，该公司首席执行官约翰•多纳霍表示，进场无线通讯技术绝对不适合用于商业。）

    虽然与会者承认这项炙手可热的技术将占有一席之地，但没人认为它将成为移动支付市场的基石。支付公司Boku一直在与运营商们直接打交道，其联合创始人兼总裁罗恩•希尔森称：“近场无线通讯技术只是解决方案的一部分。”前易趣雇员、现互联网贷款服务Prosper公司首席执行官汤恩•莱伯瑞则认为市场将变得更加分化：“这项技术并不是支付的全球性标准。我认为移动支付市场不会是赢家通吃，而将是百花齐放。”

    尽管如此，最近人们对近场通讯技术信心大增，有传言称苹果（Apple）下一款iPhone将包含这项技术。希尔森承认，如果技术巨头苹果也参与其中——他本人认为这样的情况要好几年后才有可能出现——所有致力于这项技术的公司将面对一个劲敌。“苹果向来以伺机而动、随后一击即中著称。”

    但同时，移动支付服务商Square这样的公司仍在不断进军小型商家市场。他们将遇到的竞争只会稍微多一点。

    金融技术公司NCR——目前其最为人熟知的业务是制造自动取款机——今天推出了NCR Silver，能将iPad变成一台销售终端设备。这家公司目前只在美国推出了这项业务，但计划于明年登陆中国、巴西和英国市场。公司首席执行官比尔•诺迪对于涉足这个充满移动设备、尚无固定标准的领域并不盲目自负。他说：“我们不自大。相反，我们非常谦虚。”

    译者：项航

    What kind of technology will propel us toward a cashless, mobile payment-driven world? For a few of the companies leading the way, the answer is as uncertain as ever.

    Speaking on panel about mobile payments during Fortune's Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colorado, some of the players in that market denounced near field communication -- the technology that some have heralded as the driver of the cashless revolution. EBay (EBAY), which owns PayPal, has already famously shunned the technology, which allows mobile phones to make transactions by tapping on them. (At a Fortune event earlier this year, CEO John Donahoe said NFC stands for "not for commerce.")

    While panelists acknowledged the role that the buzzy technology would have, none thought it would be a cornerstone for the market. "It's part of the solution," said Ron Hirson, co-founder and president of Boku, a payment company that deals directly with carriers. "It's not a global standard for payments." Dawn Lepore, a former eBay employee and now CEO of Internet loan service Prosper, says the market will be much more segmented. "I don't think it's winner take all," she said. "There will be multiple successes."

    Still, faith in NFC has gotten a boast recently, with rumors that Apple's (AAPL) next iPhone will include that technology. Hirson conceded that if the tech giant gets into the game -- which he thinks won't be for years -- all of the players have a fierce competitor. "Apple is notorious for waiting to do something, then doing it right."

    But in the meantime, companies like Square continue to tackle the market for small merchants. They just got a little more competition.

    The financial technology company NCR -- currently most well-known for manufacturing ATMs -- today launched NCR Silver, which turns an iPad into a point-of-sales device. The company is launching for now only in the United States, but plans to be in China, Brazil and the United Kingdom next year. But CEO Bill Nuti is not arrogant about jumping into a space that is rife with moving parts and has no set standard. "We're not overconfident," he said. "We're very humble."