奥巴马将向富人加税

    美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马上周五的讲话应该是已经讲得清清楚楚，明明白白。他愿意向共和党人做出妥协，以免美国跌落财政悬崖，但不会再次同意延长给美国富人带来实惠的布什减税措施。

    我们应该预料到他会坚持这样的立场，即便美国国内对这个问题的担心大幅上升——这个问题如果处理不好，必定会将美国推入又一场代价沉重的衰退；我们应该预计他能获胜。

    给最高收入人群加税，是美国新的一年将自动生效的很多财政措施之一。财政悬崖预计将直接造成财政收缩，达到GDP的4%左右。此外，它还会造成负面的经济和金融乘数效应，以及一些不得力的财政政策导致的效率低下。

    总的来说，结果将是伴随着高失业率和有限的政策灵活度（政策利率早已低到不能再低，接近于零），缓慢增长的美国经济将变得更加虚弱。而且，我们也不应该忘记，美国还面临着欧债危机、中国经济放缓和中东局势不稳等外围不利环境。

    这个财政方案似乎就是故意要造成不可收拾的经济局面，令即便是支持中期财政调整者也不由得心生犹豫。事实上，这个方案本来也没打算要付诸实施。这个方案可能产生的严重后果是为了唬住我们的政客们，让他们接受另一套更可行的财政改革方案。

    但这个策略的设计者并没有充分考虑到困扰美国政治系统的极端两极化现象。两党互不信任，没有可信的执行工具，因此，这个威胁并不管用。因此，现在美国看到的可能前景是：人忧心忡忡：2013年可能再次陷入衰退、失业率重新回到9%上方以及年轻人和长期失业数据更加糟糕。

    美国总统奥巴马愿意从“小处”妥协避免这样的局面，但前提是对美国最富人群的税率要恢复到原有的水平，回到布什时代的起点。针对最富人群的这项减税政策原本计划是临时的、可逆转的(如今已执行了12年)。

    共和党人说，没门。对他们而言，任何妥协都必须包括维持减税方案这个条件。

    President Barack Obama's remarks on Friday should leave no doubt in anyone's mind. While he is willing to compromise with the Republicans to prevent the United States from going over the fiscal cliff, he will NOT do so by again agreeing to extend the Bush tax cuts for the richest Americans.

    We should expect him to maintain this position, even as the nation's anxiety increases with respect to this self-inflicted problem that, if handled badly, would unambiguously push the country into another costly recession; and we should expect him to prevail.

    Higher tax rates for top earners are one of the many fiscal measures that would automatically go into effect in the New Year. The projected economic impact of this fiscal cliff is a direct fiscal contraction of some 4% of GDP. There would also be negative economic and financial multiplier effects as well as inefficiencies arising from the rather blunt composition of the fiscal measures.

    In combination, the consequences would be debilitating for our slow-growing economy with high unemployment and limited policy flexibility, on account of policy interest rates that are already floored at zero. And we also should not forget that the U.S. faces headwinds from the European debt crisis, a slowing China and instability in the Middle East.

    This fiscal package was purposely designed to be extremely unpleasant for the economy – even for one that needs medium-term fiscal consolidation. Indeed, it was never meant to be implemented. Instead, its nasty potential consequences were meant to scare our politicians into agreeing to a much more sensible set of fiscal reforms.

    But the designers of this strategic approach failed to fully consider the extreme polarization besetting our political system. With each party lacking trust in the other, and with no credible instrument of cohesive enforcement, the threat has not worked. So America is now looking at the worrisome possibility of a recession in 2013, joblessness surging back above 9%, and the young and long-term unemployment languishing even more.

    President Obama is ready to compromise on a "mini bargain" to avoid this, but only if taxes on the richest Americans are allowed to go back up – thus completing the Bush era round-trip voyage for what were meant to be temporary and reversible tax cuts for the highest earners (and that have now persisted for 12 years).

    Republicans say no way. For them, any compromise must include maintaining the cuts.