麦当劳利润下滑之谜

    过去大约十年中，总部位于伊利诺伊州奥克布鲁克的麦当劳一直享有巨大成功。即使在金融危机之后的年代里，即使严峻的经济形势让美国消费者不堪重荷，麦当劳也很少让投资者失望。2011年，它的营收超过了270亿美元，远高于2010年的240亿美元。就如《财富》杂志（Fortune ）去年夏天的专题报道所述，麦当劳市场定位良好，旱涝保收，因为人总是要吃饭的。

    但眼下，麦当劳的金色拱门（麦当劳的标识——译注）出人意料地黯淡下来。该公司周一宣布，相比于去年同期的14.1亿美元（合每股1.35美元），上季度的净利润跌到了13.5亿美元（合每股1.32美元），跌幅达4.5%。而华尔街分析师预期每股盈利1.37美元。

    导致盈利不及目标的原因很多：美元坚挺削弱了海外盈利；食物价格上涨蚕食了利润；此外，海外劳动成本上升也是一个因素。公司还专门提到消费者的影响：“我们看到在更多的市场，消费者信心都出现了问题，”首席执行官唐•汤普森在电话会议中告诉分析师。“不只是欧洲经济得了感冒。”

    毫无疑问，不断恶化的欧债危机以及增长乏力的美国经济都打击了消费者的信心。而对中国和印度经济增长放缓的预期只会火上浇油。

    高管们当然愿意尽可能地讨论全球经济的整体疲软，我们还是要仔细考察来自公司总部的商业运作问题。美国银行（Bank of America）的分析师注意到，公司难以跟上竞争对手的步伐。麦当劳利润下滑的同时，其它快餐连锁店，包括汉堡王（Burger King）和塔可钟（Taco Bell）的生意都在恢复。而像Sonic和Jack in the Box这样的区域性连锁店也在最近几个季度销量大增。

    自从2002年以来，麦当劳确实实现了漂亮的转型，但近些年来公司逐步偏离了核心的汉堡和薯条业务，而那些食品正是让顾客去而复返的原因。新近的盈利报告就反映了这个问题。

    《财富》杂志撰稿人霍华德•彭尼是投资研究公司Hedgeye的餐饮业分析师，他建议我们看看一元菜单的变化。随着食品成本的上涨，麦当劳公司高层在3月份宣布，在一元菜单中用现烤饼干和冰激凌甜筒取代小份饮料和薯条。公司同时还推出了超值菜单，其中包括20块麦乐鸡、双层芝士堡、鸡肉卷、牛肉卷、中杯冰咖啡和小杯麦旋风（参见《财富》3月份的报道“麦当劳的新菜单无关超值，只见通胀”）。

    回头来看，这些改变并不明智。一元菜单历史悠久，低廉的价格适合不景气的经济，现在把最受欢迎的食物从中剔除似乎不合常理，甚至可以说有点不公平。

    彭尼说：“这样做等于告诉一部分顾客，他们已经不再受（麦当劳）欢迎了。”

    最新的季报似乎说明麦当劳未能成功地向量入为出的美国人推销新的菜单。开通至少13个月的连锁店的销售额是重要的经营业绩指标，在6月30日结束的季度中，这个数据仅上涨了3.6%，为5个季度以来的最低增速。

    彭尼在去年一月份就曾警告说，麦当劳在饮品方面过度扩张。虽然公司对精品咖啡（售价较高）的关注带来了可观的利润，但由于操作的复杂性，回报不见得很高。彭尼指出：“制作一杯拿铁当然比倒可乐要慢。”

    麦当劳的女发言人称，美国市场新增的McCafe饮品和其经典核心热卖食品一样，为公司利润做出贡献。至于超值菜单，公司认为那是“在一元菜单的热卖食品基础上打造的实惠餐饮选项。”

    杰富瑞投行（Jefferies & Company）的资深股票分析师安迪•巴里什则认为，麦当劳面临的大部分下行压力是其自身无法控制的。他说：“公司的业务运营仍然良好，只是现在行业正处在正常化过程中。”这里的正常化是指竞争对手只不过在效仿麦当劳的做法，并开始取得成功。

    不过巴里什也在想，麦当劳是不是应该另辟蹊径了。“公司一直在走老路，没什么变化。顾客也想试试新口味了吧。”

    For nearly a decade, McDonald's has been wildly successful. Even in the years following the financial crisis when tough economic times weighed on U.S. consumers, the Oak Brook, Il-based fast food hamburger chain rarely let investors down. In 2011, it generated revenue topping $27 billion, higher than the $24 billion it posted the previous year. And as Fortune featured last summer, McDonald's is well positioned, since consumers tend to eat there in good and bad times.

    But the chain's golden arches have unexpectedly dimmed. Net income fell 4.5% to $1.35 billion or $1.32 a share during its most recent quarter, from $1.41 billion or $1.35 a year earlier, McDonald's reported Monday. Wall Street analysts had expected earnings of $1.37 per share.

    Various factors led to the profit miss: A sharply strong dollar that cut profits; high food prices gnawed on margins; high labor costs abroad. In particular, the chain broadly blamed consumers: "We're seeing more markets that are having consumer confidence issues," CEO Don Thompson said in a conference call with analysts. "It's a little more than a European cold, if you would."

    No doubt Europe's worsening debt crisis combined with a sluggish U.S. economy have dampened consumer confidence. And expectations of a slower growing China and India, among other economies, don't help ease investor worries.

    But as much as executives focus on general economic weaknesses across the globe, business moves within McDonald's (MCD) headquarters deserve a closer look. The chain has struggled to keep up with competitors, Bank of America analysts have noted. As McDonald's sees softer earnings, other fast-food rivals, including Burger King (BKW) and Taco Bell (YUM) have, enjoyed a rebound in sales. Regional chains, such as Sonic (SONC) and Jack in the Box (JACK), have also enjoyed stronger sales in recent quarters.

    But as much as executives focus on general economic weaknesses across the globe, business moves within McDonald's (MCD) headquarters deserve a closer look. The chain has struggled to keep up with competitors, Bank of America analysts have noted. As McDonald's sees softer earnings, other fast-food rivals, including Burger King (BKW) and Taco Bell (YUM) have, enjoyed a rebound in sales. Regional chains, such as Sonic (SONC) and Jack in the Box (JACK), have also enjoyed stronger sales in recent quarters.

    Take McDonald's Dollar Menu, says Howard Penney, restaurant industry analyst with the investment research firm Hedgeye and a Fortune contributor. In March, amid higher food costs, executives announced it was removing small drinks and small French fries from its Dollar Menu, replacing those items with fresh baked cookies and ice cream cones. The chain also launched its extra-value menu, which included, among other items, 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, Angus snack wraps, medium iced coffees and snack-sized McFlurries. (See McDonald's new menu is about inflation more than value)

    Looking back, the move probably wasn't the wisest. The Dollar Menu had been around for years. And it seemed counterintuitive (arguably, perhaps even a little unjust) to take one of the most popular items off its recession-friendly menu.

    "You're basically telling a set of customers you don't want them anymore," Penney says.

    The latest quarter suggests McDonald's has struggled to upsell the new menu to budget-conscious Americans. Sales at stores open at least 13 months in the U.S., a key measure of business performance, rose 3.6% during the quarter that ended June 30, the slowest growth in five quarters.

    McDonald's has also expanded too much into beverages, Penney warned in January 2011. While the chain's focus in specialty coffees (sold at relatively higher prices) has given it considerable success, the returns are uncertain because the operations are more complex. "It takes more to make a latte than to pour a Coke," he said.

    A McDonald's spokeswoman says the chain's classic core favorites, as well as new additions to the McCafe beverages in the U.S. have added to the company's performance. And as far as its extra value menu, the company says it "builds on the Dollar Menu favorites by offering affordable meal options."

    Andy Barish, senior equities analyst at Jefferies & Company, says much of the downward pressures that McDonald's faces are beyond its control. "They're still running the business really well but things are normalizing," says Barish, pointing out that rivals have followed McDonald's playbook to plant the seeds of their own successes.

    He wonders, however, if it might be time for McDonald's to do something markedly different. "It has been doing the same old thing; they haven't done much. Maybe customers are getting a little tired of the same old thing?"