谷歌大胆押宝高速光纤

    上个月，谷歌（Google）宣布推出超高速宽带服务Google Fiber，月付70美元就能享用高达1G的网速，再付50美元就能观赏一系列高清电视频道。市场对此的反应可谓一半是热烈欢迎，一半是疑窦丛生。

    谷歌将该项目的运行试点放在了堪萨斯城，最早申请谷歌这项服务的用户不仅能免交300美元的初装费，还能享受到比目前速度快50倍的联网体验——要知道，绝大多数美国人过去十年来享用的联网速度仅有2兆而已。此举使其它地区的“极客”们既激动，又羡慕。

    而这还不是全部。使用Google Fiber还可一次录下8套电视，7秒钟就能完成下载一部高清电影（5兆带宽完成同样的任务要用22分钟），免费获赠一台Nexus 7平板电脑作为遥控器，还能得到谷歌网络硬盘（Google Drive）上高达太字节的免费存储空间。最关键的是——没有流量限制！

    这项服务推出一周后，堪萨斯城已有超过7,000个家庭提出了安装申请，其中4,900户来自密苏里州，2,100户来自堪萨斯州。这一数目约为堪萨斯城家庭总数的5%。申请居民共有六周的时间发动其所在的“fiberhoods”（谷歌在堪萨斯城划分出的可享受该服务的不同大小的社区——译注）中的邻居提出申请，目前进程刚好过半。截止本周，部分小区已有39%的家庭安装了这项服务。

    这是一个充满希望的开端，但是围绕Google Fiber展开的争论还远未平息。焦点之一是，这一服务会像谷歌的搜索引擎或Gmail那样富有创新性，足以重塑市场格局吗？焦点之二是，这个计划很有趣，却也代价高昂，它会是像谷歌通过自己的在线商店销售Nexus one那样的试验吗？

    这一争论很可能将持续好几年，因为只有经过足够长的时间，Google Fiber才能对人们使用高速宽带的方式产生重大影响。目前很清楚的一点，也是Google Fiber在推出时就在预料之中的情况，它受到了用户的热烈追捧。但它同样将招来无数强敌——尤其是谷歌现在挑战的那些实力雄厚的大型互联网服务提供商们（ISP）。

    比如，近几年来，威瑞森公司（Verizon）就已在选定的数个城市提供FiOS高速光纤服务。威瑞森称，该服务已有420万家订户，他们每月交205美元就能接收530个频道，享用速度高达150兆的宽带。公司还称，已在这一网络上投资230亿美元，但一些评论者对此表示质疑。

    美国电话电报公司（AT&T）、时代华纳公司（Time-Warner）和康卡斯特公司（Comcast）也都以较低的网速提供互联网和有线电视服务。与谷歌不同的是，他们与自己的用户建立了持久牢固的关系，在宽带竞争中拥有更高的品牌认知度。如果谷歌要向其他城市推广光纤服务，它就需要在客服（通常占ISP成本的四分之一）上投资更多，并竞购更多的有线频道。

    不过，对谷歌有利的是，它推出Fiber时计划周详，直击当前ISP最大的软肋：高价低速。随着视频聊天、流媒体观赏以及照片分享的需求日益增长，人们发现自己的宽带已经不够“宽”了。在阿卡迈公司（Akamai，全球最大的CDN服务商，致力于网络交通提速——译注）发布的高速宽带国家排行榜上，美国仅位列第15位。而与当前多数ISP相比，Google Fiber价格更低、速度更快。

    谷歌还充分利用了传统社交网络的力量来吸引用户。它推出了一系列奖励措施，让堪萨斯城Fiberhood内的用户更有动力推荐邻居申请使用：更高的订用率可让推荐人优先享用该服务，同时确保学校和应急机构能用上这一光纤联网。

    但是，谷歌此次下注的投资回报率也暗藏风险。该项目仅在堪萨斯城一地推广的费用就达到了5亿美元。如果向众多城市推开，谷歌手中430亿美元的现金储备将迅速烧光。但是宽带内容的大幅增长也会让谷歌在网络和电视广告上获得新的收入来源。同时，通过成为ISP，谷歌也会在众多美国家庭中赢得更为稳固的一席之地。

    Google Fiber是该公司有史以来最为雄心勃勃的项目之一，其他两项大手笔是：围绕Google+这一社交网络重新设计谷歌所有网站；出手惊人地花费125亿美元收购摩托罗拉移动公司（Motorola）。

    就目前来看，谷歌要从和几大ISP的较量中胜出似乎还有待时日。但它所打开的这一局面原本就需要数年才能见分晓，而且现在要弄清谷歌是否真的打算成千上万的用户提供高达1G的带宽服务，在资费上与现在慢得多的网速开展竞争还为时过早。不过，谷歌已显著改善了高速宽带接入服务的商业面貌，使现有巨头必须发奋图强，避免困局。

    正如麦格理证券公司（Macquarie Securities）的分析师本•萨切特在近期一份报告中所说：“对谷歌来说，这一创举与其说是创造长期收入的机会，不如说是推动现有互联网服务供应商提高网速，励志创新（而从长期看这会给谷歌带来好处）。”

    这也许才是谷歌真正的目标所在。它无意从ISP们那里抢生意，而是要推动他们行动起来——改善服务，为众多公司增加收入。

    译者：清远

    Last month, Google announced its Google Fiber initiative promising 1 gigabit of Internet speed for $70 a month and throwing in dozens of high-definition television channels for another $50 a month. The announcement was greeted with equal parts enthusiasm and skepticism.

    The news elicited a lot of excitement and envy from geeks outside of Kansas City, where Google (GOOG) had chosen to do a pilot run of the project. Not only would Google waive the $300 installation fee for early subscribers, it would give them online access that's 50 times faster than the 2-megabits-per-second access most Americans have lived with for much of the past decade.

    But that wasn't all. Google Fiber also offered the ability to record eight TV programs at a time. And to download a single high-def movie in seven seconds (versus 22 minutes for a 5mbps connection). And a free Nexus 7 tablet as a remote control. And a free terabyte of data storage on Google Drive. And, on top of all this, no data caps.

    A week after the announcement, Google had signed up more than 7,000 homes in Kansas City, 4,900 in Missouri and 2,100 in Kansas. That's about 5% of the cities' total homes. Residents are halfway through the six-week rally to get others in their designated "fiberhoods" to sign up. As of this week, some neighborhoods have as much as 39% of their homes plugged in.

    It's a promising start, but the debate is far from settled over whether Google Fiber will be disruptive in the way its search engine or Gmail was, or whether it will be an interesting -- but costly -- experiment like the company's plan to sell the Nexus one through its own online store.

    That debate is likely to continue for several years, because it's going to take that long for Google Fiber to have anything more than an incremental impact on the way people access a high-bandwidth Internet. What's clear is that Google Fiber, as conceived at launch, has a lot going for it. But it also has a lot going against it -- notably the entrenched power of the giant ISPs Google is taking on.

    Verizon (VZ), for example, has offered its FiOS fiber-optic plan in select cities for years. The company says it has 4.2 million subscribers receiving 530 channels and broadband speeds up to 150 mpbs for the price of $205 a month. Verizon also claims to have spent $23 billion on the network, although some observers have questioned its numbers.

    AT&T (T), Time-Warner (TWX) and Comcast (CMCSA) also offer Internet/TV plans at lower speeds. Unlike Google, they have longstanding relationships with their ISP customers and a stronger brand recognition in the broadband game. If Google expands its Fiber program to other cities, it will need to spend more on customer support -- which can be a quarter of an ISP's costs -- and compete for a broad array of cable channels.

    In its favor, however, Google has launched Fiber with a thought-out plan aimed at the biggest frustration surrounding current ISP plans: relatively slow speeds at high prices. As video chat, streaming media and photo sharing have increased, people are finding their broadband isn't broad enough anymore. The U.S. is 15th on Akamai's list of the countries with fast broadband. Google Fiber offers faster speeds at lower prices than most ISP's offer today.

    Google is also using the power of old-fashioned social networking to draw subscribers. The fiberhoods in Kansas City have incentives to get neighbors to sign up -- higher subscription rates bump you to the front of the line, and ensure that schools and emergency responders have access to fiber connections.

    There is also a risky cost-versus-return bet that Google is taking. The Kansas City project will cost $500 million. Scaling that up to many cities would quickly burn through Google's $43 billion in cash. But the surge in broadband content could bring Google new revenue from web and TV advertising. And by becoming an ISP, Google could win a strong presence in many U.S. living rooms.

    Google Fiber is one of the most ambitious undertakings in the company's history, up there with the push to redesign all Google sites around the social structure of Google+ and the surprising move to pay $12.5 billion for Motorola.

    Right now, Google's chances at disrupting the major ISPs looks like a long shot. But this is a gambit that will take years to play out, and it's way too early to count Google out if it's serious about offering one-gigabit access to millions of people at a rate competitive with much slower connections today. It's dramatically improved the business case for high-bandwidth access, in a way that incumbents will have to work hard to avoid.

    As Ben Schacter, an analyst at Macquarie Securities, said in a recent report, "this initiative is less about a long-term revenue opportunity for Google and more about pushing current Internet providers to increase speeds and innovate (which could benefit Google in the long run)."

    And that may be the real goal for Google. Not to take business from ISPs, but to get them to get their act together – improving service for consumers, and increasing revenue for many companies.