动视暴雪公司一枝独秀的奥秘

    对于视频游戏产业而言，今年是非常难熬的一年。根据研究机构NPD公司的数据，仅7月份，整个游戏产业的销售额就比去年同期下降了20%，降至5.484亿美元。与去年同期相比，硬件销售额下降了32%，游戏制造商的总收入下降23%。

    我们很难从这些数字中看到一丝希望。正如无数的分析师所言，视频游戏产业正面临一场完美风暴。夏季几乎总是会出现一定程度的放缓。其次，大多数开发商正在推出的要么是现有游戏的续集，要么仅对更小规模的市场受众有吸引力。与此同时，微软公司（Microsoft）的 Xbox 360、任天堂公司（Nintendo）的Wii 和索尼公司（Sony）的PlayStation 3等知名游戏机也日渐老迈。“当前的游戏机市场周期目前处于其第八个年头，这种前所未有的局面正在让游戏玩家心生疲惫，不仅鲜有新IP加入，大批玩家更是转移到了免费的多人在线游戏领域，手持设备和任天堂Wii 的市场份额不断被蚕食，”韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush）的分析师迈克尔•帕切特最近在一份研究报告中这样写道。

    尽管整个游戏产业显然已经深陷困境，但有一家公司仍然一骑绝尘，持续获得竞争对手根本无法匹及的业绩：它就是动视暴雪公司（Activision Blizzard）。动视暴雪上个月宣布该公司第二季度获得10.75亿美元的收入，实现利润1.85亿美元。与这份傲人业绩一道发布的还有一组令人印象深刻的统计数据，比如该公司在第二季度美国和英国独立游戏发行商排行榜中都位列榜首。此外，今年上半年最畅销的游戏机和手持游戏（以美元计算）亦是动视暴雪公司的产品。锦上添花的是，该公司的《暗黑破坏神3》（Diablo III）成为今年迄今为止最热销的PC游戏。

    动视暴雪并没有陷入电子艺界（Electronic Arts）和仟游软件科技（Take-Two Interactive）等竞争对手面临的困境。比如，《侠盗猎车手》（Grand Theft Auto）系列游戏制造商仟游软件科技公司宣布该公司在第二季度实现销售额2.26亿美元，亏损1.108亿美元。对于任天堂公司来说，这同样是一个令人忧虑的时期：它的收入下跌了近10%，跌至10.7亿美元。由于Wii游戏机销售下滑，这家历史悠久的《马里奥》（Mario）系列游戏制造商出现了2.17亿美元的净亏损。

    那么，动视暴雪公司究竟对在哪里？首先，这家公司深谙游戏制作之道。它的《使命的召唤》（Call of Duty）是世界上最受欢迎的游戏产品。在在线游戏方面，动视暴雪的《魔兽世界》（World of Warcraft）已经成为有史以来销售速度最快的PC游戏。最新的游戏产品也表现出色。“在我们看来，《暗黑破坏神3》的成功证明，游戏玩家们非常赏识这家开发商及其提供的高品质游戏体验，”帕切特在本月发布的一份研究报告中写道。“根据我们的分析，游戏玩家再次显示出了放弃平庸的目录内容，花钱购买新款游戏产品的意愿。”

    即将上市的一系列游戏产品让投资者们倍受鼓舞——这些投资者已经被萎靡不振的视频游戏市场搞得疲惫不堪。今年11月份，动视暴雪公司将发布《使命的召唤》系列游戏的最新一款：《使命召唤：黑色行动2》（Call of Duty: Black Ops 2）。去年发布的《使命召唤：现代战争3》（Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3）特别受欢迎，仅上市头16天就创造了10亿美元的销售额。该公司预计，《黑色行动2》的市场表现要么将接近其前身的业绩，要么将一举超越。“结合《使命的召唤》系列游戏的整体销售记录来观察，有充足的证据可以证明这款游戏的强势表现还将延续下去，”动视暴雪子公司动视出版公司（Activision Publishing）CEO埃里克•赫什伯格在最近的一次财报电话会议上这样说道。

    但是，也有许多地方可能会出问题。分析人士惊讶地发现，《魔兽世界》系列游戏的订购用户已经减少了100万，他们因此担心这家公司将如何应对这款老游戏销量下滑的问题。如同视频游戏产业的其他公司一样，动视暴雪公司也必须依赖现有游戏的续集产品来推动营收，进而减少了能够带来新的长期生意的原创游戏的发展空间。更重要的是，已成惊弓之鸟的投资者似乎已经丧失了对整个视频游戏产业的热情。但至少就当下而言，动视暴雪公司似乎依然是这一领域难以击败的王者。

    译者：任文科

    It's been a tough year for the video game industry. In July alone, according to research firm NPD, total game industry sales reached $548.4 million, down 20% compared to July 2011. Hardware sales dropped 32%, and game makers saw overall revenue decline 23% year-over-year.

    It was hard to find a glimmer of hope in the numbers. As countless analysts have said, the industry is facing a perfect storm. Summer months almost always tend to be a bit slower. Secondly, most developers are launching games that are either sequels or appeal to a smaller subset of the market. Game consoles -- Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox 360, Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii and the Sony (SNE) PlayStation 3 -- are getting long in the tooth, meanwhile. "The current console cycle, currently in its unprecedented eighth year, is generating fatigue among gamers, with little new IP, mass migration to free online multiplayer gaming, and continued market share losses for the handhelds and Nintendo Wii," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote recently in a research note.

    Despite the industry's obvious troubles, one company continues to achieve results that competitors can't quite match: Activision Blizzard (ATVI). The company announced last month that it generated $1.075 billion in revenue during the second quarter and a $185 million profit. That success accompanied a host of impressive statistics, including news of its standing as the top independent game publisher in the U.S. and U.K. during the second quarter. It also sold the top-selling console and handheld game, in terms of dollars, for the first half of the year. To top things off, its Diablo III is the top-selling PC game so far this year.

    The woes of rivals like Electronic Arts (EA) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) haven't hurt. During the second quarter, for example, Take-Two Interactive, maker of the popular Grand Theft Auto franchise, announced sales of $226 million. The company lost $110.8 million. It was a similarly troubling period for Nintendo, which saw its revenue drop by nearly 10% to $1.07 billion.The venerable Mario maker posted a net loss of $217 million due to slumping Wii sales.

    What is Activision Blizzard doing right? For one thing, the company knows how to make games. Its Call of Duty franchise is the world's most popular console title. On the online-gaming front, Blizzard's World of Warcraft has become the fastest-selling PC game of all time. Newer titles have also fared well. "In our view, the success of [Diablo III] is a testament to gamer appreciation for the developer and franchise, as well as for high-quality gameplay experiences," Pachter wrote in a research note this month. "In-line with our thesis, gamers have once again shown a willingness to forego mediocre catalog content and spend on premier new releases."

    A slate of upcoming titles has cheered investors made weary by a market down on video games in general. This November, the company will be launching the latest installment in its Call of Duty franchise, Call of Duty: Black Ops 2. Last year's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 was especially popular, generating $1 billion in sales in just its first 16 days of availability. Black Ops 2 is expected to either come close to matching or beat out its predecessor altogether. "When taken in combination with the record engagement of the Call of Duty franchise overall, there is strong evidence of tremendous continued engagement with the franchise," Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg said on a recent earnings call.

    Plenty could go wrong. Analysts were surprised to see that World of Warcraft subscriptions had slipped by 1 million users, raising concerns about how the company will manage that aging title's decline. And, like the rest of the industry, the firm has had to rely on sequels to boost earnings, leaving less room for original franchises which can generate new long-term business. Most of all, squeamish investors seem to have gone cold on video games over all. But, for the time being, Activision Blizzard still appears to be the one to beat.