杨元庆：联想不怕iPad

    在这个对PC的未来忧心忡忡的行业里，联想公司（Lenovo）却不急不躁，十分笃定。

    上周，这家中国的PC厂商又发布了一份漂亮的季度财报，营收与利润双双大幅增长——甚至在PC销售下降的市场也是如此。现在，联想几乎快要赶上其最大的竞争对手惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard），登上世界头号个人电脑厂商的宝座了。而当业内众多公司正为疲软的全球PC市场和平板电脑的崛起烦恼时，联想的PC业绩却保持着高歌猛进的态势。联想公司总裁兼首席执行官杨元庆在接受《财富》杂志（Fortune）专访时称：“平板电脑是很出色的创新产品，也是对传统PC很好的补充。有人说平板电脑将吞噬PC。我不这么认为。”

    那么他的观点是什么呢？消费者将向高端大屏幕电脑和智能手机转移，而平板电脑将作为一种重要的细分产品而存在。联想甚至为即将到来的计算时代起了个雅号：“PC+”时代。

    已有无数人对日新月异的电脑行业进行过预测，杨元庆是其中之一。过去三年间，他的公司已证明，联想比大多数公司都能更好地预测未来。据市场研究公司IDC的数据，2009年，联想在全球市场的份额是9%，经过几年飞速发展，今年这一份额已增至15%，几乎与惠普的15.7%旗鼓相当。联想称，上一季度其PC出货量增长了24%，而全行业则下降了2%。

    这些似乎不太现实的大幅增长主要来自于服务水平较低的市场的销售增长。比如，上一季度联想在中国的市场份额达到了创纪录的35%。而与美国这样的PC拥有率接近100%的国家相比，中国的PC拥有率只有美国的约五分之一。联想一直专注于拓展中国农村和中小城市地区，这些地方的PC拥有率尤为低下。在全中国它拥有超过3万家特许经销店。相比之下，以城市为战略中心的苹果公司（Apple）在中国只有6家专卖店。联想在中国的销售网络堪称无孔不入，在卡车运输不方便的地方，联想有时候会用自行车运送产品——杨元庆说，有时甚至还会用驴来驮。

    在其他新兴市场，联想高歌猛进的增长战略是以牺牲高额利润为代价的，但换来的是销售额的猛增。花旗集团（Citigroup）的分析师在一份研究报告中称，一年前，联想只在12个国家实现了两位数的增长，现在则在35个国家都实现了这一点。杨元庆称，在其他公司当前面临需求萎缩的情况下，联想却进入尚未开发地区的市场，凭借这个战略获得了增长空间。

    杨元庆表示，驱动增长的另一大动力将是联想在PC之外的投资项目。联想全新的移动技术部门贡献的收入现在占公司总收入的7.3%，比去年的3.6%增长了不少。去年，联想在中国售出了700万部手机，其中500万部是智能手机。尽管这是个相对较新的业务，但其智能手机在中国的市场份额已达10%，仅次于三星公司（Samsung）。这一业务预计很快就能实现盈利。

    联想还在服务器领域大显身手。本月初，它宣布计划与信息存储领先公司EMC合作，为后者的存储部门开发服务器。联想预计，这一合作将在今后几年带来数十亿美元的收入。巴克莱银行（Barclays）分析师在致投资者的一封信中这样写道：“（联想）已从一家专注于中国和美国企业电脑领域的PC厂商”转型为一家多元化的企业，它的触角已伸入新兴市场、消费者产品、智能手机、平板电脑和服务器领域。

    但也有人担心，目前正困扰整个行业的那些麻烦会让联想难以独善其身。市场研究公司IDC的研究总监大卫•达伍德称：“联想现在的表现比竞争对手胜出一筹，但他们也面临和竞争对手一样的环境。问题是他们能否持续交出这样的成绩单。因为未来存在很多的不确定因素。”

    其中之一就是全球PC销量的滑坡，另一个因素是中国经济发展放缓。中国市场占联想销售额的42%。7月份，中国经济增速开始下滑，出口增长仅为1%，比6月的11%下降了不少。杨元庆称：“确实存在一些不确定因素。”他表示，其中一个主要原因是政府对房地产泡沫的调控。另一个因素是全球经济低迷对中国出口造成的影响。

    但杨元庆补充说，他认为这些因素都不会造成持久影响。他说：“长期来看，我对中国经济和PC市场仍然乐观。”中国PC的整体出货量下降了3%，而联想则增长了9%。杨元庆表示，成功的部分原因在于联想了解这个市场。对美国公司来说，它们不可能用驴和自行车把产品运往偏远城市，只会花大价钱用联邦快递（FedEx）这样的快递公司来完成物流。联想还更懂得如何在中国中小城市有策略地投放广告，而不是像美国公司那样，依靠盛世长城（Saatchi & Saatchi）这样的大型广告公司来在中国市场探路。

    联想在中国的优势似乎可以归结为，它是一家本土企业，了解本土市场，拥有足以与美国同类产品相抗衡的成熟产品（杨元庆本人也具有这些特点。这位47岁、土生土长的中国人身穿一件领口敞开、样子时尚的紫色衬衫来到专访现场。他的下属对他以姓相称，或直接管他叫YY，这可是很多中国首席执行官无法容忍的做法）。坐拥本土优势的杨元庆欢迎竞争，他甚至可以向竞争对手介绍自己的农村物流和营销策略。不过他补充说：“就算我告诉他们怎么做，他们也办不到。”

    译者：清远

    In an industry riddled with angst over the future of the PC, Lenovo is not sweating it.

    Last week the Chinese personal computer maker posted another quarter of big gains in revenue and profit -- even in markets where PC sales fell. Lenovo has now nearly overtaken its largest rival, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), as the largest personal computer manufacturer in the world. And while many in the industry are fretting about the soft global PC market and the rise of the tablet, Lenovo remains bullish on, well, computers. "The tablet is a good innovation, and a good compliment to the traditional PC," said company chairman and CEO Yang Yuanqing in an interview with Fortune. "Some say the tablet will cannibalize the PC. I have a different opinion."

    His view? Consumers will move toward high-end computers and smartphones with a large screen, leaving tablets as an important niche product. The company even has a moniker for the coming age of computing: the PC-plus era.

    Yang's is one of countless predictions about a fast-changing industry. But in the last three years, his company has proved that it can read the tea leaves better than most. Lenovo has skyrocketed from global 9% market share in 2009 to 15% this year, almost even with HP at 15.7% according to research firm IDC. Its PC shipments rose 24% in the last quarter, the company said, compared with a 2% decline in the industry overall.

    Those improbably large gains come largely from increasing sales in underserved markets. For example, last quarter Lenovo reached a record market share of 35% in China, where personal computer ownership rates are about one fifth what they are in the US.. In the US, that number is closer to 100%. The company has focused in particular on rural areas and small cities in China, where PC ownership is lowest. It has more than 30,000 franchise locations in the country. Urban-centric Apple (AAPL), by comparison, has six. Lenovo's reach is so broad in its home country, that where truck distribution isn't convenient, it sometimes moves its product via bicycle -- or even by donkeys Yang says.

    In other emerging markets, the company's aggressive growth strategy has come at the cost of high profit margins, but has resulted in big sales. Market share is now in the double digits in 35 countries, analysts from Citigroup (CIT) wrote in a research note, up from 12 countries a year ago. The strategy of going into untapped areas has left the company with room to grow, says Yang, even as other companies are facing shrinking demand.

    Another growth driver, Yang says, will be the company's investments beyond PCs. The company's new mobile technology division now makes up 7.3% of company revenue, up from 3.6% last year. Lenovo sold 7 million phones in China last year, 5 million of them smartphones. Despite being a relatively new business, its smartphones have snagged 10% market share in China, second only to Samsung. The business is expected to reach profitability soon.

    The company has also made a play in the server businesses, announcing plans earlier this month to partner with EMC (EMC) to develop servers for EMC storage units. It expects the deal could bring in billions in revenue in the next several years. In a note to investors Barclays (BCS) analysts wrote that "[Lenovo] has transformed from a PC company focusing only on China and the US enterprise PC segment," into a diversified company with a hand in emerging markets, consumer products, smartphones, tablets and servers.

    But some worry that Lenovo is not immune to the woes ailing the industry. "They're doing much better than their competitors, but they're also facing the same environment as their competitors," said IDC research director David Daoud. "The question is could they continue to deliver the types of results that they've delivered. There are a lot of wildcards out there."

    One of those wildcards is the global slump in PC sales, another is a slowdown in the Chinese economy. China accounts for 42% of Lenovo's sales. The country's growth appeared to stutter in July, with exports increasing just 1%, down from an 11% increase the month before. "There is definitely some uncertainty here," Yang says. One of the primary reasons, he says, is government control over the real estate bubble. The other is that the global economic slowdown could impact Chinese exports.

    But Yang added that he thinks neither of those factors would have a lasting impact. "Long-term, I'm still optimistic on the Chinese economy, and the PC market," he said.

    In China, PC shipments declined 3%,while Lenovo's PC shipments in the country grew 9%. Part of that success, Yang says, is knowing the market. Instead of using donkeys and bicycles to move product to cities off the beaten path, American companies might try to hire a carrier such as FedEx (FDX) to make deliveries at a greater cost. Lenovo also knows how to strategically advertise in smaller Chinese cities, rather than having to rely on an ad company such as Saatchi & Saatchi to navigate the landscape for them, as an American company might.

    Indeed, Lenovo's advantage in China seems to be that it is a local player that understands its home market but boasts a product that's sophisticated enough to go toe-to-toe with its U.S. counterparts. (The same could be said for Yang, a 47-year-old Chinese native who arrived at the interview slightly breathless in an open-collared, stylish purple shirt. His staffers call him by his first name, or Y.Y., a practice many Chinese CEOs would not tolerate.) As a result of its local edge, Yang welcomes the competition and says he'll even explain his playbook on logistics and marketing to rural customers. But he adds: "Even if I told them how to do that, they couldn't."