快乐套餐为何不快乐

    你真的希望配炸薯条吗？近期，NPD集团的一项调查显示，消费者很可能会有气无力地回答你：“可能吧！”。

    过去五年，作为快餐主打产品的套餐销量比前一个五年减少了12%。截至2012年1月的5年内，套餐点餐总数从90亿份减少的到80亿份，减少了10亿份。现在，许多问题都可以用经济低迷来解释，而套餐购买量减少却是少数几个例外之一。虽然高失业率、尤其是18 – 34岁人群的高失业率确实对销量低迷产生了一定影响，毕竟18 – 34岁人群是套餐消费的主力军，但它并不是造成这种变化的主要推动因素。

    NPD餐厅分析师及报告作者邦尼•里格斯认为：“经济压力确实是套餐销量减少的原因之一，但最关键的原因非常清楚——消费者希望套餐中能够提供更多选择。”

    里格斯表示，快餐店可以在套餐中加入沙拉和不同类型的饮料来安抚食客。比如，温蒂汉堡（Wendy's）已经开始尝试新套餐菜单，在价格不变的情况下，可以用附餐沙拉和低脂酸奶等更健康的选择来代替炸薯条。而汉堡王（Burger King）则根据消费者点的配餐修改了套餐价格。麦当劳只提供开心乐园餐的替代配餐，很少提供可选饮料，而且各连锁店的规定也各不相同。

    温蒂汉堡发言人丹尼•林奇称，实际上，温蒂汉堡20%至25%的套餐顾客会选择自选套餐。他说，虽然菜单的改变并不是推动销售额增加的唯一因素，但消费者对调整菜单的反馈却非常积极。

    雷蒙德•詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）分析师布莱恩•埃利奥特认为，温蒂汉堡独具特色的套餐菜单源自这家连锁店早期留下的宝贵“遗产”——更精致、更健康的配餐。

    当前，快餐行业利润空间不断收缩，而食品采购与制作的成本却在攀升，在这样的大形势下，预计温蒂汉堡的竞争对手也将采取类似的策略。

    WD Partners餐饮顾问公司咨询师丹尼斯•隆巴迪对NPD的说法并不认同。他认为，经济状况在套餐销量下降中发挥的影响比NPD所说的要大。隆巴迪认为套餐销量减少是2008年经济危机爆发以来产生的“杠铃效应”的一部分。这种观点认为，在经济低迷时期，一个行业中只有最昂贵和最实惠的产品才能存活。拿快餐行业来说，麦当劳的一美元菜单和布法罗鸡翅烧烤吧（Buffalo Wild Wings）等休闲餐厅的表现都非常出色，但介于两者之间的产品，比如套餐，销量却出现了缩水。

    对于已经陷入困境的快餐行业来说，套餐销量受挫更是让其雪上加霜。最近，麦当劳的季度收入低于分析师预期，而过去一年，百胜餐饮集团（Yum Brand）旗下的美国肯德基特许经营店数量也在减少。NPD集团近期调低了对快餐行业的增长预期，并预测2012年快餐行业增长幅度将低于1%，而在2013年还将大幅下降。

    套餐是餐饮行业的主打产品，在快餐汉堡店的午餐和晚餐中，47%的顾客会选择套餐。而且，套餐也是赛百味（Subway）和Arby’s等三明治连锁店的重要收入来源，给它们带来了16%的顾客。

    但套餐并不是唯一一种陷入困境的快餐业务。NPD的数据显示，2011年，儿童餐的销量也减少了6%。

    但套餐对餐厅具有重要的价值，不可能因为销量减少便将它扔到垃圾桶里。里格斯认为：“套餐产品不会消失，因为它们非常重要。但问题在于，如何才能阻止套餐销量的下滑，让套餐重新恢复增长势头？”

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Do you really want fries with that? A recent NPD Group study suggests that your answer is likely a weak maybe.

    In the past five years, combo meal sales, a staple of the fast food menu, have decreased by 12% compared to the previous five-year period. Total combo meal orders declined by a billion over a five-year period ending in January 2012, from nine to eight billion orders.

    The dip in orders is that rare piece of bad business news that companies may not be able to explain away by citing the struggling economy. While factors like higher unemployment certainly have played a role in the depressed sales -- particularly among 18-34 year olds, a group that makes up the majority of combo meal patrons -- it wasn't the primary driver behind this shift.

    "While economic pressures are apart of [the decrease in combo meal sales], it came out loud and clear that the customer wants more options in the combo meal," says, Bonnie Riggs, NPD restaurant analyst and author of the report.

    Fast food restaurants could appease customers by offering salads and different types of drinks with their combo meals, Riggs says. Some chains like Wendy's (WEN) are already experimenting with their combo meal menu, offering healthier options like a side salad and low fat yogurt in lieu of French fries for no difference in price. Burger King (BKW) changes its prices based on what sides you order. And McDonald's (MCD) only offers swappable sides for their Happy Meals, and drink swaps are fairly rare and vary from franchise to franchise.

    Indeed, 20 to 25% of Wendy's combo meal customers opt for the customizable meals, according to company spokesperson Denny Lynch. Customer feedback has been positive, he says, although it's not the only factor driving sales.

    Wendy's unique combo menu stems from the fact that their smaller, healthier sides are "legacy items" from the chain's early days, says Raymond James analyst Bryan Elliot.

    Expect Wendy's rivals to implement similar strategies, within the bounds of tightening profit margins in the industry amid the rising cost of food sourcing and production.

    WD Partners food industry consultant Dennis Lombardi thinks that the sag in combo meal sales has more to do with the economy than what the NPD reports suggests. Lombardi sees the drop as a part of a "barbell effect" that has taken hold since the 2008 recession. The idea is that in tough economic times, the most and least expensive products in an industry thrive. In the case of the fast food industry, the McDonalds' Dollar Menu and fast casual restaurants like Buffalo Wild Wings have done well, while sales of offerings in between -- like combo meals -- have been squeezed, he says.

    Tough times for combo meals comes as especially unwelcome news for an already struggling fast food industry. McDonalds' quarterly earnings recently undershot analyst's expectations, and Yum Brand's American KFC franchises have been contracting in the past year. The NPD group recently decreased its growth expectations for the fast food industry, predicting less than 1% growth in 2012 and contraction in 2013.

    Combo meals are a staple in the restaurant industry, accounting for 47% of lunch and dinner visits to fast food hamburger joints. And they also represent an important source of revenue for sandwich shops like Subway and Arby's, driving 16% of visits to these restaurants.

    Combos aren't the only fast food deal that has fallen on hard times. According to NPD data, kid's meal sales saw a 6% drop in 2011.

    Combo meals, however, are too valuable to restaurants for the dip in sales to send them into the fast food dustbin. "[Combo meals] aren't going to go away; they're so important," Riggs says, "The question is, how do we stop them from declining and get them growing again?"