摩根大通伦敦鲸阴魂不散
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摩根大通(JPMorgan)要摆脱伦敦鲸的打击，可能会比杰米•戴蒙想象得更困难。 上周五，摩根大通发布了创纪录的第三季度利润。当时，首席执行官戴蒙表示，有毒的合成交易将该行卷入了风波，但这只是个“小插曲”。他在与记者和分析师召开的多次公司电话会议上，无数次说到这些损失已不是问题，希望我们能停止谈论这个话题。 戴蒙在某种程度上说得没错。总体来看，这一交易损失现为62亿美元，可能会再增加10亿美元。但第三季度仅计入区区4.49亿美元，甚至都不足以影响应该对这些交易损失负责的首席投资办公室（Chief investment office，简称CIO）的利润，更别提整个公司的利润了。虽然有伦敦鲸风波和其他影响，该行第三季度的利润达到了令人吃惊的57亿美元。其余损失，如果有损失的话（戴蒙曾暗示称，剩余头寸可能盈利），将按时间推移进行分摊。摩根大通已变得大到不能倒。 但从长远来看，伦敦鲸对该行造成的损失可能不止这些。首席投资办公室的目的是对冲该行放贷业务的风险。但办公室前负责人伊那•德鲁认为，她不仅能对冲银行风险，还能在这个过程中赚钱。她也确实赚过不少钱。更重要的是，她在该行其他业务不赚钱的时候同样赚了很多钱。 仅2008年和2009年，首席投资办公室就曾创造了48亿美元的利润。这是一个非常大的数额，是摩根大通零售银行业务（包括银行和投资建议）同期利润的5倍，比规模大很多、而且更为人知的投资银行业务同期利润也只少了20亿美元。 伦敦鲸事件发生后，摩根大通已经显著缩减首席投资办公室的业务。该行早就预计下个季度首席投资办公室将损失3亿美元，这意味着该公司为对冲放贷业务风险付出的代价已经超过了放贷业务的利息收入。太安全了。这对于对冲操作是正常的，为3,500亿美元的组合付出这样的代价也不是什么了不得的费用。但就在几年前，首席投资办公室还是摇钱树。 一些损失将被组合的增长所抵消。摩根大通称，首席投资办公室的组合价值第三季度增长了30亿美元。这是由于债券价格上涨。但在市场不景气的时期，首席投资办公室组合的上涨并没有那么明显和可靠。 曾几何时，对金融危机和杰米•戴蒙的评价是：摩根大通首席执行官早早预见到了次债按揭市场的崩盘，因此引领该行避开雷区，成了一位英雄。但今年看来，这只是一方面。在幕后，戴蒙有一个鲜为人知的部门压下了巨额的高风险赌注，在艰难时期曾出人意料地获得了回报。但如今这一切都已经成为往事。 译者：早稻米 |
Casting off JPMorgan's London Whale may be harder than Jamie Dimon thinks. On Friday, when JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported its third quarter record profits, CEO Dimon said the toxic mix of synthetic trades that have plagued the bank was a "sideshow." In conference calls with reporters and analysts, he said numerous times that the losses weren't an issue any more, and he hoped we could all stop talking about it. And in a way Dimon is right. Overall, the trading loss is now at $6.2 billion, and could grow by another $1 billion. But in the quarter it was a mere $449 million. That wasn't even enough to crater the bottom line of the chief investment office, the unit which was until recently responsible for the losing trades, let alone the whole bank. London Whale and all, the bank ended up earning an astounding $5.7 billion from July through September. The rest of the losses, if there are any (Dimon hinted at the fact that the remaining position could make a profit), will drip out overtime. JPMorgan has become Too Big To Lose. But in the long-haul the London Whale may have cost the bank more than it appears. The stated point of the chief investment office was to hedge the bank's lending division. But Ina Drew, the former head of the unit that gave birth to the Whale, believed that she could not only hedge the bank, but make money while doing it. And she made a lot. More importantly, she made a lot of money when other parts of the bank weren't. In 2008 and 2009 alone, the CIO office had profits of $4.8 billion. That's a huge amount. It's five times as much as the bank's retail unit, which includes banking and investment advice, made in the same time. And it's only $2 billion short of what the much larger, and much better known, investment banking division of JPMorgan made in the same time. In the wake of the Whale, JPMorgan has significantly cut back what the CIO does. The bank is already projecting that the unit will lose $300 million in interest in the next quarter, meaning what it is paying for protection is more than what the bank will make back in interest. It's gone ultra safe. That's normal for a hedge, and not a heck of a lot to pay to protect a portfolio that is $350 billion. But just a few years ago, the unit used to be a money printer. Some of those losses will be offset by gains in the portfolio. JPMorgan said that the value of the CIO's portfolio rose by $3 billion in the third quarter. That was because bond prices rose. In bad times, though, it's not clear gains in the CIO's portfolio will be there to draw on. For a while, the history of the financial crisis and Jamie Dimon stood as this: JPMorgan's CEO spotted the subprime mortgage market blowup early, steered his bank clear of it and emerged a hero. But what has become clear this year is that's only part of the story. Behind the scenes Dimon had a little know unit making huge risky bets that miraculously paid off in times of trouble. And now it's gone. |
