共和党副总统候选人保罗•瑞安印象

    2010年2月末，我第一次遇见保罗•瑞安时，是在众议院朗沃斯办公大楼（Longworth House Office Building）里他的办公室。那是一个严寒的周三晚上，接待区的酒红色地毯略显磨损，放置于此的巨大楔形奶酪模型象征着威斯康星州的骄傲。这位众议员没穿外套，更显得竹竿般消瘦，一只笔夹在脑后，大红领带歪在一边。那天他的日程比平日更为繁忙，因为要准备次日在布莱尔宫（Blair House）举行的健保政策辩论。后来我们都知道就在这次著名的辩论中，这位籍籍无名、有点书卷气的议员和奥巴马总统正面交锋，从而一举登上全国的政治舞台。

    我们约定共进晚餐，瑞安说他会挑选一家脚程之内的餐馆。漫步下山的时候，瑞安依然没穿外套。他自豪地说：“我可是威斯康星人！”（威斯康星州冬季气候严寒——译注）我们来到一家泰式餐馆，红绿霓虹灯箱闪烁着“正在营业”的字样，里面装修简朴，只有胶合板餐桌、塑料椅子和霓虹灯。食客不多，瑞安和其中一人打招呼，那就是时任众议院牧师的丹尼尔考夫林神父，瑞安常常参加他主持的早祷告。瑞安吃的很简单，就是“槟城咖哩”和自来水而已。我想请客，瑞安坚持说接受记者的宴请就是违反联邦法律，哪怕再便宜也不行，最后他自己付了15美元现金。

    这顿简单的晚餐只是一个开始，在接下来的三年中，我有机会和瑞安进行了某种形式的流动政策研讨。那次去泰餐厅之后接下来的两天，我们的讨论地点就是他狭小的办公室，瑞安就在那里研读政策文件直到接近半夜。他睡觉的地方通常就是一张折叠床，偶尔他也会在贝塞斯达（华盛顿特区的居住郊区——译注）的姐姐家暂住，不过条件更差：“我睡在地下室靠墙的床垫上，脚都要伸出床尾。”说话的时候是布莱尔宫辩论的第二天早上，我在众议院大厅碰到瑞安，其时他刚接受完电视采访，大口吃着酸奶和草莓，正准备像每个周五早上一样回到威斯康星州简斯维尔的家中。直到几周之前我还常常和瑞安通话，打通手机时，有时他正在给他在简斯维尔的维多利亚式房子安装干墙，有时在观看女儿的足球赛。我们聊的话题非常广泛，比如是否美国也必然步欧洲后尘开征增值税，或者是他的大胆医改计划的细节，该计划将使得消费者可以“拥有”自己的医疗保险，而不是像现在那样主要通过雇主提供。

    通过这些接触，瑞安留给我的最重要印象就是，他是一个有着强烈使命感的知识分子，这两种特质的结合在政界非常罕见。他相信小政府，相信为实现个人潜能而给予个人最大自由是道德正确的必然选择，而就创造机会来培养那种潜能而言，那也是最有效率和活力的体系。

    对瑞安来说，道德愿景和增长预期都指向了同一条道路，一条远离我们目前路线的道路。不管你怎么看待他的想法，他的政府理念始终如一。即使他的批评者也承认，瑞安决不是见风使舵的策略家，也不是走中间路线的折中主义者，而是真正的政治斗士。让他远远超越一般自由市场说客的是，他精通预算计划，也愿意提出非常明确和具体的解决方案。由于严峻的预算形势，两党都无法再忽视具体数字。为了避免新一轮的金融危机，瑞安的想法和他已经提出数年、但却始终默默无闻的方案终于被看作是可以考虑的选项。

    关于联邦医疗保险计划（Medicare）的大胆设想和其它福利改革到底会如何改变罗姆尼-瑞安搭档的命运，一切还不可预知。我在本文讨论的政策也只是瑞安作为众议员时所提倡的政策，并不是他现在做为副总统候选人会支持的，或者被允许支持的。即使如此，我们的对话还是让我了解了近年来在经济政策上最有影响力的人物之一。

    瑞安在我们的谈话中很享受关于福利的争论，在到目前为止的竞选活动中依然如此。“因为我支持福利改革，我成了明显的靶子，”他在2010年的泰式晚餐中告诉我。“但我很高兴受到攻击，这样一来大家都会关注这个问题。我并不需要这么做，但我已经坚持12年了，我才不管那些满嘴‘别碰福利！’的人。”

    瑞安在2010年中期选举之前的一次谈话中发表了一番胜利宣言，也许预示了他在这场总统选举中的策略。“人们总是说，这次选举就是对失败领导的全民公决，我们毫无疑问会获胜，”瑞安说。“别冒险，别提出太大胆的想法。但政客们低估了美国人民的基本数学能力。”

    瑞安在另一次谈话中说，如果在选举后才向公众推出福利改革，而不是在选举中大力推进，不可能获得成功。他举出小布什总统失败的社保改革作为例子。他认为选民需要听取各方面的论点，只有这样，当他们选择了瑞安这类候选人时，也就意味着他们明显倾向于改革，他们就会对大胆举措有一定的心理准备，从而在引入相关法案时积极接受。

    I first met Paul Ryan at his office in the Longworth House Office Building on a frigid evening Wednesday in late February 2010. The reception area featured frayed burgundy carpeting and the model of a giant cheese wedge, saluting Wisconsin's prized product. The reed-thin Congressman appeared coatless with a pen behind his ear, his bright red tie askew. His schedule was even more frenzied than usual, since he was prepping for a debate on health care policy the next day at Blair House -- a session that produced the now-famous clash between Ryan and President Obama, and elevated the wonkish, still little-known legislator to the national stage.

    So we were meeting for dinner, and Ryan said he'd picked a restaurant we could walk to. We strolled downhill -- Ryan still sans jacket, declaring "I'm from Wisconsin!"-- to a Thai eatery with a red-and-green neon sign flashing "Open." The décor included Formica tables, plastic chairs, and neon lighting. Ryan greeted a scarce fellow diner, Father Daniel Coughlin, then chaplain of the House, whose early-morning services Ryan frequently attended. The Congressman dined on "Penang curry" and tap water. When I offered to pay the bill for both of us, Ryan insisted that accepting even a meal, no matter how cheap, from a journalist violated federal rules, and settled his own tab around of $15 in cash.

    That unglamorous dinner began a kind of moveable policy feast that I enjoyed with Ryan over the next three years. Our discussions during the two days following our trip to the Thai restaurant moved to his cramped office, where Ryan studied policy papers until 11:30PM and regularly slept on a cot, but not always. The legislator told me he also crashed at his sister's house in Bethesda, where he suffered even more discomfort -- "I sleep on a mattress propped against the wall in the basement, but my feet hang over the ends." I caught the legislator the morning after the Blair House confrontation in the House Rotunda after at TV interview, downing yogurt and strawberries, poised to head home to Janesville, Wisconsin, as he did every Friday morning. I also frequently spoke to Ryan until just a few weeks ago, reaching him by cellphone installing drywall at his Victorian house in Janesville or camped at his daughter's soccer games, on topics as diverse as the whether America is destined for a European-style VAT and the details of his bold plan to enable consumers to "own" the health insurance coverage they now receive mainly through employers.

    Through all of these encounters, my overriding impression of Ryan was that of an intellectual with a passionate sense of mission––a highly unusual combination in politics. He believes in small government from the viewpoint that it's morally right in granting individuals the fullest freedom to recognize their potential, and that it's the most efficient, dynamic system for creating the opportunity to nourish that potential.

    For Ryan, the moral vision and the growth projections point the same way––away from our current path. Whatever you think of his ideas, he presents a consistent philosophy of government. Ryan, even his critics concede, isn't a tactician or triangulator, but a political crusader. What makes him far more than a free-market proselytizer is his mastery of budget math, and his willingness to propose highly specific, concrete solutions. Because the math is now far too dangerous for either party to ignore, Ryan's ideas, solutions he's proposed in obscurity for years, are finally being debated as the alternative to a financial crisis.

    Whether the bold details on Medicare and other entitlement reform sink or lift the Romney-Ryan ticket is still unknown. The policies I discuss here were the ones Ryan advocated as a Congressman, not necessarily the ones he backs, or will be allowed to back, as a candidate for Vice President. Still, our talks give a view into one of the most influential thinkers on economic policy in recent memory.

    In our conversations, Ryan relished the battle over entitlements, and thus far in the campaign, still does. "Because I'm for entitlement reform, I'm an easy target," he told me during our Thai dinner in 2010. "But I'm glad they're hitting me. It brings the debate to the fore. I don't have to do this, but I've been doing it for 12 years, while everyone's been saying, 'Don't attack entitlements!'"

    In a conversation just before the mid-term elections in 2010, Ryan presented a manifesto for victory that foreshadowed his approach to this presidential race. "People are saying, make this a referendum on failed leadership, win by default," said Ryan. "Don't present bold ideas. But the politicians are misunderstanding the ability of Americans to do basic math."

    In another talk, Ryan argued that entitlement reform is virtually impossible if it's sprung on the public after an election, without being championed in the campaign. He cited President George W. Bush's failure to fix Social Security. Voters, he argued, need to hear all the arguments so that when they choose a Ryan-like candidate, they're making a clear choice for reform -- they expect bold measures and embrace the legislation when it's introduced.