中日领土争端殃及日本车企

    近期，中日双方就东海的几个小岛发生纠纷，导致在华日资车企的销售业绩遭受重创。不过这一争端让其他外国车企坐收意外之财，尤其是韩国最大的车企——现代汽车（Hyundai）。

    由于遭到众多中国消费者的抵制，丰田（Toyota）、本田（Honda）和日产（Nissan）分别宣布财务状况或生产计划遭受不利影响。而与此同时，现代则称，第三财季在华销售增长19%，当季利润增长13%。从7月到9月，日系汽车在华销售暴跌41%。

    日本的汽车产业堪称该国经济“皇冠上的明珠”。汽车产业咨询公司LMC Automotive近期发布的一份报告称，由于本次争端，中国“不排除继续排挤日系车企的可能，借此打击日本经济”。

    9月份，日本公布了一份计划，将从私人业主手中购买其称之为“尖阁列岛”（中国称为“钓鱼岛”），改变了该岛的归属现状，激怒了中国政府，中国各地随之爆发各类抗议活动。

    10月31日，《金融时报》（Financial Times）刊发了一则对日产汽车首席执行官卡洛斯•戈恩的采访。戈恩称，中日关系破裂将延缓日产在中国市场的积极扩张计划。他说，一家计划于2014年在大连建成的工厂仍在按部就班地施工。但进一步投资将更为谨慎。9月，日产在华销售下降了35%；他表示，日产可能无法实现明年3月截止的本财年年度销售目标。

    本田在华销售也剧降了40%。本周初，考虑到中国消费者对其采取的抵制，它下调了盈利预期。

    LMC Automotive的分析师蒂姆•邓恩称：“很难说抗议活动还将持续多久。”他表示，由于涉及岛屿的历史根源“时间久远，这次如果不是因为电视报道，不会引起这么多人的关注。这是个自我发酵的事件”。

    近几年来，日系车企可谓一直厄运连连。在本土，它们遭受了重大自然灾害的冲击，在泰国受到洪水侵袭。在美国，丰田因所谓的质量问题引发舆论哗然，而这一问题事后证明大部分都证据不足。

    这次中国消费者针对日本汽车的怒火让人想起了20世纪80年代美国人对日本进口产品的广泛抵制，这一事件促使北美的日本厂商和供应商加快了开放步伐。

    据LMC Automotive称，日系豪华车品牌雷克萨斯（Lexus）、讴歌（Acura）和英菲尼迪（Infiniti）将奋力度过当前的难关，而宝马（BMW）和奥迪（Audi）则趁着此次事件坐收渔翁之利。但在运动型多功能车的市场上，日系车企仍然占有优势，因为欧洲厂商提供的竞争产品并不多。

    最近，中国开始加强了对钓鱼岛的沿海巡逻，同时加大了外交攻势，意味着对日系车企来说情况不会很快改观。在这一情况下，本田、丰田和日产可能必须谋求拓展其他市场——美国、俄罗斯、巴西或是其他发展中国家。尽管对日企而言，中国目前是最动荡不安的市场，但没有哪家日系车企能承受撤出中国汽车市场的代价，因为它同时也是全球发展最快的汽车市场。

    译者：清远

    The dispute between China and Japan over a few small islands in the East China Sea is wreaking havoc on Japanese automakers selling vehicles in China. The row has provided an unexpected dividend to non-Japanese competitors, notably Hyundai, South Korea's largest automaker.

    Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) have each announced negative impacts to financial results or vehicle production schedules as many Chinese consumers boycott their brands. Hyundai, meanwhile, said third-quarter profit rose 13% as vehicle sales in China surged 19% in the period. From July through September, sales of Japanese cars dropped a staggering 41% in China.

    Japan's auto industry is "the pearl in the crown" of the nation's economy. China "will not rule out the possibility of continuing to squeeze Japanese companies in order to hit the Japanese economy" as a result of the dispute, according to an October report of LMC Automotive Ltd., a consultancy.

    Protests in China broke out in September after Japan announced it was buying what it calls the Senkaku Islands (or Diaoyu in Chinese) from private owners, thus changing the status quo and infuriating the Chinese government.

    In an interview published Oct. 31 in the Financial Times, Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan, said a breakdown in relations between Japan and China could slow Nissan's aggressive expansion plans. He said a factory in Dalian, China scheduled for construction in 2014 remains on track. But further investments will be viewed cautiously. Nissan sales in China were off 35% in September; he said the automaker may not achieve its annual sales goal for the fiscal year ended in March.

    Earlier in the week Honda, whose China sales were down 40%, lowered its profit forecast, based on the consumer boycott of its vehicles.

    Tim Dunne, an analyst with LMC Automotive, said "it's hard to know how long the protests will continue" in China. The historical context of the disputed islands "happened so long ago, many people wouldn't be aware of it if it hadn't been put on TV. It feeds upon itself," he said.

    Japanese automakers have been struggling with remarkable bad fortune, having suffered from natural disaster in their own country, floods in Thailand -- and in the case of Toyota, an uproar over product quality in the U.S. that proved to be largely unfounded.

    The anger by Chinese consumers against Japanese cars recalls a popular backlash in the U.S. in the 1980s against Japanese imports, which helped accelerate the opening of Japanese factories and suppliers across North America.

    According to LMC Automotive, Japanese luxury brands Lexus, Acura and Infiniti will struggle as BMW and Audi pick up the slack. But the Japanese have an advantage in the sport-utility vehicle market, with the Europeans not offering much in the way of competition.

    China has lately been stepping up its maritime patrols around the disputed islands, while amping up diplomatic rhetoric, suggesting that conditions may not soon improve for Japanese automakers. In that case, Honda, Toyota and Nissan may have to look elsewhere to expand -- the U.S., Russia, Brazil or possibly in developing nations. No Japanese automaker can afford to pull the plug on China's auto market, the fastest-growing in the world– and now the most volatile.