中国经济放缓被夸大

    随着中国经济减速，很多人开始担忧，这个世界第二大经济体创纪录的增长是否已接近尾声。中国国家统计局(the National Bureau of Statistics)上周发布数据称，最近一个季度，中国国内生产总值增长7.4%，增长势头良好。但同时可以看到的是，增速已连续第七个季度下滑。经济学家们普遍都预计到了这样的状况，但仍有理由相信中国经济放缓势头不会持久，至少不会像一些人预计的那么严重。

    鉴于中国经济的好坏直接影响到美国和世界其他地区的经济增长，这一话题如今显得特别重要。在美国总统大选第三场辩论，也是最后一场辩论中，我们看到了这一话题的意义重大。大多数人原本以为会在辩论中听到总统候选人痛斥中国，但这一幕并未出现。或许奥巴马和罗姆尼已意识到，中国经济的崛起对于美国可能利大于弊。

    中国的经济增长在上海、北京等大城市或许已见顶。但旧金山联邦储备银行（San Francisco Federal Reserve）的两位经济学家称，在中国看起来无限广阔的农村地区，经济增长还有很大空间。伊斯雷尔•马尔金和马克•施皮格尔在上周发布的一份报告中提出了一个很有意思的命题，为什么投资者应当乐观看待中国？

    历史告诉我们，一个国家的经济不能永远保持高速增长。研究显示，到某一时刻，通常当人均收入达到17,000美元左右时，经济增速就会开始以每年约2%的速度下滑，因为工资上涨侵蚀了这个国家相比其他经济体的竞争力。以美国为例，它损失的很多制造业工作都流向了亚洲、拉丁美洲和其他工资低很多的地方。2011年，美国人均收入达到48,442美元。中国人均收入远远落后这个数字，仅为5,445美元，但很快就会接近经济学家们声称经济将见顶的17,000美元关口。

    不过，中国的经济增长历程早已证明它的与众不同。正如马尔金和施皮格尔指出的那样，中国经济已持续高增长达30多年——远远超出其他经济体高增长平均持续不超过10年的纪录。

    而且，中国经济的发展还相当不平衡。因此，未来一些年，中国欠发达地区的经济增长将提速，而大城市的发展将降温。根据亚洲其他经济体这些年来的经济增长方式，研究者们建立了一个演变模型：中国较发达省份的经济增速在本十年末将降至5.5%，而欠发达省份将上升至7.5%——更接近经济学家普遍认为需要保持就业增长和社会稳定的8%增速。

    虽然所有这些都可能会实现，但研究人员还是给出了一项警告。中国经济增长的很大一部分一直来自于受出口推动的制造业和其他行业。因此，沿海省份通常发展快很多，而内陆地区经济发展落后。那些希望加快经济增速的地区需要建设像沿海省份那样良好的基础设施、物流和衔接出口市场。

    但更为重要的是，中国的未来很大程度上将取决于政府能不能将更多的钱放进消费者口袋，减少对投资和出口的投入，从而缓解收入差异问题。中国官员探讨如何重新平衡经济这个问题已经有很多年了。虽然政府在努力增加从医疗到教育等众多方面的支出，贫富差距仍然在持续扩大，日益成为拖累经济增长的因素。

    As China's economy slows, many have wondered if record growth in the world's second-largest economy has approached the beginning of the end. During the latest quarter, China's gross domestic product rose 7.4%, still a healthy clip but also the seventh straight quarter of decline, the National Bureau of Statistics reported last week. Economists widely expected this, but there's reason to believe that the slowdown won't be permanent or at least not as severe as some think.

    The topic is especially important today, given that the health of China's economy impacts growth in the U.S. and the rest of the world. We saw the relevance Monday night during the third and final Presidential debate. The all-out China bashing that most had expected never really materialized. Perhaps President Obama and Governor Romney got the memo that China's economic rise probably does more good than harm to America.

    China's growth might have peaked in bigger cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing. However, there's plenty of room for development across the country's seemingly endless swaths of rural lands, according to two economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. In a report released last week, Israel Malkin and Mark Spiegel build an interesting case for why investors should be bullish on China.

    History has shown that countries don't usually grow at rapid rates forever. At some point, typically when income per capita reaches about $17,000, growth on average starts to decline about 2% a year as higher wages gnaw at a country's ability to compete with other economies, studies show. Think of the U.S., which has lost countless manufacturing jobs to Asia, Latin America and other places where pay is a lot lower. As of 2011, income per capita in the U.S. was $48,442. While China lags far behind at $5,445, it will soon approach the $17,000 threshold at which economists say growth has peaked.

    But China's growth story has already proven to be quite different. As Malkin and Spiegel point out, it has seen rapid growth for over 30 years – far exceeding other economies where record growth on average lasts for no more than 10 years.

    What's more, development in China is deeply uneven. So in the years ahead, growth across less developed parts of the country could pick up where development in bigger cities cool off. Based on the way other Asian economies have expanded over the years, the researchers created a model for how this could play out: Whereas China's more developed provinces may slow to 5.5% by the close of the decade, growth in the country's less-developed provinces is expected to rise to 7.5% -- closer to the 8% rate that economists widely say is needed to maintain jobs growth and therefore social stability.

    While all this could pan out, the researchers point out a caveat. Much of China's growth has been from manufacturing and other industries driven by exports. As a result, coastal provinces have generally developed much more quickly while the country's inland regions languish behind. For these areas to see faster growth, they'll need the kind of infrastructure and access to shipping and export markets that coastal provinces have enjoyed.

    More importantly, though, China's future will rest largely on how well its government can ease income disparities by putting more money in the pockets of consumers and less on investment and exports. Officials have talked about rebalancing the economy for years. And while government efforts are under way to boost spending on everything from healthcare to education, the growing divide between rich and poor persists and has increasingly contributed to the pullback on growth.