大商机：美国成世界头号产油国之后

    上周，国际能源署（International Energy Agency）的最新报告宣称，全球能源格局将大变脸，到2020年美国或成全球最大的产油国。

    就在这一预言发布的同时，美国国内关于利用本土可靠能源资源的讨论正在如火如荼地进行，这一行业吸引的资本也接连创造新高。巴拉克·奥巴马赢得连任竞选后还不到一周，包括能源计划在内的英国秋季预算报告（Autumn Statement）也将在一周后出炉。如果国际能源署的预测成真，它将带来长远的影响。

    美国国内能源供应增长的影响早已在美国国内政策、地缘政治、企业资源和配置等方面有所体现。今年以来，美国原油进口量下降了11%，而国内石油产量预计将创下1991年以来的新高。而且，美国过去一度被认为需要不断增加天然气进口，但它如今已经有望成为液化天然气（LNG）的出口大国。Cheniere等公司正在纷纷申请建设LNG出口接收站。

    把握这一增长趋势，从中获利的方式有很多。这个趋势将对能源投资领域产生相应影响，特别是围绕以下主题：

科技进步越来越广泛

    对于一个通常被视为保守和谨慎的行业，当前美国国内油气产量的增长堪称迅猛。很多因素共同推动了这一现象，但显然，科技进步的影响力位居前列。开采技术的大幅进步能让我们更经济地从油田中获取页岩气、页岩油和重油，提炼技术的发展帮助解决了加工这些非传统资源带来的挑战。

    尤其是水力压裂技术和水平钻探技术的推广，使得这些非传统的油气储备能得以利用，将美国从石油和天然气供应不足变成了供应富余。但科技的发展并不仅限于此——比如，重油油田和钻探深度越来越深的海上钻探。每天，科技都在众多领域创造形形色色的机会，以有竞争力的成本将这类资源变得可用。软件也非常重要，它们增强了我们对地震探测和其他大量油田数据的分析能力，同时还帮助开采公司更好地发现、跟踪和管理油气资产。

    Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a radical shift in the global energy balance of power when it announced that the U.S. is poised to become the world's largest oil producer by 2020.

    This comes at a time when unlocking reliable sources of domestic energy is at the forefront of conversation in this country and investors continue to deploy record amounts of capital into the sector. Less than a week after the reelection of President Barack Obama and only one week before the U.K.'s Autumn Statement, which is expected to contain a proposed energy plan, the IEA's prediction – if realized – will have long-term, far-reaching implications.

    The effects of this supply growth are already being experienced in domestic policy, geopolitics, corporate resources and allocation, and more. Crude imports have fallen 11% this year, and the U.S. is expected to produce the most oil since 1991. Moreover, whereas the U.S. was once expected to become a growing importer of natural gas, it is now forecast to become a large supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with companies like Cheniere racing to permit and construct LNG export terminals.

    There are a number of ways to capitalize on this growth. It will have a corresponding impact on the energy investment landscape, particularly around the following themes:

Broad advancements in technology

    For an industry generally regarded as conservative and cautious, the current rise in domestic oil and gas production has been remarkably rapid. A number of forces have driven this phenomenon, but clearly technology developments have been among the most impactful. Significant advances in extraction technology have allowed us to remove shale gas, shale oil and heavier grades of crude out of the field more cost effectively and advances in refining technology have helped deal with the challenges associated with processing these unconventional resources.

    In particular, the sweeping rollout of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling to unlock reserves of these unconventional hydrocarbon plays is turning a gas and oil deficit in the U.S. into a surplus. Yet the technological boom is broader -- focusing, for instance, on heavy oil fields, and offshore regions where drilling is challenged to go deeper and deeper. In many areas, opportunities are created everyday by technologies that can make such resources available at a competitive price. Furthermore, software has played an important role as well by increasing our ability to analyze seismic and other intensive amounts of oil field data to help producers better find, track and manage more cost effectively oil and gas assets in the field.