移动市场几家欢乐几家愁

    如今人们似乎都在谈论移动市场。可供消费者选择的智能手机和平板电脑日益增多。然而，对制造商们而言，这并不是件轻松的事。

    有苹果（Apple）这样的赢家，但也有诺基亚（Nokia）这样的输家。有谷歌（Google）Android这样蓬勃发展的操作系统，但也有塞班（Symbian）这样穷途末路的系统。换言之，几家欢喜几家愁。这一点在智能手机市场表现得格外明显。

    让我们回到5月，调研公司Asymco发布了一份报告，总结了智能手机市场从2007年第二季度到目前为止的盈利情况。Asymco的发现令人震惊，去年第四季度，整个智能手机市场的运营利润为144亿美元，苹果一家就占据了其中的73%，其主要竞争对手三星（Samsung）则占据了26%。剩下1%——仅仅只有1.44亿美元被宏达电（HTC）拿走。

    2007年的情况则大不一样：诺基亚占据了一半多的运营利润。黑莓手机生产商RIM、LG和索尼爱立信（Sony Ericsson）的表现也相当不错。不过，这些公司如今都已经深陷泥潭。

    诺基亚的衰落尤为让人担忧。2008年，这家手机巨头取得了507亿美元营收，利润40亿美元。去年，诺基亚营收降至387亿美元，亏损12亿美元。今年第二季度，诺基亚又亏损了10亿美元。与此同时，苹果仍在快速增长。在截至7月30日的公司第三财季，苹果共售出了2,600万部iPhone。iPhone及其相关业务取得了162亿美元营收，占据了苹果季度总营收350亿美元的将近一半。

    不过，苹果的表现不仅仅在智能手机。

    调研机构IDC的数据指出，去年，苹果iPad的出货量超过4,000万部，占据了平板电脑市场58%的份额。所有几十种Android设备加起来也只占据了38.7%的市场份额，出货量约为2,700万部。让我们用数字说话：苹果宣布在截至7月30日的第三财季共计售出1,700万iPad。

    去年末，当亚马逊（Amazon）Kindle Fire大卖特卖时，人们相信它能真正威胁到iPad。不过，投资公司Cowen的分析师凯文•柯普曼指出，亚马逊Kindle Fire在今年的出货量或将仅有1,200万部。同时，我们不要忘了其它数不胜数的平板电脑，其中就包括三星自家的盖世（Galaxy）平板系列，它们对iPad的进攻最终都以失败而告终。

    移动领域由盛及衰的分水岭之说甚至可以延伸到移动广告领域。谷歌AdMob虽然进展缓慢，但其一统移动广告市场的趋势愈加明显。去年12月，IDC报告指出，谷歌在移动广告市场份额从2010年19%上升到了2011年的24%。苹果的iAd被看作是AdMob最有可能的竞争对手，但是依然眼睁睁地看着自己的市场份额从2010年的19%下降到了2011年的15%。

    苹果的广告平台现在并没有完全失败。不过，在移动领域，至少从过去几年看，任何重大滑坡都会给该公司带来麻烦。

    移动领域的新常态似乎也在渗入移动游戏市场。Rovio制作了世界最流行的手机游戏《愤怒的小鸟》。该公司在5月份时公布了上个财年财报，营收1.063亿美元，利润6,760万美元。虽然游戏已成为移动市场非常流行的元素，而且许多开发者也已在这个领域赚到不少真金白银，但Rovio显然仍牢牢占据移动游戏头把交椅。每当它发布一款游戏更新或一款新的小鸟游戏后，用户们都会蜂拥而至。此情此景唯Rovio一家，其它手机游戏开发者只能在梦里憧憬一番。

    曾经，仅有几家公司在移动市场竞争，而且其中很多公司都获得了回报。然而现在，这个市场中的公司数量多了不少，但却只有少数几家公司成功。因此，一些公司可能会产生疑问：为什么要往比以往任何时候都更有可能失败的产品上砸钱。这确实是个好问题。

    译者：项航

    The mobile market seems to be all anybody ever talks about these days. Consumers have more smartphones and tablets to choose from every day. For the vendors, however, it's not all fun and games.

    For every Apple (AAPL), there is a Nokia (NOK). And for every Google (GOOG) Android, there's a Symbian. There are, in other words, haves and have-nots. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the smartphone market.

    Back in May, research firm Asymco released astudy it conducted on smartphone market operating profits spanning the second quarter of 2007 to now. And what the company found was shocking: Out of the $14.4 billion in operating profits generated in the fourth quarter, Apple made 73% of them. Samsung, its chief competitor, nabbed 26%. The remaining 1% -- a mere $144 million -- went to HTC.

    It was a much different story back in 2007, when Nokia owned well over half of the smartphone market's operating profits. RIM (RIMM), LG, and Sony Ericsson (SNE) were also doing well. Now, they've lost it all.

    Nokia's decline is especially troubling. In 2008, the handset vendor generated $4 billion in profits on $50.7 billion in revenue. Last year, it took a $1.2 billion loss on $38.7 billion in revenue. During the second quarter alone, the company lost another $1 billion. Apple, meanwhile, continues to climb. During its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, Apple sold 26 million iPhones. The iPhone and its related services generated $16.2 billion during the period, accounting for nearly half of Apple's $35 billion of revenue.

    But it's not just smartphones.

    Last year, Apple shipped over 40 million iPads, earning the company 58% market share in the tablet space, according to data from research firm IDC. All of the Android-based devices -- dozens, in total -- were only able to secure 38.7% of the market on about 27 million shipped units. To put that figure into perspective, Apple announced recently that it sold 17 million iPads during the three-month period ended June 30.

    Late last year, when the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle Fire was selling well, it was believed that it could be a credible iPad threat. But according to Cowen analyst Kevin Kopelman, Amazon will sell only 12 million Kindle Fire units this year. And let's not forget about the countless other tablets, including Samsung's own Galaxy Tab line, that have tried to take down Apple's iPad to no avail.

    The great divide between the haves and have-nots in the mobile space can even extend to mobile advertising, where Google's AdMob is slowly but surely starting to pull away. In December, research firm IDC reported that Google's mobile ad market share rose from 19% in 2010 to 24% in 2011. Apple's iAd, which was largely viewed as a possible contender to AdMob, watched its share fall from 19% in 2010 to 15% last year.

    Apple's platform isn't down and out just yet. But any notable decline in the mobile space, at least in the last few years, has spelled trouble for the company on the wrong side of things.

    The new normal in the mobile space also appears to be infiltrating the mobile-gaming market. Rovio, maker of the world's most popular mobile game, Angry Birds, reported in May that it generated $106.3 million in revenue and a profit of $67.6 million on its franchise last year. Although games have proven extremely popular in the mobile market and other developers have made some cash with their creations, Rovio has emerged as the dominant force in mobile gaming. Whenever it launches an update to its games or a new title, consumers take notice. That's unique and only a dream for most mobile developers.

    There was a time when a few companies were competing in the mobile market, and many of them were reaping the rewards. Now, many more firms are in that space, and just a handful are succeeding. It might be enough to make some companies question why they should spend cash on products that have a higher likelihood than ever of failing. A good question indeed.