Zynga反弹还有戏

    18个月前，社交游戏公司Zynga还高踞世界之巅。当时，它正在密切接触华尔街的精英，积极筹备上市，有望成为多年来最受期待的IPO之一。风投资本家、对冲基金，甚至一些散户投资者纷至沓来，都想从中分一杯羹。他们下的注是，这家公司一旦上市，就能带来两位数——甚至可能是三位数的回报。可惜Zynga上市后，这些赌注全都化为乌有。因为它失策连连，盈利水平未达预期，诉讼不断，高管大批离职。还有其他问题让公司业绩无法实现增长，并使股价缩水高达70%。

    上周，Zynga大幅下调了2012年的业绩预期。随后，情况变得更加不可收拾。现在依然心有余悸的投资者们纷纷发出疑问，作为风靡世界的社交游戏“开心农场”（FarmVille）和“城市小镇”（CityVille）背后的公司，Zynga怎样才能扭转颓势。还有些人干脆开始怀疑，是不是只有出售公司才是最有可能迎来复苏的出路。最近Zynga的股价仅为2.48美元，与其2012年3月的最高点15.91美元和2011年IPO时的10美元都相去甚远。瑞德资本管理公司（Lazard Capital Management）资深分析师阿图尔•巴戈称：“让其他公司来对Zynga估个价是否有意义呢？答案显然是肯定的。很多公司都能从Zynga的专业技术和可靠平台中获益。”

    业内专家称，有意拓展社交游戏业务的大型传媒公司和希望拓展在线纸牌游戏的传统博彩公司都是潜在的买家。比如，迪斯尼公司（Disney）就在2010年以5.632亿美元、外加高达2亿美元的收益外购（earn-out）收购了社交游戏开发公司Playdom。分析人士普遍认为，其他传媒公司可能也打算采取类似行动，而Zynga正是个绝佳的收购对象。

    只要联邦政府允许在线纸牌游戏合法化，拉斯维加斯的金沙和永利集团（Sands and Wynn）这类博彩巨头毫不掩饰他们进军在线游戏市场的决心。战略咨询公司Frank N. Magid Associates的Magid Advisors部门总裁迈克•沃豪斯称：“Zynga的一大资产就是他们的纸牌游戏和大量的纸牌游戏玩家。”他还进一步指出，今年年初，专为赌场制造游戏设备的国际游戏科技公司（International Game Technology）进入了这一领域，出价约5亿美元收购了社交游戏公司Double Down Interactive（该公司开发了Facebook的流行博彩游戏DoubleDown）。

    但是，尽管Zynga股价疲软，但有意收购它的公司必须财力雄厚才行。Zynga家底殷实，报表上有超过15亿美元现金。除了那些深感挫败的股东，也没有迫使它必须在近期出售的债务或其他压力。尽管这家上市公司今年头两个财季的季度营收未能达标，还把2012年预期息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）削减了一半，但公司仍在赚钱。

    沃豪斯表示，尽管季度业绩疲软，“他们每个月还是有净现金流，所以公司的现金实际上是在增加而非减少。这并不是一家不赚钱的公司。”而据券商Sterne, Agee & Leach公司的总经理阿维德•巴迪亚估算，仅净现金流一项就值约每股1.65美元，而Zynga还拥有房地产。因此分析师相信，现在即使用最保守的收入乘数，Zynga也不太可能接受低于IPO时每股10美元的报价。沃豪斯称：“如果有公司打算现在低价买入（按目前的股价），那就等于是偷了，而首席执行官的职责可不是帮人偷公司。”

    Zynga was on top of the world 18 months ago, courting Wall Street's crème-de-la-crème as it prepared to enter the public markets in one of the most highly anticipated IPOs in years. Venture capitalists, hedge funds, and even retail investors all scrambled for a piece of a company, which they were betting would deliver double-digit -- possibly even triple-digit -- returns. Those bets went up in smoke after going public as a flurry of missteps, missed earnings numbers, lawsuits, an exodus of senior executives, and other issues choked the company's growth and caused its shares to lose more than 70% of their value.

    Things got even worse last week when it drastically reduced in its 2012 outlook. Now shell-shocked investors are wondering how Zynga (ZNGA), the company behind such popular social games as FarmVille and CityVille, can turn its troubles around, with some wondering if a sale might be the most likely path forward. Zynga's shares recently traded hands at $2.48 a share, a far cry from its all-time high of $15.91 set in March 2012 and IPO price of $10 in December 2011. "Does it make sense for some other company to look at Zynga? Definitely," says Atul Bagga, a senior analyst at Lazard Capital Management. "There are a lot of companies that could benefit with Zynga's expertise and credible platform."

    Industry experts cite large media companies, wanting to branch into social gaming, and traditional gambling companies that want to expand into online poker, as possible suitors. Disney (DIS), for example, acquired social gaming developer Playdom in 2010 for $563.2 million plus an earn-out of up to $200 million. Analysts speculate other media companies may be looking at similar moves, and Zynga could be a good candidate.

    And gaming moguls, such as Las Vegas Sands and Wynn (WYNN), have made no secret of the fact that they're interested in expanding into online gaming if the Federal Government legalizes online poker. "One of the great assets Zynga has is their poker game and their large number of poker players," says Mike Vorhaus, president of Magid Advisors, a unit of strategic consulting firm Frank N. Magid Associates. Vorhaus notes that International Game Technology, which makes gaming equipment for casinos, moved into this segment earlier this year when it acquired rival social gaming company Double Down Interactive (which developed the Facebook's (FB) popular DoubleDown casino game) for about $500 million.

    Still, it would take a company with deep pockets to buy Zynga today, despite the company's weak stock price. Zynga has a solid balance sheet, which includes more than $1.5 billion in cash, and has no debt issues or other pressures that could force it to sell in the near-term, other than frustrated shareholders. Even though Zynga missed quarterly earnings numbers in its first two quarters as a public company and slashed its 2012 EBITDA outlook in half, the company is still making money.

    "They make free cash flow every month, so their cash is actually increasing, not decreasing," despite the weak quarterly results, notes Vorhaus. "They're not an unprofitable company." The free cash alone works out to about $1.65 a share, estimates Arvind Bhatia, a managing director at Sterne, Agee & Leach, and the company owns real estate on top of that. So, even using modest revenue multiples, analysts believe it's unlikely the company would accept an offer of less than the $10-a-share IPO price at this time. "If someone were to come in now [at the current pricing,] they would be trying to steal it, and it's not the CEO's job to help somebody steal the company," argues Vorhaus.