《苹果解密》作者解读iPhone 5发布会

    上周三举行的苹果iPhone 5发布会上，一切事实和数据都大白于天下。大家的共识是：苹果公司（Apple）并未改变任何人的世界，但他们还是会赚个盆满钵满！

    对此本人还有一些想法如下：

    苹果的保密能力正在遭受挑战。《纽约时报》（The New York Times）的尼克•比尔顿在一篇短文中引用了我的观点，称苹果再也不擅长保守秘密了。他的理由是，新iPhone 5的照片和发布会日期早在几个月前就已经广为人知了。此话不假。不过我还是得挑挑这个说法的刺。首先，虽然发布会的主角早就曝光了，但还有其他配角并没有露出真容。我就没听到有传言说这次发布会将推出新款iPod和升级的iTunes Store。另一方面，传言还说苹果会发布一款更小的iPad，这话也并没有说中。更切题的讨论其实应该是保密工作到底有多重要。我在自己的书中专辟了一章谈保密问题，毫无疑问，它正是苹果公司企业文化不可分割的一部分。不过正如我跟比尔顿所说的，随着苹果成为一家规模超大的全球性公司，与苹果用户的规模比起来，产品博客的重要性正在下降。绝大多数苹果用户是否决定购买苹果产品，取决于他们对上周三举办的这类苹果特有的营销活动的反应，而不是苹果产品网站上狂热粉丝们的评测。我曾经下过结论称，随着苹果公司规模不断扩大，复杂程度不断提高，其保密守则的执行能力自然也会随之下降。而没有回答过的问题是，这种情况到底会带来多大的影响。

    对苹果的期望值已高不可攀。用财经网站Breakingviews.com的话来说，这次大家对苹果新品发布会的共同看法是“让人打盹”。但这主要是由于iPhone 5渐进式的改进再也无法像它原来那些震撼世界的新产品那样令人激动不已。不过，我们还是很容易衡量苹果是否满足了所有人对其抱有的商业高要求。比如，富国银行（Wells Fargo）的研究分析师梅纳德•乌姆去年就曾对客户表示，他预计iPhone 5的销量将超过iPhone 4S，因为苹果公司现在会与更多运营商合作，推出新品的周期也更短了。苹果曾宣布，iPhone 4S开售三天内销量就达到了400万台，也因此给它自己设定了一个难以打破的高难目标。

    从周边产品榨取价值。苹果还发布了叫做EarPods的新款头戴式耳机，同时改进了闪电数据线，使它变得更小巧，还能折叠。乌姆曾表示，这类配件往往会让苹果获利颇丰。这些当然都是些不值一提的小玩意儿，但它也表明苹果是多么能大把搂钱。发布会后，苹果产品营销副总裁格里格•乔斯瓦克告诉我，苹果将发售一款能让旧数据线连到新设备的转换器，售价29美元。如果你和我一样，也使用了苹果的产品，那就有可能在某些时候需要这类东西。

    果粉哈欠连天，投资者一片喝彩。华尔街喜欢苹果的渐进式改进，尤其是他们理解了其中奥妙所在之后。周四盘中苹果的股价上涨2%，也就是每股上涨了14美元。这意味着苹果的市值增加了130亿美元。呃，这还是很让人失望。尽管已经站到了684美元的高位，但苹果的股价还是便宜得可笑。现在的股价已经是投资者希望苹果在2013财年实现的盈利目标的13倍之多，但对一个像苹果这样飞速增长的公司来说，这个倍数还是太低了。而基金公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的托尼•萨克纳吉将他对苹果的目标股价从750美元调高到了800美元。

    译者：清远

    The facts and figures are all out from the iPhone 5 launch on Wednesday. The consensus: Apple didn't change anyone's world. But they're going to make a lot of money!

    Here are some additional thoughts:

    Apple's secret-keeping abilities are being challenged. Nick Bilton of The New York Times quoted me in a brief post suggesting Apple (AAPL) isn't any good at keeping secrets anymore. His evidence is that photos of the new iPhone 5 and the date of Apple's event itself leaked many months ago. True that. I'd quibble with a couple strains of the argument, though. First, though the meat of the event leaked, there were elements that didn't. I heard no chatter that the event would include new iPods and a refreshed iTunes Store. On the other hand, the rumor mill also had Apple releasing a smaller iPad, which didn't happen. More to the point is how much this matters. I devoted a chapter in my book to secrecy, and there's no question it's an integral part of the Apple culture. Still, as I told Bilton, with Apple becoming a massive global company, the relevance of product blogs declines in relation to the size of Apple's customer's base. The vast majority of Apple's customers will be basing their decisions on their reactions to the typical Apple marketing maneuvers that ground into gear Wednesday, not to fanboy analysis of Apple product sites. I have asserted that Apple's ability to enforce its code of silence will degrade as a natural result of its size and increasing complexity. The unanswered question is how much it matters.

    Expectations for Apple are sky-high. The consensus is that Apple's presentation was, in the words of Breakingviews.com, a "snooze." But that's largely because incremental improvements are never as exciting as earth-shatteringly new products. Still, it will be easy to measure if Apple lives up to the demanding business expectations everyone has for it. For example, Maynard Um, a research analyst with Wells Fargo, told clients he expects sales of the iPhone 5 will exceed those of the iPhone 4S last year because Apple is launching with more cell-phone companies around the world and in a shorter time frame. Apple announced that it sold 4 million units of the iPhone 4S in the first three days it was available, thus setting up a high bogey for itself to beat.

    Sweating the details. Apple also unveiled new headphones, or EarPods, and revamped "Lightning" connector cord, which is smaller and reversible. Wells Fargo's Um noted that accessories typically carry high margins for Apple. This is hum-drum, of course, but it also points to how Apple rakes in the cash. Greg Joswiak, an Apple product marketing vice-president, told me after the event the adaptor Apple will sell to help connect your old cords to the new devices will cost $29. If you're like me, at some point, you're going to need a few of those.

    Fanboys yawn, investors applaud. Wall Street liked Apple's incrementalism, especially after having an opportunity to digest it. By midday Apple's shares were up 2% Thursday, or about $14 a share. That's about $13 billion in additional market value. Ho-hum. At $684, Apple's shares remain laughably cheap. They are worth about 13 times what investors expect Apple to earn in its 2013 fiscal year, a low multiple for a company growing as fast as Apple. Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi raised his price target on Apple's shares to $800 from $750.