谷歌新品提前泄密背后的真相

    听说谷歌（Google）提早发布的声明了吗？不，我说的不是10月19日上午比预期提前几个小时发布的财报。这次泄密使谷歌股价立遭重挫，截至纳斯达克收市时已下跌了9%。

    谷歌在周四又出了一次时间上纰漏。那天，我正坐在位于旧金山的谷歌办公室里，听着该公司新产品Chromebook笔记本电脑的演示会。这款产品原本计划于当日晚些时候推出。但是，我在谷歌搜索栏中输入“Chromebook”，结果显示的第一个搜索结果居然就是这个仍处于保密阶段的产品页面。天哪！

    我之所以提到Chromebook的发布会，是因为我们或许能借此正确地分析出谷歌提前发布这份令人失望的财报背后的原因。Chromebook在一年多前首次销售时就成绩平平。这种电脑的功能有限，而且缺乏完善的操作系统，充其量只是一个增强版的网页浏览器，只能在有Wifi信号的区域使用。

    而三星（Samsung）Chromebook这款新产品看起来则有点像一本“超级书册”。它轻便（2.5磅），超薄（0.8英寸），有很长的电池续航时间（6.5小时），还可以免费使用100GB的谷歌在线云存储，播放1080p的高清视频。最棒的是，它的售价仅为249美元。这一切都比早期那个又大又笨重、售价至少349美元的版本更有吸引力。谷歌Chrome的高级副总裁桑达•皮采认为，这个价位能让一般家庭将它作为一台额外的家庭电脑来使用。比如在厨房放上一台，或是给孩子买上一台。皮采说：“我们真的希望这款产品能适合家庭中的每个成员使用。”

    没人能保证周一上市的全新Chromebook能够大卖。不过与那些使用最新微软（Microsoft）Windows系统、而且更加昂贵的竞争对手相比，这款产品势必更受瞩目。我觉得，谷歌开发Chromebook的初衷——发明一台能联网、而且不需要软件升级和管理的计算机，是谷歌长期致力于科技研发的一个象征。Chromebook的研发始于2009年，当时谷歌首次发布了Chrome OS操作系统。如今谷歌将赌注加倍，策划出这款新产品的营销计划。消费者能在500家百思买（Best Buy）门店、亚马逊网上商城（Amazon.com）和谷歌在线商店（Google’s Play store）买到这款产品。

    尽管谷歌不是所有的长期努力都获得了成功，但重要的是，谷歌还拥有YouTube、谷歌地图、Chrome浏览器和安卓（Android）系统。它们弥补了谷歌偶尔的失败，并让谷歌多年来一直都走在科技领域的最前沿。

    当然，如果谷歌挣钱的能力开始下降，这一切都只能成为苍白的粉饰。再让我们回头来看看那份令人失望的财报。销售额低于分析师的预期。（谷歌向来不提供对自身的预估。）利润开始下降。和一年前相比，广告商为每次广告点击所支付的费用下降了15%，这让投资者们感到十分恐慌。使用移动设备进行搜索所产生的利润也不如使用个人电脑搜索带来的利润高，这一点则加剧了投资者们的恐慌。

    周二，谷歌在亚利桑那州召开了Zeitgeist年会，我借此机会向谷歌CEO佩奇提出了这个问题，下面是他回答的要点。

    佩奇说：“人们希望能够随时随地使用电脑，这个需求能给我们提供很多机遇。我认为，货币化将会加速，会产生更多的机遇，我们的产品也将更好地为人类服务。我认为谷歌非常明白这个道理，因此这对我们而言是件好事，而不是障碍。”他还说：“人们在经历这些变化时可能会遇到一些困难，不过我们开发的许多产品在智能手机上都运行得非常好。”（在周四与财务分析师的电话中，佩奇给出了类似的回答。）

    Did you hear about Google's premature announcement? No, not the mid-morning earnings release, hours ahead of schedule, which sent Google shares plummeting 9% before trading had to be halted on the Nasdaq.

    On Thursday Google (GOOG) suffered from another untimely leak. As I sat inside Google's San Francisco office listening to a presentation on the company's new Chromebook laptop, which was to be publicly unveiled later in the day, I googled "Chromebook" and the first result that came up was the product page for the still secret device. Oops.

    The reason I mention the Chromebook announcement is that it may help put Google's early and disappointing earnings announcement in perspective. Chromebooks, which first began selling a little over a year ago, have hardly been a success. They have limited capabilities, and since they don't run a full-fledged operating system, but rather a sort of Web browser on steroids, they are meant to be used within range of a Wifi connection.

    But the new Samsung Chromebook, as this device is called, looks a bit like an "ultra-book." It is elegant, light (2.5 pounds), thin (0.8 inches) and is said to have a long battery life (6.5 hours). It comes with 100GB of free cloud storage on Google Drive and runs 1080p video. Best of all, it is priced at just $249. All that makes it far more attractive than earlier, bulkier models, whose prices started at $349 and up. Sundar Pichai, senior vice president of Chrome at Google, said the pricing would allow families to use them as extra machines to have around the house. Leave one in the kitchen, perhaps, or hand one to the kids. "We really want this to be for everyone in the family," Pichai said.

    There is no guarantee that the new Chromebook, which goes on sale Monday, will be a hit. But it's bound to look attractive when compared to competing devices running new versions of Microsoft (MSFT) Windows, which will be more expensive. And more to my point, the whole Chromebook initiative -- creating a Web-connected computer that requires no software upgrades or management -- is emblematic of the kind of long-term technology bet Google is known for. The Chromebook effort began in 2009, when Google first announced the Chrome OS operating system. Now the company is doubling down on that bet, planning a marketing campaign to promote the new machine, which will be available at 500 Best Buys (BBY), and online on Amazon.com (AMZN) and Google's Play store.

    Not all of Google's long-term bets have been successful. But what matters is that those that have - YouTube, Maps, the Chrome browser and Android, for example -- have more than compensated for the duds, and they have kept Google at the forefront of the tech industry for years.

    Of course, all that would turn into window dressing if Google's ability to make money starts to sputter. And that brings me back to the disappointing earnings report. Sales missed analysts' projections. (Google has a practice of not providing its own forecasts.) Profit was down. Investors were especially rattled by the fact that the price that advertisers pay for every click dropped 15%, compared to a year earlier. That heightened persistent fears among investors that search on mobile devices may not be as profitable as on PCs.

    On Tuesday, at Google's Zeitgeist conference in Arizona, I had the opportunity to ask Page precisely that question. Here's are the salient points of he made.

    "There is so much opportunity based on always having a computer with you knowing where it is," Page said. "I think monetization is going to go up. Opportunities are going to go up, products are going to work better for people. I think Google is pretty good at understanding that, so I think that's a benefit to us, not a hindrance." He added: "There will be some disruption as people go through those changes. But a lot of the things we do work great on a smartphone." (Page gave similar answers on Thursday during a call with financial analysts.)