汽车界的四个新迷思

    人们知道自己一直以来深信不疑的事实并非如此之时，对世界的认识就会发生了翻天覆地的变化。比方说，我最近就发现头发湿了不会导致感冒，运动前的伸展运动是多此一举，每3,000英里更换机油纯粹是浪费宝贵的时间。

    但这个专栏不是要探讨保健、个人理财或汽车保养。最近，我们获得的一些最新分析和信息严重颠覆了历来被视作汽车行业圣经的一些观念。以下是最新发现的汽车界存在的四个认识误区：

    误区一：美国经济一咳嗽，底特律就得感冒。

    这些年来，我们一直认为底特律是反映美国经济进入衰退的先行指标。购车是近乎完美的消费信心衡量指标；汽车价格昂贵，而且购车通常可以延后。经济下滑迹象刚刚显露，汽车销售就会下滑。

    但这次不同。尽管GDP增长迟缓，失业率高企，中产阶级收入受到挤压，汽车和卡车销售仍在增长。9月份，美国汽车销量折合成年率接近1,500万辆，为2008年初以来的最高销量。到底怎么回事？

    R.L. Polk北美预测领先分析师汤姆•利比表示，汽车业务的表现与经济越来越脱钩。原因在于：“我们看到的美国汽车销售势头，部分源于国际经济态势，部分源于在美经营的全球汽车制造商所采取的行动。”

    作为证据，利比指出，外国汽车制造商在美国市场的份额正在增加，它们的快速发展与美国经济无关：丰田（Toyota）和本田（Honda）正在从去年日本海啸的冲击中逐步恢复；复苏中的大众（Volkswagen）重新着力美国市场；现代（Hyundai）和起亚（Kia）虽然最近由于劳工问题出现库存短缺，但已经多月实现了销售的两位数增长。

    利比总结称：“虽然一些北美本地趋势对美国新车行业的走向有很大影响，但其他一些更广泛的全球因素也在起作用。汽车制造商的全球策略和国际经济态势往往能揭示我们在美国所看到现状的背后原因。”

    误区二：全球石油将耗尽。

    多年来，我们一直假定石油资源是有限的，全球石油很快就会枯竭。一个盛行的理论是“石油峰值理论”。在某一时间，全球石油产量将达到最高点，随后将一路走低，导致严重的短缺。悲观的预计认为，这个峰值要么已经出现，要么很快就会来临。

    但英国皇家国际事务研究所（Royal Institute of International Affairs）的一份最新报告认为，石油耗尽的威胁已没有那么紧迫，石油峰值理论看起来越来越不是那么回事。世界面对的不是有限的石油资源，只是需要加快速度将极其庞大的石油资源转变为可用于开采的探明储量。（感谢The Truth About Cars网站告知这篇报告。）

    令人惊异的事实是，由于石油价格居高不下，技术越来越先进，我们不断发现的石油数量已远远超过了我们的开采能力。该报告称，从1980年至2011年，全球的石油开采量比原本预计埋在地下的石油储量多出了1,000亿桶，同时可供未来开采的已探明储量还增加了一倍还多。

    即便不再有新的发现或增加，以当前的石油消耗速度，仍可用54年。事实上，石油行业还可以期待更长的时间，因为将来还会在现有矿藏中发现更多石油储量，还会有新的油田发现。另外随着价格上涨，石油消费也将减少。

    Your understanding of the world shifts in immeasurable ways when you learn that something you have always believed to be true isn't. For instance, I've lately discovered that wet heads don't cause colds, stretching before exercise is unnecessary, and changing your oil every 3,000 miles is an expensive waste of time.

    But this isn't a column about health care, personal finance, or car maintenance. Recently, we've gotten fresh analysis and new information that seriously undermine what has been considered the gospel truth in the auto business. Here are the auto world's four new misconceptions:

    Myth No. 1: When the U.S. economy catches a cold, Detroit gets pneumonia.

    For years, we've held that Detroit has led the U.S economy into recession. Car purchases are a near-perfect barometer of consumer confidence; they are expensive, and their purchase is usually deferrable. At the first sign of a business downturn, auto sales swoon.

    But not this time. Despite sluggish GDP growth, high unemployment, and the squeeze on the middle class, car and truck sales are rising. In September, they came close to an annual rate of 15 million, the fastest pace since early 2008. What's going on?

    Tom Libby, North American forecasting lead analyst for R.L. Polk, says the performance of the car business is becoming increasingly detached from the state of the economy. Reason: "The dynamics we see here in the U.S. stem in part from the patterns of international economies as well as from actions taken by global auto manufacturers who happen to be doing business in the states."

    As evidence, Libby points to the foreign automakers whose presence in the U.S. is growing and whose fortunes are improving because of factors unrelated to the economy: Toyota (TM) and Honda, which are recovering from last year's tsunami; a resurgent Volkswagen, focusing anew on the U.S market; and Hyundai/Kia, which, despite inventory shortages because of recent labor problems, has produced many months of double-digit sales gains.

    Concludes Libby: "While some local, North American trends play an influential role in the behavior of the U.S. new vehicle industry, there are other, broader global factors at work. A look at the worldwide strategies of the automakers and the patterns of the global economy frequently reveals the underlying causes for the results we witness here in the U.S."

    Myth No. 2: The world is running out of oil.

    For years, it has been assumed that oil is a finite resource that the world would soon exhaust. One prevalent theory was "peak oil." At some point, global oil production would hit a high point and then decline, causing grave shortfalls. Pessimistic predictions had that either the peak had already occurred or that it would occur shortly.

    In fact, a new report by The Royal Institute of International Affairs in the U.K., informally known as Chatham House, finds that the threat of oil running out is no longer imminent, and the concept of peak oil increasingly looks like a bad idea. The world is faced not with a finite amount of oil but merely needs to accelerate the speed at which surprisingly large resources of oil can be converted into proven reserves for potential production. (Thanks to the web site The Truth About Cars for alerting me to this report).

    The amazing fact is that because of higher prices and better technology, we keep finding more oil that we can extract. From 1980 to 2011, the report says, the world produced 100 billion more barrels of oil than there was supposed to be in the ground, and proven reserves remaining for future production more than doubled.

    Moreover, even with no further discoveries or additions, a 54-years supply of oil is left at current rates of consumption. In reality, the petroleum industry can expect an even longer life because more oil will be found in existing deposits, there will be new discoveries, and consumption will decline as prices rise.